Pennsylvania orders stricter COVID-19 protections for all hospital workers

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/pennsylvania-orders-stricter-covid-19-protections-for-all-hospital-workers.html?utm_medium=email

8,420 infected, 102 dead from COVID-19 in Pennsylvania to date | ABC27

Pennsylvania’s state health secretary issued an order June 9 requiring all hospitals to better protect staff from COVID-19. 

“I have heard from nurses and staff, and this order responds directly to many of their safety concerns,” said Secretary of Health Rachel Levine, MD.

The order requires hospitals to develop, implement and adhere to the following measures by June 15: 

  • Notify staff who have been in close contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case within 24 hours of the known contact; provide instruction for quarantine and work exclusion
  • Provide testing for symptomatic and asymptomatic hospital staff members who have received notice of a close contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case upon request
  • Equip staff with nationally approved respirators when staff determine the mask is soiled, damaged or otherwise ineffective
  • Require universal masking for all individuals entering the hospital facility, except for people for whom wearing a mask would create a further health risk, or individuals under age 2

In addition to medical staff, the measures apply to staff members in therapeutic services, social services, housekeeping services, dietary services and maintenance.

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 activity by region: Cases ramp up in rural areas

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/covid-19-activity-by-region-cases-ramp-up-in-rural-areas.html?utm_medium=email

Coronavirus Timeline: March 2020 | WATE 6 On Your Side

Progress on containing COVID-19’s spread continues to vary drastically across regions, states and cities.

As the incubation period for COVID-19 is up to 14 days, most states have yet to report a potential surge in cases linked to nationwide protests against police violence.

What’s clear is the pandemic is loosening its grasp on major urban areas and ramping up in more rural areas, according to The Washington Post. Cases have increased in at least 22 states over the past two weeks, according to a June 9 analysis by The New York Times. Fourteen states have also had a record-high seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since June 1, according to data tracked by the Post.

Below is a snapshot of what COVID-19’s spread looks like across the U.S., as of June 9.

West

More COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in Oregon over the past week than any other time since the pandemic began, according to data from the Oregon Health Authority. The state reported 620 confirmed or presumed infections in the past week, with the state’s largest daily case total reported June 7 at 146 cases. The spike began the week ending May 31, when new COVID-19 cases in Oregon increased by 18 percent (353 cases) compared to the previous week. Between June 5-8, 26 counties in Oregon were able to enter Phase 2 of reopening, KGW reported.

COVID-19 cases in California hit 3,094 new daily cases June 5, the state’s second highest daily count after 3,705 cases reported May 30. Recently, some counties have resisted Gov. Gavin Newsom’s distancing orders and reopened sections of the economy, according to The Guardian.

Washington reported 442 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on June 6, the most daily cases since April 10, according to KOMO News. The state has acquired sufficient supplies to expand COVID-19 testing and better monitor Washington’s 39 counties as they ease social distancing restrictions, Gov. Jay Inslee said June 4, according to The Seattle Times. As of June 8, all employees in the state must wear face coverings, with some exceptions for certain jobs or individuals with medical conditions, according to King 5.

Southwest

COVID-19 cases hit record-high numbers in Arizona in late May. The state reported more than 700 cases daily between May 26-29, the largest single-day increases seen since the pandemic started. However, known deaths have been decreasing since late May, with less than 10 deaths occurring daily between May 29 and June 2. On June 6, Cara Christ, MD, Arizona Department of Health Services director, sent a letter to hospitals urging them to “fully activate” emergency plans, according to AZ Central.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases and deaths are steadily increasing in Texas. The state reported 1,949 new cases May 31, marking the highest single-day increase seen since the pandemic’s start. Texas also reported a record number of related hospitalizations, with 1,935 people admitted June 8. Ten counties are reporting increased case counts because of testing at prisons or meatpacking plants, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. On June 3, Gov. Greg Abbott announced the third phase of reopening, which includes increasing capacity and opening additional businesses and activities.

Nevada reported 194 new cases June 5, marking the largest single-day increase seen since May 22, when the state saw a record 255 cases. The cumulative death toll has also been rising since the start of the pandemic, although the state reported no new deaths between June 5 and June 7.

Northeast

New York reported 35 COVID-19 deaths June 5 — the lowest figure seen in eight weeks, according to The New York Times. The daily death toll has been steadily declining since New York reported nearly 800 deaths daily in late March and early April, according to state data. New York also reported a record-low number of hospitalizations last week.

The number of new cases, deaths and hospitalizations have significantly fallen in New Jersey since April. The state reported 356 new cases June 8, representing the 10th consecutive day in which new cases remained under 1,000. The state is set to enter phase 2 of its reopening June 15, which will allow restaurants to offer outdoor dining and nonessential businesses to open at half capacity, according to nj.com.

Massachusetts reported a large spike in new COVID-19 cases June 1 after conducting a retrospective review of state data since March 1. Of the 3,840 new cases reported, 3,514 were newly probable and 326 were newly confirmed, according to Boston 7 News. Overall, the state has seen a sustained decline in new cases throughout May, according to a New York Times analysis.

Southeast

Florida saw a large spike in new COVID-19 infections last week amid a steady increase in testing capacity. After reporting just 606 cases June 1, Florida had more than 1,000 new infections daily between June 3 and June 7. This marks the state’s longest sustained increase since early April. The state also reported 1,419 new infections June 4 — the largest single-day increase seen since the Florida health department started publishing COVID-19 data in March, according to the Miami Herald.

COVID-19 hospitalizations started falling in Mississippi in early June. However, the state reported a record 498 new cases June 8, the highest single-day increase seen since May 30 when 439 cases were reported, according to the Sun Herald.

