Category Archives: Physician Workforce

8 Reasons Hospitals must Re-think their Future

Posted on by • Posted in 2024 Election Issues, Affordability, Health Insurance Industry, Health Policy, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Inflation, Market Consolidation, Market Power, Media Backlash, Medical Debt, Medicare Funding, Medicare Payment, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Margin Drivers, Operating Metrics, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Physician Compensation, Physician Discontent, Physician Shortage, Physician Workforce, Strategic Change, Strategy, Strategy and Transformation, Surprise Bills, Survival Mode, Sustainable, Value-Based Healthcare • Leave a comment
8 Reasons Hospitals must Re-think their Future

Today is the federal income Tax Day. In 43 states, it’s in addition to their own income tax requirements. Last year, the federal government took in $4.6 trillion and spent $6.2 trillion including $1.9 trillion for its health programs. Overall, 2023 federal revenue decreased 15.5% and spending was down 8.4% from 2022 and the deficit increased to $33.2 trillion. Healthcare spending exceeded social security ($1.351 trillion) and defense spending ($828 billion) and is the federal economy’s biggest expense.

Along with the fragile geopolitical landscape involving relationships with China, Russia and Middle East, federal spending and the economy frame the context for U.S. domestic policies which include its health system. That’s the big picture.

Today also marks the second day of the American Hospital Association annual meeting in DC. The backdrop for this year’s meeting is unusually harsh for its members:

Increased government oversight:

Five committees of Congress and three federal agencies (FTC, DOJ, HHS) are investigating competition and business practices in hospitals, with special attention to the roles of private equity ownership, debt collection policies, price transparency compliance, tax exemptions, workforce diversity, consumer prices and more.

Medicare payment shortfall: 

CMS just issued (last week) its IPPS rate adjustment for 2025: a 2.6% bump that falls short of medical inflation and is certain to exacerbate wage pressures in the hospital workforce. Per a Bank of American analysis last week, “it appears healthcare payrolls remain below pre-pandemic trend” with hospitals and nursing homes lagging ambulatory sectors in recovering.”

Persistent negative media coverage:

The financial challenges for Mission (Asheville), Steward (Massachusetts) and others have been attributed to mismanagement and greed by their corporate owners and reports from independent watchdogs (Lown, West Health, Arnold Ventures, Patient Rights Advocate) about hospital tax exemptions, patient safety, community benefits, executive compensation and charity care have amplified unflattering media attention to hospitals.

Physicians discontent: 

59% of physicians in the U.S. are employed by hospitals; 18% by private equity-backed investors and the rest are “independent”. All are worried about their income. All think hospitals are wasteful and inefficient. Most think hospital employment is the lesser of evils threatening the future of their profession. And those in private equity-backed settings hope regulators leave them alone so they can survive. As America’s Physician Group CEO Susan Dentzer observed: “we knew we’re always going to need hospitals; but they don’t have to look or operate the way they do now. And they don’t have to be predicated on a revenue model based on people getting more elective surgeries than they actually need. We don’t have to run the system that way; we do run the healthcare system that way currently.”

The Value Agenda in limbo:

Since the Affordable Care Act (2010), the CMS Center for Innovation has sponsored and ultimately disabled all but 6 of its 54+ alternative payment programs. As it turns out, those that have performed best were driven by physician organizations sans hospital control. Last week’s release of “Creating a Sustainable Future for Value-Based Care: A Playbook of Voluntary Best Practices for VBC Payment Arrangements.” By the American Medical Association, the National Association of ACOs (NAACOs) and AHIP, the trade group representing America’s health insurance payers is illustrative. Noticeably not included: the American Hospital Association because value-pursuers think for hospitals it’s all talk.

National insurers hostility:  

Large, corporate insurers have intensified reimbursement pressure on hospitals while successfully strengthening their collective grip on the U.S. health insurance sector. 5 insurers control 50% of the U.S. health insurance market: 4 are investor owned. By contrast, the 5 largest hospital systems control 17% of the hospital market: 1 is investor-owned. And bumpy insurer earnings post-pandemic has prompted robust price increases: in 2022 (the last year for complete data and first year post pandemic), medical inflation was 4.0%, hospital prices went up 2.2% but insurer prices increased 5.9%.

