Category Archives: Cost Management

An optimistic view from health system workforce leaders

Posted on by • Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Crisis, Crisis Management, Cross-Training, Economic Crisis, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Flex Staffing, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Leadership, Nurses, Restructure, Robotic Process Automation, Talent Identification, Talent Management, Turnaround, Workforce Over-Specialized • Leave a comment

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Aldous Huxley and Brave New World: The Dark Side of Pleasure

Continuing our series of Gist member convenings to discuss the “Brave New World” that awaits in the post-pandemic era, we brought together a group of senior human resources and nursing executives this week for a Zoom roundtable.

Several themes emerged from the discussion. First, there was general consensus that the COVID crisis exposed a workforce that had become over-specialized and inflexible. Said one chief nursing officer, “Our workforce is much more brittle than we thought.” A key lesson learned is the need for increased cross-training—especially for nurses, and especially in critical care. Systems should work now to increase the supply of nurses comfortable in an ICU environment to enable hospitals to flex staff across settings and roles to deal with future waves of the virus.

Not surprisingly, layoffs were top-of-mind for many. Executives were of one mind on the need to safeguard clinical staff as much as possible, and many systems are now considering deep cuts to management and administrative ranks: “It’s easier to stand in front of your clinical staff and be able to say you’ve stripped millions from administration before turning to clinical cuts.”

There was broad consensus for the potential for artificial intelligence and robotic process automation to enable greater reliability and productivity at lower cost in areas such as billing, coding, and even some clinical functions—and that the pandemic will accelerate plans to implement these solutions.

On a more optimistic note, one executive shared that “relationships between clinicians and administrators have never been stronger. The pandemic has forced us to have difficult and constructive conversations we would have never had the courage to have before.”

Another noted the pandemic has spotlighted new leadership talent who might otherwise have been overlooked, and plans are now in place to formally recognize and retain newly crisis-tested talent for the work of restructuring the system.

On the whole, the discussion was far more upbeat that we had expected—as difficult as the crisis has been for many teams, the opportunity to rethink old ways of doing business seems to have created renewed enthusiasm even in the face of daunting financial and operational challenges ahead.

 

Is it time for hospital at home?

Posted on by • Posted in Consumerism, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Health System, Home Care, Hospital, Hospital at Home, Hospital Industry, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Pandemic, Quality of Care, Telemedicine • Leave a comment

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JAMA - The John A. Hartford Foundation

We’ve long been intrigued by “hospital at home” care models, which deliver hospital-level care for acute conditions, supported by caregivers and technology, in a patient’s home. Stymied by the lack of payment, however, few health systems have pursued the approach. But as COVID-19 has made patients fearful of entering hospitals, we’ve had a flurry of health system leaders ask us whether they should consider launching a program now.

We think the answer is yes—with some caveats. A growing body of evidence supports its use. Cost of care is lower compared to a traditional inpatient stay. Patient satisfaction with care is high. And from a clinical perspective, hospital at home is well-established, capable of managing a number of mild- and moderate-acuity medical conditions, including exacerbations of chronic diseases like heart failure and diabetes, as well as infections like pneumonia and cellulitis, often better than a traditional hospital stay. Some programs are now using hospital at home for management of COVID-19 patients as well. Physician leaders we’ve spoken with are also interested in using the approach to manage post-operative recovery.

“Over half of our joint replacement patients spend time in skilled nursing or inpatient rehab,” one doctor told us. “People think those places are death traps now, and those cases aren’t coming back until we can find another way for them to recover.”

For patients averse to facility-based care, and systems wanting to offer an alternative, hospital at home sounds like a panacea. But experts recommend approaching it with a clear eye to the economics and ramp-up time, which can easily take 12 to 18 months. With emergency regulations released last month, Medicare will now provide payment for hospital care provided in an alternate setting, including the patient’s home—although it’s unclear whether that will continue once the COVID emergency ends. Commercial payer coverage usually requires a separate negotiation.