North Carolina reported 1,370 new cases June 6, the highest daily increase seen during the pandemic, according to WSOC-TV. The previous record was set just a day prior when the state saw 1,289 new cases. North Carolina also reported 739 hospitalizations June 8, surpassing the previous record of 717 hospizaltions reported June 5, according to The News & Observer.

Midwest

Wisconsin reported no new COVID-19 deaths June 8 for the first time since May 17, reports CBS affiliate WSAW-TV. The number of people hospitalized with the virus also fell to a three-week low June 3, according to Urban Milwaukee. The state reported 203 new cases June 8, down from 733 on May 29. Wisconsin also performed a record 16,451 tests June 3, of which 483 were positive.

The rate of new COVID-19 cases and the number of people requiring intensive care continues to decline in Minnesota. The state reported 388 new infections June 7, the second-lowest daily increase since April 28, according to the StarTribune. In addition, 199 patients were being treated for COVID-19 in ICUs, marking the lowest total since May 13.

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus Live Updates: W.H.O. Walks Back Claim That Asymptomatic Transmission is Rare

Virus spreaders who never show symptoms 'very rare,' WHO says ...

Seven million people have been infected worldwide, and new cases hit a high globally on Sunday, according to the W.H.O. Central banks are seeking new tools to offset the downturn.

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New Jersey’s governor said on Tuesday that he was lifting the stay-at-home order that he issued in March. “With more and more of our businesses reopening, we’re no longer requiring you to stay at home,” he said.

The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’

A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.”

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.

“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.

Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.

Scientists had sharply criticized the W.H.O. for creating confusion on the issue, given the far-ranging public policy implications. Governments around the world have recommended face masks and social distancing measures because of the risk of asymptomatic transmission.

A range of scientists said Dr. Van Kerkhove’s comments did not reflect the current scientific research.

“All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19,” scientists at the Harvard Global Health Institute said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Communicating preliminary data about key aspects of the coronavirus without much context can have tremendous negative impact on how the public and policymakers respond to the pandemic.”

A widely cited paper published in April suggested that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of symptoms, and estimated that 44 percent of new infections are a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms.

Dr. Van Kerkhove and other W.H.O. experts reiterated the importance of physical distancing, personal hygiene, testing, tracing, quarantine and isolation in controlling the pandemic.

The debate over transmission erupted a day after the W.H.O. said that cases had reached a new single-day global high — 136,000 on Sunday, with three-quarters in just 10 countries, mostly in the Americas and South Asia. The coronavirus has already sickened more than seven million people worldwide and killed at least 405,400, according to a New York Times database.

The Pan American Health Organization said on Tuesday that 3.3 million people in South and Central America have been infected with the coronavirus. Dr. Carissa F. Etienne, the agency’s director, said that many areas are experiencing exponential growth in infections and death.

In India, health experts are warning of a looming shortage of hospital beds and doctors to treat patients as the country grapples with a sharp surge of infections. India reported 10,000 new infections in the past 24 hours, fortotal of at least 266,500, and has surpassed Spain to become one of the five countries with the highest caseloads.

Rajnish Sinha, the owner of an event management company in Delhi, struggled to find a hospital bed for his 75-year-old father-in-law, who tested positive for the virus on Tuesday.

“This is just the beginning of the coming disaster,” Mr. Sinha said. “Only God can save us.”

 

 

 

 

How Many More Will Die From Fear of the Coronavirus?

Fear of contracting the coronavirus has resulted in many people missing necessary screenings for serious illnesses, like cancer and heart disease.

Seriously ill people avoided hospitals and doctors’ offices. Patients need to return. It’s safe now.

More than 100,000 Americans have died from Covid-19. Beyond those deaths are other casualties of the pandemic — Americans seriously ill with other ailments who avoided care because they feared contracting the coronavirus at hospitals and clinics.

The toll from their deaths may be close to the toll from Covid-19. The trends are clear and concerning. Government orders to shelter in place and health care leaders’ decisions to defer nonessential care successfully prevented the spread of the virus. But these policies — complicated by the loss of employer-provided health insurance as people lost their jobs — have had the unintended effect of delaying care for some of our sickest patients.

To prevent further harm, people with serious, complex and acute illnesses must now return to the doctor for care.

Across the country, we have seen sizable decreases in new cancer diagnoses (45 percent) and reports of heart attacks (38 percent) and strokes (30 percent). Visits to hospital emergency departments are down by as much as 40 percent, but measures of how sick emergency department patients are have risen by 20 percent, according to a Mayo Clinic study, suggesting how harmful the delay can be. Meanwhile, non-Covid-19 out-of-hospital deaths have increased, while in-hospital mortality has declined.

These statistics demonstrate that people with cancer are missing necessary screenings, and those with heart attack or stroke symptoms are staying home during the precious window of time when the damage is reversible. In fact, a recent poll by the American College of Emergency Physicians and Morning Consult found that 80 percent of Americans say they are concerned about contracting the coronavirus from visiting the emergency room.

Unfortunately, we’ve witnessed grievous outcomes as a result of these delays. Recently, a middle-aged patient with abdominal pain waited five days to come to a Mayo Clinic emergency department for help, before dying of a bowel obstruction. Similarly, a young woman delayed care for weeks out of a fear of Covid-19 before she was transferred to a Cleveland Clinic intensive care unit with undiagnosed leukemia. She died within weeks of her symptoms appearing. Both deaths were preventable.

The true cost of this epidemic will not be measured in dollars; it will be measured in human lives and human suffering. In the case of cancer alone, our calculations show we can expect a quarter of a million additional preventable deaths annually if normal care does not resume. Outcomes will be similar for those who forgo treatment for heart attacks and strokes.