Costly capital: 

The U.S. economy is in a tricky place: inflation is stuck above 3%, consumer prices are stable and employment is strong. Thus, the Fed is not likely to drop interest rates making hospital debt more costly for hospitals—especially problematic for public, safety net and rural hospitals. The hospital business is capital intense: it needs $$ for technologies, facilities and clinical innovations that treat medical demand. For those dependent on federal funding (i.e. Medicare), it’s unrealistic to think its funding from taxpayers will be adequate.  Ditto state and local governments. For those that are credit worthy, capital is accessible from private investors and lenders. For at least half, it’s problematic and for all it’s certain to be more expensive.

Campaign 2024 spotlight:

In Campaign 2024, healthcare affordability is an issue to likely voters. It is noticeably missing among the priorities in the hospital-backed Coalition to Strengthen America’s Healthcare advocacy platform though 8 states have already created “affordability” boards to enact policies to protect consumers from medical debts, surprise hospital bills and more.

Understandably, hospitals argue they’re victims. They depend on AHA, its state associations, and its alliances with FAH, CHA, AEH and other like-minded collaborators to fight against policies that erode their finances i.e. 340B program participation, site-neutral payments and others. They rightfully assert that their 7/24/365 availability is uniquely qualifying for the greater good, but it’s not enough. These battles are fought with energy and resolve, but they do not win the war facing hospitals.

AHA spent more than $30 million last year to influence federal legislation but it’s an uphill battle. 70% of the U.S. population think the health system is flawed and in need of transformative change. Hospitals are its biggest player (30% of total spending), among its most visible and vulnerable to market change.

Some think hospitals can hunker down and weather the storm of these 8 challenges; others think transformative change is needed and many aren’t sure. And all recognize that the future is not a repeat of the past.

For hospitals, including those in DC this week, playing victim is not a strategy. A vision about the future of the health system that’s accessible, affordable and effective and a comprehensive plan inclusive of structural changes and funding is needed. Hospitals should play a leading, but not exclusive, role in this urgently needed effort.

Lacking this, hospitals will be public utilities in a system of health designed and implemented by others.

America’s newest doctors fuel efforts to unionize

Posted on by • Posted in Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Labor Shortages, Labor Union, Market Consolidation, Market Power, Physician Burnout, Physician Compensation, Physician Shortage, Physician Workforce, Physician's Labor Union • Leave a comment

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/doctors-union-gen-z-millennial

A new generation of doctors struggling with ever-increasing workloads and crushing student debt is helping drive unionization efforts in a profession that historically hasn’t organized.

Why it matters: 

Physicians in training, like their peers in other industries, increasingly see unions as a way to boost their pay and protect themselves against grueling working conditions as they launch their careers.

What they’re saying: 

“We deserve an increased salary to be able to afford to live in one of the most expensive areas in the United States,” said Ali Duffens, a third-year internal medicine resident at Kaiser Permanente’s San Francisco Medical Center.

  • She’s among the 400 residents at Kaiser’s Northern California system filing to unionize earlier this month.
  • Duffens earns about $82,000 per year, while paying $3,000 a month for rent and facing $350,000 in medical school loans.

The big picture: 

The Kaiser residents are part of a growing number of younger peers in medicine who have been unionizing in recent years.

  • The number of medical residents in unions has about doubled to more than 32,000 in three years, per CalMatters.
  • In the last year, residents at Montefiore Medical Center, Stanford Health Care, George Washington University and the University of Pennsylvania voted to unionize, per WBUR.
  • “The cost of day care … in a month is about half of my salary in total, and the cost of a nanny is essentially the entirety of my salary,” Leah Rethy, an internal medicine resident with Penn Medicine, told NPR last year.
  • Residents can work as much as 80 hours per week while earning far less than their older colleagues.

Yes, but: Just about 6%-7% of physicians are estimated to be in unions.

  • Historically, doctors have thought they could just suck up the long hours and relatively low pay in training as part of the tradition of medicine, said Robert Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.
  • “For a new generation, they look at it and say, ‘That’s crazy. I can’t believe you did that. I want to work hard, but I also want a life and I want a family, and I want a reasonable income,'” he said.

And it’s not just younger doctors. 

Those more established in their careers are also unionizing as they see the industry changing in ways that they think undermine their profession.

  • In recent months, attending physicians at Salem Hospital, owned by Mass General Brigham, and a Cedars Sinai-owned anesthesiology practice filed to unionize.
  • About 600 doctors at Allina Health in Minnesota and Wisconsin last fall agreed to form what appears to be the largest union of private sector physicians.