According to one leader, “Grass roots support of doctors is not enough. The CEO and CFO have to be on board with changing the care and payment model if it’s ever going to be more than a pilot.” But with patients and doctors becoming more comfortable with virtual care and open to new options, there is a a window of opportunity for expanding home-based care—and the longer the COVID-19 crisis lasts, the more hospital at home could provide a competitive advantage over being admitted to a busy, crowded inpatient hospital.

 

 

 

COVID-19 brings largest quarterly GDP drop since last recession

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Recession, Social Distancing, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance • Leave a comment

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/covid-19-brings-largest-quarterly-gdp-drop-since-last-recession.html?utm_medium=email

GDP sinks 4.8% in the first quarter, biggest drop since 2008 and ...

Gross domestic product in the U.S. fell 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the biggest drop the nation’s economy has seen since the last recession in 2008, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The downturn reflects how shutdowns of businesses and schools and social distancing, which started in the final three weeks of the first quarter, affected the U.S. economy. According to The Journal, many economists believe the U.S. is now in a recession, as layoffs and declines across industries hit unprecedented levels.

With the economy largely shut down in April, economists are expecting a bigger drop-off in economic activity in the second quarter of this year. A few states have started to slowly reopen their economies, but many still have social-distancing restrictions in place that extend through May.

 

 

 

 

Healthcare CFOs weigh-in on the challenges ahead

Posted on by • Posted in Capital Budget, Cash, Cash Reserves, Cash-Flow Improvements, CFO, Change, Change Management, Communication, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Crisis, Crisis Management, Cybersecurity, Economic Crisis, Economy, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Leadership, Leadership Cares, Leadership Flexibility, Mergers & Acquisitions, Net Income, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Quarantine, Recession, Remote Work, Sick Leave, Social Distancing, Supply Chain, Telemedicine, Uncertainty, Worker Protection • Leave a comment

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/pwc-covid-19-cfo-pulse-survey.html

What CFOs think about the economic impact of COVID-19

How finance leaders see a return to work

Business perspectives on what it will take to shift from crisis mode are solidifying. US finance leaders are focused on shoring up financial positions, as US businesses head into a period of even more operational complexity while they orchestrate a safe return to the workplace. Back-to-work playbooks put workforce health first, as companies set course for a phased-in return to the workplace that will not be uniform across the US or internationally, findings from the survey show. Returning employees and customers are going to experience a work environment that will differ in marked ways as a result. Another change likely to endure post-crisis is the strong role corporate leaders have taken within their communities, placing a renewed emphasis on environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts going forward.

The actions CFOs are taking show how US businesses continue to adjust to very difficult current conditions with an eye toward an evolving post-COVID world. The level of concern related to the crisis is holding steady. It is high but stabilizing, with 72% of respondents reporting that COVID-19 has the potential for “significant impact” to their business operations vs. 74% two weeks ago.

Key findings

Back-to-work playbooks reshape how jobs performed
49% say remote work is here to stay for some roles, as companies plan to alternate crews and reconfigure worksites.

Protecting people top of mind
77% plan to change safety measures like testing, while 50% expect higher demand for enhanced sick leave and other policy protections.

Substantive impacts expected in 2020 results
Half of all respondents (53%) are projecting a decline of at least 10% in company revenue and/or profit this year.

Cost pressures intensify
A third (32%) expect layoffs to occur, as CFOs continue to target costs, while 70% consider deferring or canceling planned investments.

Economic events shaping CFO response last week

This survey, our fourth since emergency lockdowns took effect in the US, reflects the views of 305 US finance leaders during the week of April 20. It was a week when oil futures traded below $0 as energy markets confronted downshifting global demand, Congress replenished emergency funding of $480 billion for small firms and healthcare systems, and everyone heard the call to get ready to go back to work as the US and Europe firmed up plans to ease quarantines.