Over the past 12 weeks, hospitals deferred nonessential care to prevent viral spread, conserve much-needed personal protective equipment and create capacity for an expected surge of Covid-19 patients. During that time, we also have adopted methods to care for all patients safely, including standard daily screenings for the staff and masking protocols for patients and the staff in the hospital and clinic. At this point, we are gradually returning to normal activities while also mitigating risk for both patients and staff members.

The Covid-19 crisis has changed the practice of medicine in fundamental ways in just a matter of months. Telemedicine, for instance, allowed us to pivot quickly from in-person care to virtual care. We have continued to provide necessary care to our patients while promoting social distancing, reducing the risk of viral spread and recognizing patients’ fears.

Both Cleveland Clinic and Mayo Clinic have gone from providing thousands of virtual visits per month before the pandemic to hundreds of thousands now across a broad range of demographics and conditions. At Cleveland Clinic, 94 percent of diabetes patients were cared for virtually in April.

While virtual visits are here to stay, there are obvious limitations. There is no substitute for in-person care for those who are severely ill or require early interventions for life-threatening conditions. Those are the ones who — even in the midst of this pandemic — must seek the care they need.

Patients who need care at a clinic or hospital or doctor’s office should know they have reduced the risk of Covid-19 through proven infection-control precautions under guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We’re taking unprecedented actions, such as restricting visiting hours, screening patient and caregiver temperatures at entrances, encouraging employees to work from home whenever possible, providing spaces that allow for social distancing, and requiring proper hand hygiene, cough etiquette and masking.

All of these strategies are intended to significantly reduce risk while allowing for vital, high-quality care for our patients.

The novel coronavirus will not go away soon, but its systemic side effects of fear and deferred care must.

We will continue to give vigilant attention to Covid-19 while urgently addressing the other deadly diseases that haven’t taken a pause during the pandemic. For patients with medical conditions that require in-person care, please allow us to safely care for you — do not delay. Lives depend on it.

 

 

 

South Asia emerges as a new coronavirus hotspot

https://www.axios.com/india-coronavirus-cases-south-asia-pakistan-5447da22-7418-43f7-a17a-d247b92e4205.html

Featured image

India opened up restaurants, shopping malls and places of worship today even as it recorded a record-high 9,971 new coronavirus cases, the third-most worldwide behind Brazil and the U.S.

Why it matters: Lockdowns are being lifted in South Asia — home to one-quarter of the world’s population — not because countries are winning the battle against COVID-19, but because they simply can’t sustain them any longer.

Flashback: For a time, South Asia was cited as a source of optimism because relatively few cases and deaths were being recorded despite large, dense populations.

  • Lockdowns came relatively early, with varying severity (India’s was considerably stricter than Pakistan’s, for example).
  • Outbreaks have continued to accelerate, however. Pakistan’s daily case count is now on par with the U.K.’s and six times Germany’s, adjusted for population.
Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios
Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Limited testing means South Asia’s outbreaks could actually be far more severe. India, for example, is testing at one-twentieth the rate of the U.S.

  • John Clemens, an epidemiologist at ICDDR,B (formerly the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh), estimates that Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, may have up to 750,000 cases — 12 times the official tally, per the Economist.
  • The official numbers still show India, Pakistan and Bangladesh with the third-, seventh- and tenth-most new cases in the world over the past three days, respectively.

Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor at the University of Michigan who has been modeling India’s outbreak, tells Axios that while some states have hit initial peaks, she doesn’t expect a national peak until late July or August.

  • While the transmission rate has slowed, “you see this steady rise in cases because the population is so large.” She expects the numbers to fall slowly after the peak, unlike the trajectory in Europe.
  • The numbers can be unreliable, Mukherjee says, with some states fearing that testing symptomatic people will cause them to “look bad” as cases rise.
  • She also worries that India didn’t use the lockdown period to build up testing and hospital capacity.
  • “It’s really chaos unfolding in Mumbai and Delhi, and I think unfortunately India is going to be at the top of the list in terms of cases,” she says.

Zoom in: Mumbai has launched an app to help people locate hospitals with empty beds, but such is the scarcity that they’re often full by the time patients arrive, WSJ reports. Some die without ever receiving treatment.

  • Morgues are overfull t00. There are reports of patients being treated in rooms that also contain dead bodies.
  • Public hospitals in Delhi, home to 26 million people, are also reportedly full and turning people away.

The coronavirus likely arrived in Mumbai with wealthy people returning from abroad, before spreading among poorer people and to slums where social distancing is hardly an option.

  • That pattern has been seen elsewhere in the developing world, including in cities like Rio de Janeiro.
  • There’s an additional complication in India’s case, though. After initially failing to account for migrant workers when implementing the lockdown, the government started to transport them to their home villages on special busses and trains.
  • The virus traveled too. 71% of cases recorded in Bihar, a state in eastern India, have been linked to returning workers, Foreign Policy reports.

The bottom line: South Asian governments attempted to balance health and hunger, knowing they could only shut down their largely informal economies for so long.

  • But with health care systems already stretched and case counts continuing to rise, they’re opening up with more hope than confidence.

 

COVID-19 could cost insurers up to $547B through 2021: report

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payer/report-covid-19-could-cost-insurers-up-to-546b-over-next-two-years?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRnNU16RmxOemM1WXpWaSIsInQiOiJ0TFFnRkR2OUVoQjY5SXArbjU0ZXVmcjJaMFdNWXZ6cXBHOGQxVzZ1dkxhMHJVK0t3dmRtcUVicFIrVDdlMUJPY3doWlQzeVN0VVZxakdnUFBHY2w2a0VVQ0s2WFI1anhqR2xvSFBtMDZZcVlaYVwvK2xlRWdcL01uQmFRVTA0VGtMIn0%3D&mrkid=959610

COVID-19 could cost insurers up to $547B through 2021: report ...