Zoom in: 

The corporatization of American medicine is seen as a key driver. More than half of all U.S. doctors now work for a health system or large medical group rather than running an independent practice.

  • This shift has brought heavier workloads and less control over how they care for patients, said John August, director of health care labor relations in the Scheinman Institute on Conflict Resolution at the ILR School at Cornell.
  • That could mean demands to see more patients, limiting the time that doctors can spend with them.
  • “What you will hear from them 100% of the time in every conversation they have is they feel that they have lost control over the patient-physician relationship. I mean, every single physician says that now,” August said.

The other side: 

Health systems and large practices generally say they value their doctors and the relationships they hold with patients.

  • Hospitals have also struggled with pandemic-era financial shortfalls, including increasing labor costs.

The bottom line: 

While this is a labor issue, it ultimately trickles down to quality and safety for patients, said Rachel Flores, organizing director of the Union of American Physicians and Dentists.

  • “Patients should care because that’s less time to address their issues,” she said. “Patients should care because there’s not enough staff to support the physician.”

No appointments available: America’s escalating primary care shortage

Posted on by • Posted in Physician Compensation, Physician Shortage, Physician Workforce, Primary Care, Primary Care Workforce, Workforce Shortages, Workforce Strategy • Leave a comment
https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/no-appointments-available-americas-escalating-primary-care-shortage/712049/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202024-04-15%20Healthcare%20Dive%20%5Bissue:61075%5D&utm_term=Healthcare%20Dive

Chronic disinvestment and inadequate training have created a shortage of primary care workers.

As the presidential election nears, issues from the economy to climate change are vying for airtime, yet markedly absent from the headlines is a deepening crisis that threatens the future health and wellbeing of communities nationwide: a primary care sector on the brink of collapse.  

Primary care is the cornerstone of community health. It helps us live longer lives, prevents disease and reduces health disparities. It is indispensable to strengthening our nation’s ability to withstand another deadly pandemic or climate disaster. And yet, over 100 million Americans report they lack access to a regular doctor or source of care.

Physicians and patients acutely feel the primary care workforce shortage. In recent interviews we heard an alarming refrain from clinicians and health executives: “I could spend all my time helping friends find doctors accepting new patients.” Another said, “I have 100 open staff positions and am in a bidding war for primary care physicians.”

Just in the past decade, there has been a 36% jump in the share of U.S. children without a usual source of care. Among adults it’s a 21% increase, according to a Milbank report. And with America’s rapidly aging population, access to critical primary care services is only expected to get worse. 

Understanding what’s driving America’s primary care workforce shortage is key to finding effective, long-term solutions. 

A workforce exodus amid chronic disinvestment

America is not producing enough primary care physicians to meet growing population needs. New primary care physicians are leaving for other fields at alarming rates. In 2021, only 15% of all physicians were practicing outpatient primary care three to five years after residency, according to a Milbank report. 

When we look at the disparities in compensation rates and the nation’s chronic disinvestment in primary care, this workforce exodus shouldn’t come as a surprise. Specialists in the U.S. now routinely make two to three times what their primary care colleagues do, creating powerful incentives for physicians in training to “go for the gold.” 

Primary care accounts for 35% of healthcare visits but receives only about 5% to 7% of total healthcare expenditures. For context, hospitals account for 30% of healthcare expenditures. Additionally, since 2019, the share of total spending by Medicare, Medicaid and commercial insurers in primary care has steadily declined; Medicare’s share has dropped by 15%, according to Milbank.

Inadequate training, disparities in access

Today, the vast majority of primary care residents train within hospitals and academic health centers, which do not expose them to the needs of underserved communities, nor provide them with the skills needed to successfully practice in challenging, real-world clinical environments. In 2021, only 15% of primary care residents spent a majority of their time training in community settings, outside of hospitals. 

Moving forward, the solutions are clear. Congress and both the public and private sectors must work together to enact stronger federal and state policies in three critical primary care areas. First, Medicare and Medicaid physician reimbursement — which has led to our specialty-dominated healthcare system — must become more effective and efficient. We know that inadequate compensation is one reason why many medical students choose not to go into primary care.  

Second, the billions in public dollars going to clinician training must be focused on creating a highly skilled primary care workforce with practical experience in community settings. This is essential to meet the complex health needs of our nation’s ever-changing and growing population. 