Post-crisis world taking shape in plans to reboot the workplace

Health and safety are top priorities for leaders as they prepare to bring people back to on-site work. More than three-quarters (77%) are putting new safety measures in place, while others are taking steps to promote physical distancing, such as reconfiguring workspaces (65%). Findings also show where the virus may have longer-lasting impact on ways of working. Half (49%) of companies say they’re planning to make remote work a permanent option for roles that allow. That’s even higher (60%) among financial services organizations.

Takeaways

Among the small percentage of companies that are beginning to bring people back, returning to work will not mean a return to normal. Companies should consider how to help frontline managers lead with empathy, to communicate transparently and make decisions quickly so employees understand where they stand, have access to the resources available to them, and can share feedback to ensure they feel safe and get what they need. Tools such as workforce location tracking and contact tracing can help support employees with suspected or confirmed infections, while also helping to identify the level of risk exposure. Companies looking to make remote work a permanent option will need to enable leaders to manage a blended workforce of on-site and remote workers during the next 12 to 18 months.

Given that many people may be wary of returning to on-site work, there’s an opportunity for companies to create more targeted benefits to help make the transition easier. Paid sick leaves and worker protections, help with childcare, private transportation to and from work, or other benefits could help employees who may need extra flexibility or who want additional support as they prepare to come back.

Forecasting substantive impacts on 2020 performance

A majority of respondents (80%) continue to expect a decline in revenues and/or profits in 2020. Projections by sector vary, with consumer markets likely the hardest hit: one-third (32%) of CFOs expect a 25% or greater decline in revenues and/or profits this year, compared to 24% of respondents in all sectors.

Takeaways

Outlooks for financial results have held relatively steady in the survey over the last month, and are probably indicative of actual impact. Companies have had the time to evaluate the effects. CFO projections for declining revenue and profits coincide with a widening realization that the US economy is in recession. Since mid-March, jobless claims have soared past 26 million, and Congress passed relief packages of $2.5 trillion. CFOs are evaluating a wide range of scenarios that cover the health situation, the shape of the economic recovery, the spillover into the financial markets, and the resulting impacts on their business. This crisis is setting a new benchmark standard for “unknowable.”

Cost pressures intensifying

CFOs are considering additional ways to scale back on planned investment and/or other fixed costs amid volatility in demand. A third (32%) expect layoffs to occur in the next month, up from 26% two weeks ago. Protecting cash and liquidity positions is paramount. Financial impacts of COVID-19, including effects on liquidity and capital resources, remain the top concern of CFOs (71%). Over half (56%) say they are changing company financing plans, up from 46% two weeks ago.

Among other actions, 43% plan to adjust guidance, which is consistent with responses two weeks ago. This figure will likely increase as companies go through the earnings season over the next two to three weeks. Separately, 91% of respondents are planning to include a discussion of COVID-19 in external reporting. Depending on the type of company, this can mean inclusion in financial statements and/or in risk factors and MD&A results of operations, earnings release or MD&A liquidity sections.

Takeaways

Many CFOs have focused on how they can manage their cash pressures to ride out the crisis. Common approaches have included stop-gap measures, such as hiring freezes and tightening controls on discretionary costs to put an end to travel and events, or the use of contractors. Findings show that these types of cost actions are likely to continue, and they remain at the top of the CFO agenda.

Of those who say they’re considering deferring or canceling planned investments, 80% are considering facilities and general capital expenditures. At the same time, investment programs in areas that are considered important to future growth — including digital transformations, customer experience, or cybersecurity and privacy — are less likely to be targeted. CFOs will increasingly look for ways to prioritize costs in these areas, as businesses grow more confident in recovery prospects — even though current demand is subdued.

Priorities to de-risk supply chains

As companies continue to wade through mitigation efforts and start to think about recovery, many are planning changes to make their supply chains more resilient. Findings show CFOs prioritizing specific actions: 56% cite developing alternate options for sourcing, and 54% say better understanding the financial and operational health of their suppliers.