The estimated costs for treating COVID-19 could add up as much as $547 billion for private insurers from 2020 to 2021 depending on the rate of infection, an updated report found.

The report, released Monday from consulting firm Wakely and commissioned by insurance lobbying group America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), looks at the utilization of medical services associated with a COVID-19 infection and the costs for such services. The analysis is restricted to insurers operating in commercial, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care markets.

Wakely estimates that the pandemic could cost insurers between $30 billion and $547 billion.

The report explores the costs of COVID-19 based on a series of potential infection rates, which represent the total population infected. The study modeled infection rates based on 10%, 20% and 60%, while acknowledging that the true infection rate could be far lower.

Wakely then looked at the total costs the plan is liable to cover based on each infection rate.

A 10% rate would lead to a total cost of $30 billion to $92 billion from 2020 to 2021, and a rate of 20% would be $60 billion to $182 billion.

But an infection rate of 60% would cost insurers the greatest, with a range of $180 billion to $547 billion.

“We assume that a higher volume of COVID related services will be incurred in 2020 and lower volume in 2021, distributing approximately 75% of the total services to 2020 and 25% to 2021,” the study said.

Wakely notes it did not model any long-term costs for treating people recovering from COVID-19 infections.

The firm also didn’t factor in vaccine mitigation in 2021 nor a scenario in which large-scale infections occur throughout 2021.

While private insurers have waived cost-sharing for COVID-19 treatments, it remains unclear how long the waivers will last. Anthem and Molina announced Monday they will extend their cost-sharing waivers through the rest of 2020.

The report is an update to an earlier one distributed by Wakely back in March at the onset of the pandemic. That report pegged the total COVID-19 costs between $56 billion and $556 billion.

The main reason for the decline is Wakely factored in deferred care due to the pandemic.

Wakely also reduced the overall assumed rate of hospitalizations for COVID-19-infected individuals to align with more recent studies. But the estimated unit cost for a hospital admission also increased, based on survey data from AHIP members.

People have been putting off necessary care for fear of going to a doctor’s office, and hospital systems have canceled or postponed elective surgical procedures for months.

Hospitals have slowly started to resume elective procedures, but only after installing stringent requirements on cleaning and testing.

Insurers are bracing for a wave of healthcare utilization some time later this year or in 2021 to deal with this pent-up demand.

The deferred care costs would differ based on the infection rate of the virus.

“We assumed, particularly for higher infection rate scenarios, that there may be limited capacity to make up care in 2021,” the report said.

 

 

 

 

Banner Health combats growing spike of COVID-19 cases in Arizona after stay-at-home order lifted

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/banner-health-combats-growing-spike-covid-19-cases-arizona-after-stay-at-home-order?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRnNU16RmxOemM1WXpWaSIsInQiOiJ0TFFnRkR2OUVoQjY5SXArbjU0ZXVmcjJaMFdNWXZ6cXBHOGQxVzZ1dkxhMHJVK0t3dmRtcUVicFIrVDdlMUJPY3doWlQzeVN0VVZxakdnUFBHY2w2a0VVQ0s2WFI1anhqR2xvSFBtMDZZcVlaYVwvK2xlRWdcL01uQmFRVTA0VGtMIn0%3D&mrkid=959610

Banner Health combats growing spike of COVID-19 cases in Arizona ...

Banner Health warned of a major spike of COVID-19 cases over the past few weeks in Arizona as the state opened back up and eased social distancing guidelines.

Arizona’s COVID-19 hospitalizations are rapidly increasing and raising potential capacity concerns, the system said.

“As of June 4, there were 1,234 hospitalized COVID-19 patients,” the system said in a statement. “About 50% of those patients are hospitalized in Banner Health facilities.”

Banner officials said its ICUs have gotten very busy, and the system has been transferring patients and resources to avoid putting stress on one particular hospital. Banner Health operates 28 hospitals across six states, including several hospitals in Arizona. The health system’s update comes as other hospital systems are eyeing a potential resurgence of COVID-19 cases as states reopen their economies after months of stay-at-home orders.

“If these trends continue, Banner will soon need to exercise surge planning and flex up to 125% bed capacity,” the system warned.

The number of Banner Health patients in Arizona on a ventilator has also increased over the past few weeks, from 41 on May 22 to nearly 120 on June 3.

The system also attributed the increase in COVID-19 cases to a relaxation of the state’s stay-at-home order, which expired May 15.

The cases started to spike two weeks after the end of the order, which is the likely incubation period for the virus.

Banner emphasized that the public needs to continue certain behaviors like wearing a mask in public and social distancing in order to ensure capacity isn’t overwhelmed.

Hospitals not only have to worry about the prospects of a second surge of the virus in the fall but also a wave of pent-up demand for healthcare services put off due to the pandemic.

Banner Health, like all health systems, canceled or postponed elective procedures at the onset of the pandemic back in March. But health systems are taking small steps to resume elective procedures.

Banner Health has also taken steps to preserve its personal protective equipment (PPE), which has been in short supply across the healthcare industry throughout the pandemic. Banner was one of 15 healthcare systems to buy a minority stake in PPE domestic manufacturer Prestige Ameritech in the hopes of shoring up a supply chain that is traditionally reliant on overseas manufacturers.

 

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 Can Last for Several Months

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

COVID-19 Can Last for Several Months - The Atlantic - Medium

The disease’s “long-haulers” have endured relentless waves of debilitating symptoms—and disbelief from doctors and friends.