And finally, we need to expand the footprint of community health centers, the linchpin to improving health outcomes in underserved communities. Currently, these centers provide care to 1 in 11 patients around the country, but that number needs to be vastly expanded.

It’s time to strengthen our fragile primary care system to ensure it delivers the comprehensive, affordable care Americans so desperately need. Access to high-quality primary care for everyone should not be an aspiration, but an expectation that we – as a nation – have an urgent duty to fulfill.

Employed physians at Allina Health vote to unionize

Posted on by • Posted in Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Labor Spend Management, Labor Union, Physician, Physician Compensation, Physician Workforce • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/59f0ab20e40d/the-weekly-gist-october-27-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

Around 400 primary and urgent care physicians, along with 150 nurse practitioners and physician assistants, employed by Minneapolis, MN-based Allina Health System have voted to unionize with the Service Employees International Union, forming the largest private-sector union of physicians in the country. 

Allina, which operates 12 hospitals across Minnesota and Wisconsin, already saw over 100 inpatient physicians at its Mercy Hospital vote to unionize earlier this year. While Mercy’s physicians organized against pressure to adhere to the hospital’s new length-of-stay guidelines, this larger group of clinic-based providers say they are motivated by chronic understaffing that they claim has caused burnout and threatened patient safety. Allina Health laid off 350 workers this summer after posting a nearly $200M operating loss in 2022.

The Gist: When health systems originally recruited physicians into their newly developed employed medical groups, many pitched the arrangement as more of a partnership than traditional employment.

However, now that a majority of the nation’s physicians are employed by hospitals, some physicians are rethinking their relationships with their employers. 

Only six percent of doctors were unionized in 2021, but a recent spate of unionization efforts by residents and physicians suggest that number is on the rise.

Health systems hoping to address physicians’ concerns and unionization activity should note that the motivating factors cited by organizing physicians surround working conditions, including a lack of support staff and professional autonomy, rather than personal wage demands.

Which physician specialties are most targeted for corporate roll-ups?  

Posted on by • Posted in Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Outpatient Care, Physician, Physician Aggregator, Physician Compensation, Physician Employment, Physician Independence, Physician Practice Management, Physician Practice Valuation, Physician Workforce, Private Equity • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/6f4bb5a2183a/the-weekly-gist-march-24-2023?e=d1e747d2d8

In the last edition of the Weekly Gist, we illustrated how non-hospital physician employment spiked during the pandemic. Diving deeper into the same report from consulting firm Avalere Health and the nonprofit Physicians Advocacy Institute, the graphic above looks at the specialties that currently have the greatest number of physicians employed by hospitals and corporate entities (which include insurers, private equity, and non-provider umbrella organizations), and those that remain the most independent.


To date, there has been little overlap in the fields most heavily targeted for employment by hospitals and corporate entities. Hospitals have largely employed doctors critical for key service lines, like cancer and cardiology, as well as hospitalists and other doctors central to day-to-day hospital operations.

In contrast, corporate entities have made the greatest strides in specialties with lucrative outpatient procedural business, like nephrology (dialysis) and orthopedics (ambulatory surgery), as well as specialties like allergy-immunology, that can bring profitable pharmaceutical revenue.

Meanwhile, only a few specialties remain majority independent. Historically independent fields like psychiatry and oral surgery saw the number of independent practitioners fall over 25 percent during the pandemic.

While hospitals will remain the dominant physician employer in the near term, corporate employment is growing unabated, as payers and investors, unrestrained by fair market value requirements, can offer top dollar prices to practices. 

Lawmakers stress urgency of healthcare worker shortage

Posted on by • Posted in American Hospital Association (AHA), Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), Health Policy, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Labor Relations, Medicare Funding, Nurse Agency Staffing, Nurse Education, Nurse Staffing, Nurse Training, Nurse Travelers, Nurses Compensation, Nurses Shortage, Physician, Physician Residents, Physician Shortage, Physician Staffing, Physician Workforce • Leave a comment

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/lawmakers-fixes-healthcare-workforce-shortages/642994/

Addressing the education pipeline is one thing that legislators could focus on to improve nurse and physician shortages, medical school and health system leaders said.

As the healthcare industry continues to face pandemic-driven workforce challenges, lawmakers are exploring ways to boost the number of clinicians practicing in the U.S.

“A shortage of healthcare personnel was a problem before the pandemic and now it has gotten worse,” Chairman Sen. Bernie Sanders I-Vt., said during a Thursday Senate HELP committee hearing. “Health care jobs have gotten more challenging and, in some cases, more dangerous,” he said.