Takeaways

Findings confirm an emphasis on de-risking supply chains, as companies prioritize the health and reliability of their supplier base among changes they’re planning as a result of COVID-19. In particular, there is a focus on managing risk around supply elements, such as reducing structural vulnerability with other sourcing options.

Some companies are starting to invest in creating data-backed profiles of their supplier base so they know where and when to look for second sources. Others are increasing communication with suppliers to better understand financial health. For many, conducting deeper financial and health reviews of suppliers will become a regular part of their business reviews. Physical supply chain relocations will likely happen only as a last resort, given the costs involved. However, automation of certain elements of the supply chain — to eliminate time-consuming manual tracking efforts and check tariff structures, for example — will likely become more common as companies seek better data to make more informed decisions.

Strategies yet to change, but tech likely to drive M&A

The impact of the outbreak on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategies remains mixed. While 40% of respondents say their company’s M&A strategy is not being affected by COVID-19, compared with 34% two weeks ago, one in five say it’s too difficult to assess what changes, if any, will need to be made to strategy. CFOs within the technology, media and telecommunications industry stand out in particular. They are less likely to report decreasing appetite for M&A due to COVID-19, compared with peers in other sectors, and 55% say the crisis hasn’t changed their M&A strategy.

Takeaways

These findings highlight the fundamental strengths of the tech sector and suggest it will be among those driving M&A in the months ahead.  Tech giants, in particular, have large cash reserves. Moreover, demand for some tech products and services is strong as businesses return to work — 40% of CFOs say they will accelerate automation and new ways of working as they transition back. Additionally, technologies such as drones, artificial intelligence and robotics, will likely enjoy wider adoption in the post-COVID-19 environment. This leaves tech better-positioned to weather the pandemic’s economic fallout and to execute on inorganic growth strategies. M&A is likely to recover faster than the US economy, with tech among the cash and capital-rich sectors leading the charge. PwC studies show that a combination of factors has been driving a decoupling of deals from the broader economy.

Business recovery timeframes have extended

Organizations are realizing the business recovery from the impacts of the virus will take longer. The March measures of manufacturing and services activities show sharp drops. Demand is not only declining, it’s shifting. Moreover, even as some US states start to reopen, difficulties in setting up testing could keep some states in a holding pattern. As a result, for CFOs, the time required to return to “business as usual” the moment that COVID-19 ends continues to lengthen. Currently, 48% believe it will take at least three months to return to normal, up from 39% two weeks ago.

Takeaways

As reality sets in and companies understand the true impacts to their operations, CFO perceptions of the length of time to business recovery has extended. According to our analysis of how companies gauge their response to the crisis in PwC’s COVID-19 Navigator diagnostic tool, the expected impact of COVID-19 on businesses globally remains high, with consumer markets and manufacturing the most susceptible among industries. Put another way, businesses that are less reliant on a large, complex supply chain to deliver products, or are able to work relatively effectively while remote, are also likely to be among the least exposed.

Consumer-facing companies reconfigure physical sites as shutdowns start to lift

Companies in consumer-facing sectors continue to contend with both sides of the demand equation, as consumers sheltering in place focus single-mindedly on essential products to the exclusion of other offerings. Consumer markets (CM) CFOs are more likely to list a decrease in consumer confidence and spending as a top-three concern than they were two weeks ago (66% vs. 50%). For CM CFOs, consumer confidence trends translate almost directly to revenues, with 32% projecting an adverse impact on revenue and/or profit of at least 25% in 2020, compared with 24% of respondents across all industries.

In response, almost three-quarters of CM CFOs (73%) are considering deferring or canceling planned investments, targeting mostly general capital expenses, such as facilities. They also say technologies that can improve their understanding of changes in customer demand are a top-three priority as they plan changes to their supply chain strategies (41% vs. 30% for all sectors).

CM CFOs are planning workplace safety measures (86% vs. 77% for all sectors) and reconfiguring work sites to promote physical distancing as part of their transition back to on-site work (77% vs. 65% for all sectors). They recognize that consumers want the assurance of a safe physical environment above all else, especially because the majority of CM products and services require a physical component, despite the continuing shift to online.