For Vonny LeClerc, day one was March 16.

Hours after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson instated stringent social-distancing measures to halt the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, LeClerc, a Glasgow-based journalist, arrived home feeling shivery and flushed. Over the next few days, she developed a cough, chest pain, aching joints, and a prickling sensation on her skin. After a week of bed rest, she started improving. But on day 12, every old symptom returned, amplified and with reinforcements: She spiked an intermittent fever, lost her sense of taste and smell, and struggled to breathe.

When I spoke with LeClerc on day 66, she was still experiencing waves of symptoms. “Before this, I was a fit, healthy 32-year-old,” she said. “Now I’ve been reduced to not being able to stand up in the shower without feeling fatigued. I’ve tried going to the supermarket and I’m in bed for days afterwards. It’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced before.” Despite her best efforts, LeClerc has not been able to get a test, but “every doctor I’ve spoken to says there’s no shadow of a doubt that this has been COVID,” she said. Today is day 80.

COVID-19 has existed for less than six months, and it is easy to forget how little we know about it. The standard view is that a minority of infected people, who are typically elderly or have preexisting health problems, end up in critical care, requiring oxygen or a ventilator. About 80 percent of infections, according to the World Health Organization, “are mild or asymptomatic,” and patients recover after two weeks, on average. Yet support groups on Slack and Facebook host thousands of people like LeClerc, who say they have been wrestling with serious COVID-19 symptoms for at least a month, if not two or three. Some call themselves “long-termers” or “long-haulers.”

I interviewed nine of them for this story, all of whom share commonalities. Most have never been admitted to an ICU or gone on a ventilator, so their cases technically count as “mild.” But their lives have nonetheless been flattened by relentless and rolling waves of symptoms that make it hard to concentrate, exercise, or perform simple physical tasks. Most are young. Most were previously fit and healthy. “It is mild relative to dying in a hospital, but this virus has ruined my life,” LeClerc said. “Even reading a book is challenging and exhausting. What small joys other people are experiencing in lockdown—yoga, bread baking—are beyond the realms of possibility for me.”

Even though the world is consumed by concern over COVID-19, the long-haulers have been largely left out of the narrative and excluded from the figures that define the pandemic. I can pull up an online dashboard that reveals the numbers of confirmed cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and recoveries—but LeClerc falls into none of those categories. She and others are trapped in a statistical limbo, uncounted and thus overlooked.

Some have been diagnosed through tests, while others, like LeClerc, have been told by their doctors that they almost certainly have COVID-19. Still, many long-haulers have faced disbelief from friends and medical professionals because they don’t conform to the typical profile of the disease. People have questioned how they could possibly be so sick for so long, or whether they’re just stressed or anxious. “It feels like no one understands,” said Chloe Kaplan from Washington, D.C., who works in education and is on day 78. “I don’t think people are aware of the middle ground, where it knocks you off your feet for weeks, and you neither die nor have a mild case.”

The notion that most cases are mild and brief bolsters the belief that only the sick and elderly need isolate themselves, and that everyone else can get infected and be done with it. “It establishes a framework in which ‘not hiding’ from the disease looks a manageable and sensible undertaking,” writes Felicity Callard, a geographer at the University of Glasgow, who is on day 77. As the pandemic discourse turns to talk of a second wave, long-haulers who are still grappling with the consequences of the first wave are frustrated. “I’ve been very concerned by friends and family who just aren’t taking this seriously because they think you’re either asymptomatic or dead,” said Hannah Davis, an artist from New York City, who is on day 71. “This middle ground has been hellish.”

It “has been like nothing else on Earth,” said Paul Garner, who has previously endured dengue fever and malaria, and is currently on day 77 of COVID-19. Garner, an infectious-diseases professor at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, leads a renowned organization that reviews scientific evidence on preventing and treating infections. He tested negative on day 63. He had waited to get a COVID-19 test partly to preserve them for health-care workers, and partly because, at one point, he thought he was going to die. “I knew I had the disease; it couldn’t have been anything else,” he told me. I asked him why he thought his symptoms had persisted. “I honestly don’t know,” he said. “I don’t understand what’s happening in my body.”

On March 17, a day after LeClerc came down with her first symptoms, SARS-CoV-2 sent Fiona Lowenstein to the hospital. Nine days later, after she was discharged, she started a Slack support group for people struggling with the disease. The group, which is affiliated with a wellness organization founded by Lowenstein called Body Politic, has been a haven for long-haulers. One channel for people whose symptoms have lasted longer than 30 days has more than 3,700 members.

“The group was a savior for me,” said Gina Assaf, a design consultant in Washington, D.C., who is now on day 77. She and other members with expertise in research and survey design have now sampled 640 people from the Body Politic group and beyond. Their report is neither representative nor peer-reviewed, but it provides a valuable snapshot of the long-hauler experience.

Of those surveyed, about three in five are between the ages of 30 and 49. About 56 percent have not been hospitalized, while another 38 percent have visited the ER but were not admitted. About a quarter have tested positive for COVID-19 and almost half have never been tested at all. Some became sick in mid-March, when their home countries were severely short on tests. (Most survey respondents live in the U.S. and the U.K.) Others were denied testing because their symptoms didn’t match the standard set. Angela Meriquez Vázquez, a children’s activist in Los Angeles, had gastrointestinal problems and lost her sense of smell, but because she didn’t have a cough and her fever hadn’t topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit, she didn’t meet L.A.’s testing criteria. By the time those criteria were loosened, Vázquez was on day 14. She got a test, and it came back negative. (She is now on day 69.)