The country faces a shortage of up to 124,000 physicians by 2034, including 48,000 primary care physicians, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges.

Hospitals are currently facing shortages of registered nurses as burnout and other factors drive them to other roles. 

For example, 47-hospital system Ochsner Health in New Orleans has about 1,200 open nursing positions, Chief Academic Officer Leonardo Seoane said at Thursday’s hearing.

The workforce shortaged led Ochsner to close about 100 beds across its system during the past six months, leading to it use already-constrained emergency departments as holding bays for patients, he said.

Like other systems, labor costs have also been a concern due to a continued reliance on temporary staff to fill gaps. Ochsner’s non-agency labor costs grew just under 60% since 2019, while its costs for contract staff grew nearly 900%, he said.

“Our country is perilously short of nurses, and those we do have are often not working in the settings that could provide the most value,” Sarah Szanton, dean of Johns Hopkins School of Nursing said.

“This was true before the pandemic and has become more acute,” she said.

While many nurses left permanent roles for higher-paying contract positions during the pandemic, others have turned to jobs at outpatient clinics, coinciding with a shift toward non-hospital based care.

Registered nurse employment is nearly 5% above where it was in 2019, with nearly all that growth occurring outside of hospitals, Douglas Staiger, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, found in his research and said at the hearing.

One major concern: Driving current and projected shortages in hospitals that lawmakers can address is the educational pipeline, medical school and health system leaders said.

Educational programs for nurses and physicians face site shortages and educators who are often allured by other higher-paying jobs in the industry.

Nursing educators in Vermont earn about $65,000 a year — about half of what nurses with similar degrees working in hospitals earn, Sanders said during the hearing. He asked members to consider expanding the Nurse Corps and nurse faculty loan repayments, among other programs.

Supporting partnerships between universities and hospitals to create more training opportunities is another way Congress can help, along with addressing high costs of tuition, James Herbert, president of University of New England, said during the hearing.

“Scholarship and loan repayment programs are critical to make healthcare education more accessible for those who would otherwise find it out of reach,” Herbert said.

That includes expanding and improving Medicare-funded physician residencies, he said.

Creating a more diverse workforce that looks more like the population it serves is another important task, and one lawmakers can address by supporting historically black colleges and universities.

Federal funding could help improve classrooms and other infrastructure at HBCUs “that have been egregiously are underfunded for decades,” in addition to expanding Medicare-funded residencies for hospitals that train a large number of graduates for HBCU medical schools, said James Hildreth Sr., president and CEO at Meharry Medical College in Nashville.

The American Hospital Association submitted a statement to the HELP subcommittee and said it also supports increasing the number of residency slots eligible for Medicare funds and rejecting cuts to curb long-term physician shortages.

Other AHA supported policies to address current and long-term workforce shortages include better funding for nursing schools and supporting expedited visas for foreign-trained nurses.

AHA also asked lawmakers to look into travel nurse staffing agencies, reviving requests it made last year alleging that staffing companies engaged in price gouging during the pandemic.

Last year some state lawmakers considered capping the rate hospitals can pay agencies for temporary nursing staff, though none ended up passing legislation to do so.

Physician burnout reaches record levels 

Posted on by • Posted in Pandemic, Physician, Physician Acquisition, Physician Burnout, Physician Employment, Physician Practice Acquisition, Physician Workforce, Retention, Team-Based Care Models, Work-Life Balance • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/3a7244145206/the-weekly-gist-december-9-2022?e=d1e747d2d8

The long hours, stressful conditions, and labor shortages brought on by the pandemic have done serious harm to the physician workforce. The graphic above tracks physician burnout, a combination of emotional exhaustion, loss of agency, and depersonalization that has become the primary measure of the pandemic’s toll on workers, to reveal that physicians are demoralized like never before. 

Physician burnout levels had been decreasing since 2014, in part due to practice consolidation and the expansion of team-based care models. Burnout reached its lowest levels in 2020—perhaps explained by a pandemic-induced sense of purpose—but 2021 then saw a dramatic spike in every measure of physician dissatisfaction, as the heroic glow of the early pandemic faded, and an overtaxed and understaffed delivery system became the new norm.