Takeaways

Consumer-facing companies continue to be among the hardest hit, as the public health crisis keeps the majority of consumers confined to their homes for now. As they grapple with immediate challenges, CM companies are pulling back on capital investments. However, most are still planning to shore up their digital presence in response to accelerated online demand that could last well beyond the recovery period.

Health system pivots to new ways of working

What’s on the mind of financial leaders in the health industry? As they plan to bring more of their workforce back on-site, they are more likely than leaders in other industries to be leaning on technology to help them manage staffing uncertainties. Fifty-four percent of healthcare CFO respondents said they plan to accelerate automation and new ways of working, compared with an average of 40% across all industries.

Healthcare organizations are simultaneously solving two critical issues: uncertainty about demand and protecting their workforce. Health organization CFOs (70%) were more likely than executives from other industries (an average of 50%) to report that they expect higher demand for employee protections in the next month. Meanwhile, consumer anxiety over their own safety is driving up uncertainty about demand for healthcare and medical products. Forty-one percent of healthcare finance leaders listed tools to better understand customer demand as a top-three priority area when considering changes to their supply chain strategies, compared to 30% of financial leaders in all sectors. Fifty-one percent of healthcare finance leaders said they are making staffing changes as a result of slowed demand.

Takeaways

A survey conducted by PwC’s Health Research Institute in early April found that some consumers are delaying care and medications amid the pandemic. In this latest PwC survey of CFOs, healthcare leaders report uncertainty about how much of their business will return as the threat of the pandemic ebbs, making staffing decisions difficult.

As the nation continues to grapple with the pandemic, getting back to work is top of mind for US financial leaders overall, but this is an especially pressing issue for health leaders. They must plan for their own workforces, while dealing with an unfolding financial calamity — 81% expect their company’s revenue and/or profits to decline this year as a result of COVID-19. On par with other industries, they expect this decline, even though their organizations play central roles in addressing the human toll of the pandemic. One strategy is to use telehealth technology to virtually care for patients, thereby protecting patients and caregivers during the pandemic.

Financial firms see fewer layoffs, but slower recovery

Financial services (FS) CFOs are bracing for a longer road back to normal. About a third (35%) now think it could take six months to get back to business as usual, up sharply from 15% just two weeks ago. They’re also more optimistic about the bottom line. More than a quarter (27%) of FS survey respondents expect revenue and/or profits to fall by 10% or less. Across all industries, only 18% felt as confident.

Takeaways

Banks are playing a critical role in helping stabilize the economy, as they work on the front lines to distribute CARES Act provisions. Along with insurers and asset managers, they also rely heavily on workers with specialized technical and institutional knowledge. This may explain why FS CFOs expect fewer layoffs (15% vs. 32% overall) or furloughs (17% vs. 44% overall) over the next month. Now, they’re trying to focus on keeping workers healthy and safe.

Conversations are starting to shift toward when and how to transition back to physical offices. For some employees, work may look very different: More FS CFOs are considering making remote work a permanent option for roles that allow it (60% vs. 49% overall). To better protect their employees, they’re also looking to evaluate new tools to support workforce tracking and contact tracing (32% vs. 22% overall) as part of the return-to-work process.

Deeper insight into health of suppliers is top priority for industrial products

The industrial products (IP) sector is in full-throttle cost-cutting mode. Nearly all IP CFOs (96%) report considering cost containment measures, compared with 87% two weeks ago. Some of this comes in the form of layoffs: 49% of IP CFOs expect layoffs to occur vs. 36% two weeks ago. The longer the crisis lasts, the longer the impact on recovery times for their business. When asked how long it would take for their business to return to business as usual if the COVID-19 crisis were to end today, 15% of IP CFOs said less than one month, down from 25% two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, they’re closely examining challenged supply chains. When asked to list their top-three priority areas when planning changes to supply-chain strategies, 66% of IP CFOs identified understanding the financial and operational health of their suppliers, compared to 54% of CFOs across all industries. A majority (56%) also cited developing additional and alternate sourcing options as a priority. And the extent of the financial damage is sinking in: 65% of IP CFOs estimate 2020 revenues and/or profits will drop at least 10%.