A quarter of respondents in the Body Politic survey have tested negative, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have COVID-19. Diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 miss infections up to 30 percent of the time, and these false negatives become more likely a week after a patient’s first symptoms appear. In the Body Politic survey, respondents with negative test results were tested a week after those with positive ones, on average, but the groups did not differ in their incidence of 60 different symptoms over time. Those matching patterns strongly suggest that those with negative tests are indeed dealing with the same disease. They also suggest that the true scope of the pandemic has been underestimated, not just because of the widespread lack of testing but because many people who are getting tested are receiving false negatives.

COVID-19 affects many different organs—that much is now clear. But in March, when many long-haulers were first falling sick with gut, heart, and brain problems, the disease was still regarded as a mainly respiratory one. To date, the only neurological symptom that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists in its COVID-19 description is a loss of taste or smell. But other neurological symptoms are common among the long-haulers who answered the Body Politic survey.

As many people reported “brain fogs” and concentration challenges as coughs or fevers. Some have experienced hallucinations, delirium, short-term memory loss, or strange vibrating sensations when they touch surfaces. Others are likely having problems with their sympathetic nervous system, which controls unconscious processes like heartbeats and breathing: They’ll be out of breath even when their oxygen level is normal, or experience what feel like heart attacks even though EKG readings and chest X-rays are clear. These symptoms wax, wane, and warp over time. “It really is a grab bag,” said Davis, who is a co-author of the Body Politic survey. “Every day you wake up and you might have a different symptom.”

It’s not clear why this happens. Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale, offers three possibilities. Long-haulers might still harbor infectious virus in some reservoir organ, which is missed by tests that use nasal swabs. Or persistent fragments of viral genes, though not infectious, may still be triggering a violent immune overreaction, as if “you’re reacting to a ghost of a virus,” Iwasaki says. More likely, the virus is gone but the immune system, having been provoked by it, is stuck in a lingering overactive state.

It’s hard to distinguish between these hypotheses, because SARS-CoV-2 is new and because the aftermath of viral infections is poorly understood. Many diseases cause long-lasting symptoms, but these might go unnoticed as trends unless epidemics are especially large. “Nearly every single person with Ebola has some long-term chronic complication, from subtle to obviously debilitating,” says Craig Spencer of the Columbia University Medical Center, who caught the virus himself in 2014. Some of those persistent problems had been noted during early Ebola outbreaks, but weren’t widely appreciated until 28,600 people were infected in West Africa from 2013 to 2016.

The sheer scale of the COVID-19 pandemic, which reached more than 6 million confirmed cases worldwide in a matter of months, means that long-haulers are now finding one another in sufficient numbers to shape their own narrative.

As the pandemic continues, long-haulers are navigating a landscape of uncertainty and fear with a map whose landmarks don’t reflect their surroundings. If your symptoms last for longer than two weeks, for how long should you expect to be sick? If they differ from the official list, how do you know which ones are important? “I’m acutely aware of my body at all times of the day,” LeClerc told me. “It shrinks your entire world to an almost reptilian response to your surroundings.”

If you’re still symptomatic, could you conceivably infect someone else if you leave your home? Garner, the infectious disease expert, is confident that this far out, he’s not shedding live virus anymore. But Meg Hamilton, who is a nursing student in Odenton, Maryland—and, full disclosure, my sister-in-law—said that her local health department considered her to be contagious as long as she had a fever; she is on day 56, and has only had a few normal temperature readings. Davis said that she and her partner, who live in different apartments, talked through the risks and decided to reunite on day 59. Until then, she had been dealing with two months of COVID-19 alone.

The isolation of the pandemic has been hard enough for many healthy people. But it has exacerbated the foggy minds, intense fatigue, and perpetual fear of erratic symptoms that long-haulers are also dealing with. “It plays with your head, man,” Garner said. Some feel guilt over being incapacitated even though their cases are “mild.” Some start doubting or blaming themselves. In her fourth week of fever, Hamilton began obsessively worrying that she had been using her thermometer incorrectly. “I also felt like I wasn’t being mentally strong enough, and by allowing myself to say that I don’t feel good, I was prolonging the fever,” she said.

Then there’s the matter of who to tell—and when. At first, Hamilton kept the news from her parents. She didn’t want them to worry, and she assumed she’d be better in two weeks. But as two weeks became three, then four, then five, the omission started feeling like an outright lie. Her concern that they would be worried morphed into concern that they would be mad. (She finally told them last week; they took it well.)

Other long-haulers have been frustrated by their friends’ and families’ inability to process a prolonged illness. “People know how to react to you having it or to you getting better,” LeClerc said. But when symptoms are rolling instead of abating, “people don’t have a response they can reach for.” They ask if she’s improving, in expectation that the answer is yes. When the answer is instead a list of ever-changing symptoms, they stop asking. Others pivot to disbelief. “I’ve had messages saying this is all in your head, or it’s anxiety,” LeClerc said.

Many such messages come from doctors and nurses. Davis described her memory loss and brain fog to a neurologist, who told her she had ADHD. “You feel really scared: These are people you’re trying to get serious help from, and they don’t even understand your reality,” she said. Vázquez said her physicians repeatedly told her she was just having panic attacks—but she knows herself well enough to discount that. “My anxiety is thought-based,” but with COVID-19, “the physical symptoms happen first,” she said.

Athena Akrami, a neuroscience professor at University College London, said two doctors suggested that she was stressed, while a fellow neuroscientist told her to calm down and take antidepressants. “I’m a very calm person, and something is wrong in my body,” said Akrami, who is now on day 79, and is also a co-author on the Body Politic survey. “As a scientist, I understand there are so many unknowns about the virus, but as a patient, I need acknowledgment.” Every day, Akrami said, “is like being in a tunnel.”