In explaining how the pandemic has impacted their career decisions, surveyed physicians list unsustainable burnout and stress as their top concern, and 11 percent say they have exited the profession, either for retirement or a non-clinical job, in the past two years. Four in ten surveyed physicians report changing jobs since 2020, mainly within similar or different practice settings, citing a desire for better work-life balance as their primary motivation. (It should be caveated that these data are from a smaller survey of 534 physicians, 40 percent of whom identified as “early career”.) 

While the solutions here aren’t new, they are challenging: we must continue to implement team-based care models that provide physicians top-of-license practice and improved work-life balance, remove administrative tasks wherever possible, and ensure that we are communicating and engaging physicians—employed and independent alike—in organizational strategy and decision-making. 

Why large health insurers are buying up physicians

Posted on by • Posted in Antitrust, Competition, Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Health Insurance Industry, Market Consolidation, Market Power, Market Share, Mergers & Acquisitions, Monopoly Behavior, Physician, Physician Strategy, Physician Workforce, Vertical Consolidation, Vertical Integration, Vertical Merger • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/3a7244145206/the-weekly-gist-december-9-2022?e=d1e747d2d8

An enlightening piece published this week in Stat News lays out exactly how UnitedHealth Group (UHG) is using its vast network of physicians to generate new streams of profit, a playbook being followed by most other major payers. Already familiar to close observers of the post-Affordable Care Act healthcare landscape, the article highlights how UHG can use “intercompany eliminations”—payments from its UnitedHealthcare payer arm to its Optum provider and pharmacy arms—to achieve profits above the 15 to 20 percent cap placed on health insurance companies.

So far in 2022, 38 percent of UHG’s insurance revenue has flowed into its provider groups, up from 23 percent in 2017. And UHG expects next year’s intercompany eliminations to grow by 20 percent to a total of $130B, which would make up over half of its total projected revenue.

The Gist:

The profit motive behind payer-provider vertical integration is as clear as it is concerning for the state of competition in healthcare. 

UHG now employs or affiliates with 70K physicians—10K more than last year—seven percent of the US physician workforce, and the largest of any entity. 

Given the weak antitrust framework for regulating vertical integration, the federal government has proven unable to stop the acquisition of providers by payers. Eventually, profit growth for these vertically integrated payers will have to come from tightening provider networks, and not just acquiring more assets. That could prompt regulatory action or consumer backlash, if the government or enrollees determine that access to care is being unfairly restricted.

Until then, the march of consolidation is likely to continue.

Managing against a decline in “physician hours worked”

Posted on by • Posted in Physician, Physician Hospital Call, Physician Staffing, Physician Staffing - Private Equity Backed, Physician Workforce • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/4587dc321337/the-weekly-gist-october-14-2022?e=d1e747d2d8

Last week a health system chief medical officer asked if we were hearing other systems complain of difficulties in securing call coverage for key specialties, particularly orthopedics, GI and urology. We agreed: with proceduralists building larger outpatient businesses, often funded by investors, there is less incentive for groups to support hospital call. To fill the gaps, hospitals are having to negotiate lucrative deals for coverage, and the market feels like the “deal for every doc” years in the early 2000s, when specialists had leverage to negotiate bespoke partnership contracts. In this leader’s case, he ended up brokering a deal with gastroenterologists to serve in a hospital-based role, providing in-house coverage for consults. “These docs are able to make $600K a year, working about 30 hours per week. It’s insane,” he lamented. 
 
But beyond the cost of talent, he was concerned about the larger ramifications of these kind of roles on physician supply. “I’ve been thinking about a metric along the lines of ‘lifetime physician hours worked’, and how that has changed over time,” he shared. He explained that physicians of his generation expected to work 60- to 80- hour weeks for most of their careers. Most younger doctors want to work much less, say 40 or 50 hours.

Over a forty-year career, he calculated, the healthcare system could get 36,800, or roughly a third fewer, “lifetime work-hours” from a doctor starting today. And most early-career doctors also plan to retire younger. “Now don’t get me wrong,” he continued, “We probably worked too hard, and these younger guys are onto something.” But he was concerned about the ramifications for physician supply, and posited we are poised for a deep shortage of clinical talent.

Creating the future physician workforce will require not only training more doctors, but also finding ways to make their work hours more efficient, with greater use of technology and other caregivers, who must also be trained in greater numbers. It takes at least four years to train a nurse, and nearly a decade before a student entering medical school today becomes a practicing physician—we can’t afford such a long lag time before more physician capacity comes online.