Takeaways

IP CFOs are signaling they’re in the thick of the crisis, as they absorb historical lows in production, with March US industrial output plunging to levels not seen since the end of WWII. Continued cost actions are still in the cards.

IP finance leaders are looking ahead to get back to business, with some already bringing workers back on-site. Some are expecting changes to the workplace. Thirty-nine percent of IP CFOs are considering making remote work a permanent option for roles that allow, and 31% are considering accelerating automation and new ways of working. While these are still early days for US producers in returning to work, bringing millions of workers back into the fold may well usher in more change management than the industry now expects.

Tech, media and telecom well-positioned to power the recovery

Technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) companies are well-positioned for recovery from the initial blow of COVID-19. As they stabilize operations in response to the crisis, the percentage of TMT CFOs anticipating revenue and/or profit declines is down 19 percentage points from two weeks ago to 65%. The data suggest that TMT companies are preparing for a future in which virtual work options gain greater acceptance over traditional office settings. TMT companies are more likely to reduce their real estate footprint as they transition back to on-site work (38% compared to 26% for all sectors), and 55% say they’re planning to make remote work permanent for positions that allow.

Of those who said they’re considering deferring or canceling planned investments, TMT companies are less likely to reduce digital transformation investments (13%) than all sectors (22%). Their increased optimism about digital investment as they strategize for the future is further borne out by the data: Two weeks ago, of those who said they were deferring or canceling planned investment, TMT was on track to reduce digital investments at the same rate as other sectors (25%).

Takeaways

The resilience of TMT companies is evident in their approach to this crisis. Bolstered by robust liquidity, the majority of companies in the sector are looking ahead to a recovery they will power by using both organic growth and M&A. In the wake of a crisis that has accelerated more widespread virtual connectivity, look for new emerging-tech-enabled business models to take shape.

Where to focus next

COVID-19 has put businesses under enormous strain to drive new ways of working. When the pandemic began, many companies put their people’s health and safety at the center of their decision-making, and they appear to be doing the same as they prepare to ramp up business. With most firms expecting to bring people back on-site in phases, leaders will need to help employees adjust to a changed environment while still managing the well-being, engagement and productivity of all workers. Purpose-led communication will continue to be critical to keep people informed, and leaders should demonstrate empathy while helping employees adjust to what will likely be an extended transition period. 

 

 

Ever-Rising Health Costs Worsen California’s Coronavirus Threat

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Health Insurance Benefit Design, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Market Consolidation, Market Power, Market Share, Out of Pocket Expenses, Underinsured, Uninsured • Leave a comment

Ever-Rising Health Costs Worsen California’s Coronavirus Threat

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As California and the nation prepare for the spread of the new coronavirus disease known as COVID-19, it is important to be reminded of another significant threat to the health of our people: the high costs of health care.

It is striking that one of the first steps policymakers must consider in the wake of an outbreak is waiving consumer cost sharing such as copays and co-insurance for coronavirus testing and treatment. Why? We’ve known for decades that the use of patient cost sharing is a blunt instrument that leads people to skimp on necessary services. In an era when the average deductible facing a working family in California now exceeds $2,700, it’s not hard to imagine how many people missed detection and treatment opportunities because they could not afford to pay for them.

The discussion around COVID-19 cost sharing is a reminder that coronavirus testing and treatment is not the only thing Californians forgo because of cost. The latest CHCF health policy poll found that in the last year, more than half of California families delayed or skipped care due to cost, including avoiding recommended medical tests or treatments, cutting medication doses in half, or postponing physical or mental health care. These practices are spreading, and they are making us sicker. Forty-three percent of those who postponed care said it made their conditions worse.