To be sure, many health-care workers are also exhausted, having spent several months fighting a new disease that they barely understand, without enough masks and other protective supplies. But well before the pandemic, the health-care profession had a long history of medical gaslighting—downplaying a patient’s physical suffering as being all in their head, or caused by stress or anxiety. Such dismissals particularly affect women, who are “less likely to be perceived as credible witnesses to our own experiences,” said LeClerc. And they’re especially common when women have subjective symptoms like pain or fatigue, as most long-haulers do. When Garner wrote about those same symptoms for the British Medical Journal’s blog, “I had an unbelievable feeling of relief,” Callard, the geographer, told me. “Since he’s a guy and a professor of infectious disease, he has the kind of epistemic authority that will be harder to discount.”

Garner’s descriptions of his illness are similar to those of many long-haulers who have been taken less seriously. “It wasn’t like he wrote those posts in some arcane language that’s steeped in authority,” said Sarah Ramey, a musician and author in Washington, D.C. “If you took his words, put my name on them, and put them up on Medium, people would say, ‘Ugh, who is this person and what is she talking about?’”

Ramey can empathize with long-haulers. In her memoir, The Lady’s Handbook for Her Mysterious Illness, she writes about her 17-year ordeal of excruciating pain, crushing fatigue, gastro-catastrophes, and medical gaslighting. “Being isolated and homebound, incredible economic insecurity, the government not doing enough, testing not being up to snuff—all of that is the lived experience of someone like me for decades,” she says. “The illness itself is horrible and ravaging, but being told you’ve made it up, over and over again, is by far the worst of it.”

Formally, Ramey has myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and complex regional pain syndrome. Informally, she’s part of a group she has dubbed WOMIs—women with mysterious illnesses. Such conditions include ME/CFS, fibromyalgia, and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. They disproportionately affect women; have unclear causes, complex but debilitating symptoms, and no treatments; and are hard to diagnose and easy to dismiss. According to the Institute of Medicine, 836,000 to 2.5 million people in the U.S. alone have ME/CFS. Between 84 and 91 percent are undiagnosed.

That clusters of ME/CFS have followed many infectious outbreaks is noteworthy. In such events, some people get better quickly, others are sick for longer with postviral fatigue, and still others are suffering months or years later. In one Australian study, 11 percent of people infected with Ross River virus, Epstein-Barr virus, or the bacterium behind Q fever were diagnosed with ME/CFS after six months. In a study of 233 Hong Kong residents who survived the SARS epidemic of 2003, about 40 percent had chronic-fatigue problems after three years or so, and 27 percent met the CDC’s criteria for ME/CFS. Many different acute pathogens seem to trigger the same inflammatory responses that culminate in the same chronic endgame. Many individuals in this community are worried about COVID-19, according to Ramey: “You’ve got this highly infectious virus sweeping around the world, and it would be unusual if you didn’t see a big uptick in ME/CFS cases.”

ME/CFS is typically diagnosed when symptoms persist for six months or more, and the new coronavirus has barely been infecting humans for that long. Still, many of the long-haulers’ symptoms “sound exactly like those that patients in our community experience,” says Jennifer Brea, the executive director of the advocacy group #MEAction.

LeClerc, Akrami, and others have noted that their symptoms reappear when they try to regain a measure of agency by cleaning, working out, or even doing yoga. This is post-exertional malaise—the defining feature of ME/CFS. It’s a severe multi-organ crash that follows activity as light as a short walk. It’s also distinct from mere exhaustion: You can’t just push through it, and you’ll feel much worse if you try. The ME/CFS community has learned that resting as much as possible in the early months of postviral fatigue is crucial. Garner learned that lesson the hard way. After writing that “my disease has lifted,” he did a high-intensity workout, and was bedridden for three days. He is now reading literature about ME/CFS and listening to his sister, who has had the disease. “We have much to learn from that community,” he says.

The symptoms of ME/CFS have long been trivialized; its patients disbelieved; its researchers underfunded. The condition is especially underdiagnosed among black and brown communities, who are also disproportionately likely to be infected and killed by COVID-19. If the pandemic creates a large population of people who have symptoms that are similar to those of ME/CFS, it might trigger research into this and other overlooked diseases. Several teams of scientists are already planning studies of COVID-19 patients to see if any become ME/CFS patients—and why. Brea says she would welcome such a development. But she also feels “a lot of grief for people who may have to walk that path, [and] grief for the time we could have spent over the last four decades researching this so we’d have a better understanding of how to treat patients now.”

Some long-haulers will get better. The Body Politic Slack support group has a victories channel, where people post about promising moments on the road to recovery. Such stories were scarce last month, but more have appeared in the past weeks. The celebrations are always tentative, though. Good days are intermingled with terrible ones. “It’s a reverse-circling of the drain,” Vázquez said. “It has gotten better, but I track that trajectory in weeks, not days.” The COVID-19 dashboard from Johns Hopkins shows that about 2.7 million people around the world have “recovered” from the disease. But recovery is not a simple matter of flipping a switch. For some, it will take more time than the entire duration of the pandemic thus far.

Some survivors will have scar tissue from the coronavirus’s assault on their lungs. Some will still be weak after lengthy stays in ICUs or on ventilators. Some will eventually be diagnosed with ME/CFS. Whatever the case, as the pandemic progresses, the number of people with medium-to-long-term disabilities will increase. “Some science fiction—and more than a few tech bros—have led us to believe in a nondisabled future,” says Ashley Shew of Virginia Tech, who studies the intersection between technology and disability. “But whether through environmental catastrophe, or new viruses, we can expect more, exacerbated, and new disabilities.”