A close look at the survey data (PDF) shows that many Californians experience these problems, regardless of their health insurance status, income, or residence in high- or low-cost regions. And worries over health care costs are even more widely shared. More than two-thirds of state residents are worried about medical bills and out-of-pocket costs, including almost 60% of those with employer-sponsored insurance. These concerns reflect two unfortunate realities: We are all vulnerable to disease, and no one is immune from ruinous medical bills because of it.

A key reason for the growth in cost-related problems and worries for California families is the rise in underlying expenses within our health care system. Economists point to several factors that drive systemwide expenses, including new medical technologies and Californians’ health status. But none of these factors explains away the overall rise and dramatic variation in prices for the same procedures in different parts of the state, even after controlling for the complexity of the procedure and underlying costs like physician wages.

CHCF surveys of employer-sponsored insurance over the last decade show how much of this rise is being shifted to working California families in the form of higher insurance premiums and deductibles. The chart below shows the cumulative increase of inflation and wages along with premiums and deductibles for the average California family covered by a preferred provider organization (PPO) in a workplace health plan. While wage growth has barely kept pace with inflation, family premiums increased at more than twice that rate. It is especially striking that deductibles increased almost four times as much as wages.

California will not be an affordable place to live and raise a family unless it confronts the problem of unjustified, underlying health care costs. Expanding health insurance coverage, increasing subsidies, and limiting out-of-pocket expenses solve immediate problems, but sustained progress demands that we reduce systemwide expenditures for services that are not making Californians any healthier. Evidence suggests the opportunity for savings is significant.

In his state budget (PDF) released in January, California Governor Gavin Newsom proposed establishing an Office of Health Care Affordability to address underlying health care cost trends and to develop strategies and cost targets for different sectors of the health care industry. Other states have established offices or cost commissions of this type. A recent CHCF publication examined how four states have structured and empowered their commissions to successfully do this work.

As we confront the public health threat of COVID-19, we must remember that widespread cost-related access problems and worries already afflict most families in the state. In ways that few people anticipated before this year, this cost issue isn’t just a problem for strapped families — it’s a threat to the well-being of every last one of us.

 

 

 

 

Learning to live on Medicare margins

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, ACA, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Health Policy, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Medicare, Public Option • Leave a comment

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“If Democrats take back the Senate and win the White House, there’s a good chance they’ll implement some version of a public option or Medicare buy-in, and that would be devastating for the fragile economics of our health system.” That was the message delivered by the CEO of a system we were visiting recently, in her report to the board of directors.

That kind of alarmist message might seem career-limiting, but given the way the politics of healthcare are playing out at both the national and state levels (see Colorado and Washington State), it’s past time for executives to get beyond the rhetoric and begin to prepare for the real financial consequences of public option proposals.

That’s what this CEO had done—what followed the dire warning was a detailed analysis (which we helped assemble) of what would happen in various scenarios—what if one percent of our revenue shifted from commercial rates (around 250 percent of Medicare) to possible public option rates (somewhere between 140 and 180 percent of Medicare)? That’s a knowable number, and you can begin to make assumptions about how much business would shift under different scenarios, and how quickly.

The reality for health systems is that most of the margin comes from the 55-to-65-year-old population—who use more healthcare services but whose care is reimbursed at commercial rates. That cohort cross-subsidizes much of the rest of a typical hospital’s business.

The presentation to the board laid those economic realities out in concise detail—and provided a bracing wake-up call that the system needs to be prepared to live on a different level of margin than they enjoyed in the past.

That means radical cost controls, sharp reductions in “system bloat”, and a laser-like focus on shifting care to lower-cost settings. For years, hospital leaders have tossed around the notion that “we have to learn to live on Medicare margins”.

Given the rising popularity of public option policies (67 percent of Americans support the idea according to a recent poll, as do 42 percent of Republicans), that lesson may need to be learned sooner rather than later.