In the early 1950s, polio permanently disabled tens of thousands of people in the U.S. every year, most of whom were children or teenagers who “saw their futures as able and healthy,” Shew says. In the ’60s and ’70s, those survivors became pioneers of the disability-rights movement in the U.S.

Perhaps COVID-19 will similarly galvanize an even larger survivor cohort. Perhaps, collectively, they can push for a better understanding of neglected chronic diseases, and an acceptance of truths that the existing disability community have long known. That health and sickness are not binary. That medicine is as much about listening to patients’ subjective experiences as it is about analyzing their organs. That being a survivor is something you must also survive.

 

Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/?fbclid=IwAR3J402h_abt63p-JDNEEBrNwrZ_nRjQza8OKxtV9xmtt4n5Oky-droY_-c&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S. ...

Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel coronavirus infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a research study published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.

A separate study from epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimated the shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom, and dropped infection rates by an average of 82 percent, sufficient to drive the contagion well below epidemic levels.

The two reports, published simultaneously Monday in the journal Nature, used completely different methods to reach similar conclusions. They suggest that the aggressive and unprecedented shutdowns, which caused massive economic disruptions and job losses, were effective at halting the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus.

“Without these policies employed, we would have lived through a very different April and May,” said Solomon Hsiang, director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California at Berkeley, and the leader of the research team that surveyed how six countries — China, the United States, France, Italy, Iran and South Korea — responded to the pandemic.

He called the global response to covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, “an extraordinary moment in human history when the world had to come together,” and said the shutdowns and other mitigation measures resulted in “saving more lives in a shorter period of time than ever before.”

The two reports on the effectiveness of the shutdowns come with a clear warning that the pandemic, even if in retreat in some of the places hardest hit, is far from over. The overwhelming majority of people remain susceptible to the virus. Only about 3 percent to 4 percent of people in the countries being studied have been infected to date, said Samir Bhatt, senior author of the Imperial College London study.

“This is just the beginning of the epidemic: we’re very far from herd immunity,” Bhatt said Monday in an email. “The risk of a second wave happening if all interventions and precautions are abandoned is very real.”

In a teleconference with reporters later, Bhatt said economic activity could return to some degree so long as some interventions to limit viral spread remain in place: “We’re not saying the country needs to stay locked down forever.”

The Berkeley study used an “econometric” model to estimate how 1,717 interventions, such as stay-at-home orders, business closings and travel bans, altered the spread of the virus. The researchers looked at infection rates before and after the interventions were imposed. Some of these interventions were local, and some regional or national. The researchers concluded that the six countries collectively managed to avert 62 million test-confirmed infections.

Because most people who are infected never get tested, the actual number of infections that were averted is much higher — about 530 million in the six countries, the Berkeley researchers estimated.

Timing is crucial, the Berkeley study found. Small delays in implementing shutdowns can lead to “dramatically different health outcomes.” The report, while reviewing what worked and what made little difference, is clearly aimed at the many countries still early in their battle against the coronavirus.

“Societies around the world are weighing whether the health benefits of anti-contagion policies are worth their social and economic costs,” the Berkeley team wrote. The economic costs of shutdowns are highly visible — closed stores, huge job losses, empty streets, food lines. The health benefits of the shutdowns, however, are invisible, because they involve “infections that never occurred and deaths that did not happen,” Hsiang said.

That spurred the researchers to come up with their estimates of infections prevented. The Berkeley team did not produce an estimate of lives saved.

One striking finding: School closures did not show a significant effect, although the authors cautioned that their research on this was not conclusive and the effectiveness of school closures requires further study. Banning large gatherings had more of an effect in Iran and Italy than in the other countries.

In discussing their findings Monday with reporters in the teleconference, leaders of the two research teams said challenges exist in crafting their models and thus there are uncertainties in the final estimates.

Bhatt, for example, said the model used by his team is highly sensitive to assumptions about the infection fatality rate, estimates for which have varied among researchers and from one country to another. He said his team was heartened to see that its estimates for the number of people infected so far is generally consistent with antibody surveys that attempt to calculate the attack rate of the virus.

Ian Bolliger, one of the Berkeley researchers, acknowledged the difficulty in obtaining reliable numbers for coronavirus infections given the haphazard pattern of testing for the virus. Both research teams said the peer review process had made their findings more robust.

 

 

 

 

How the CDC “missed its moment”

https://mailchi.mp/9f24c0f1da9a/the-weekly-gist-june-5-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

CDC releases new guidance for colleges on reducing coronavirus spread

If, like us, you’ve been wondering exactly why the CDC always seems to be a step behind in responding to the pandemic, a new, in-depth New York Times piece helps elucidate the myriad challenges—structural, cultural and political—that led to the agency’s flawed response.

Given the CDC’s history, it should have been the world’s “undisputed leader” in the pandemic response. But its early reticence to absorb lessons from other countries, combined with flawed testing, slowed down responses across the nation. While much has been made of political machinations within the Trump administration, a deep-rooted bureaucratic and exacting culture left the CDC ill-suited to respond to a crisis of this scale, requiring improvisation and rapid adaptation.

Career scientists and epidemiologists clashed with CDC leader Dr. Robert Redfield, who was eclipsed by Drs. Tony Fauci and Deborah Birx in public communication. But even if it were firing on all cylinders, the CDC is only one of the many parts of government at the table for what should have been a coordinated, all-government response.

Whether led by the CDC or another entity, the pandemic response has highlighted the need for a massive overhaul of the nation’s public health system, so that future challenges—both COVID-related and beyond—are met with a rapid and coordinated response.