Last week, the nation’s two largest Medicare Advantage insurers revealed that second quarter outpatient volumes were higher than anticipated, prompting a selloff of insurance stocks.
Minnetonka, MN-based UnitedHealth Group (UHG) executives said at a Goldman Sachs investor conference that increased outpatient utilization was driving up its medical loss ratio (MLR) to the high end of its annual target, surmising that a new wave of seniors were finally accessing elective procedures like joint replacements postponed throughout COVID.
Then, in an investor filling, Louisville, KY-based Humana noted that both outpatient and inpatient utilization levels were elevated, though it did not point to any specific causes. But not all insurers have experienced higher-than-expected utilization: Indianapolis, IN-based Elevance Health reported that its medical spending this year so far was in line with expectations, and it did not expect a surge in procedure demand.
The Gist: Health systems will find this news, especially Humana’s reports of elevated inpatient and emergency department volumes, as encouraging as the insurers consider it alarming. But the bulk of this outpatient volume isn’t necessarily returning to health systems, as the proliferation of insurer- and investor-backed ambulatory surgery centers has resulted in not only more, but also lower-cost, competition.
Health systems with significant ambulatory surgery center footprints, including Tenet and HCA, should be well-positioned to capture the volume return.
Health systems are ramping up investments in ambulatory surgery centers and forming joint ventures with outpatient partners to accelerate the development of new centers. The trend is picking up steam as complex procedures increasingly move to ASCs, which are steadily growing as the preferred site of service for physicians, patients and payers.
Tenet Healthcare, one of the largest for-profit health systems in the country, has been paying close attention to outpatient migration for years and has cemented itself as the leader in the ASC space. It now operates more than 445 ASCs — the most of any health system — and 24 surgical hospitals, according to its first-quarter earnings report.
United Surgical Partners International, Tenet’s ASC company, strengthened its footing in the ASC market after its $1.2 billion acquisition of Towson, Md.-based SurgCenter Development and its more than 90 ASCs in December 2021. Over the next several years, USPI will inject more than $250 million into ASC mergers and acquisitions and work with SurgCenter to develop at least 50 more ASCs, according to terms of the transaction.
The SurgCenter acquisition was completed shortly after Tenet sold five Florida hospitals to Dallas-based Steward Health Care for $1.1 billion. In 2022, Tenet also acquired Dallas-based Baylor Scott & White Health’s 5 percent equity position in USPI to own 100 percent of the company’s voting shares and paid $78 million to acquire ownership of eight Compass Surgical Partners ASCs.
These ASC investments and hospital sales make it clear that CEO Saum Sutaria, MD, sees surgery centers to become Tenet’s main growth driver in the coming years. Dr. Sutaria has described USPI as the company’s “gem for the future,” and aims to have 575 to 600 ASCs by the end of 2025.
While Tenet continues to increase its ASC market share, its closest competitor is Deerfield, Ill.-based SCA Health, which UnitedHealth Group’s Optum acquired for $2.3 billion several years ago.
SCA has more than 320 ASCs, but has expanded its focus on value-based care under Optum and is doubling down on supporting physicians across the specialty care continuum rather than operating as an ASC company “singularly focused on partnering with surgeons in their ASCs,” SCA CEO Caitlin Zulla told Becker’s.
While Tenet may operate the most ASCs among health systems, it lags behind Optum in terms of the number of physicians it employs. Optum is now affiliated with more than 70,000 physicians, making it the largest employer of physicians in the country, and is continuing to add to that through mergers and acquisitions.
Nashville, Tenn.-based HCA Healthcare, another for-profit system, employs or is affiliated with more than 47,000 physicians, but is also ramping up its surgery center portfolio. HCA comprises 2,300 ambulatory care facilities, including more than 150 ASCs, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics, according to its first-quarter earnings report.
Like Tenet and Optum, HCA is heavily focused on expanding its outpatient portfolio. The company ended 2021 with 125 ASCs, four more than it had at the end of 2020, and added more than 25 ASCs last year. It is focused on both developing and acquiring surgery centers in the coming years.
The other big ASC operators include Nashville, Tenn.-based AmSurg, with more than 250 surgery centers, and Brentwood, Tenn.-based Surgery Partners, with more than 120 centers. Surgery Partners spent about $250 million on ASCs acquisitions last year and recently signed collaboration agreements with two large health systems —- Salt Lake City-based Intermountain Health and Columbus-based OhioHealth.
Oakland, Calif.-based Kaiser Permanente has 62 freestanding ASCs and outpatient surgery departments on its hospital campuses, a spokesperson for the health system told Becker’s.
Two important reports released last Wednesday point to a disconnect in how policymakers are managing the U.S. economy and how the health economy fits.
Report One: The Federal Reserve Open Market Meeting
At its meeting last week, the Governors of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 5% to 5.25%–the first time since last March that the Fed has concluded a policy meeting without raising interest rates.
In its statement by Chairman Powell, the central bank left open the possibility of additional rate hikes this year which means interest rates could hit 5.6% before trending slightly lower in 2024.
In conjunction with the (FOMC) meeting, meeting participants submitted projections of the most likely outcomes for each year from 2023 to 2025 and over the longer run:
Median
2023
2024
2025
Longer Run
Longer Run Range
% Change in GDP
1.1
1.1
1.8
1.8
1.6-2.5
Unemployment rate &
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.0
3.6-4.4
PCE Inflation rate
3.2
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
Core PCE Inflation
3.9
2.6
2.2
*
*
*Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
Notes re: the Fed’s projections based on these indicators:
The GDP (a measure of economic growth) is expected to increase 1% more this year than anticipated in its March 2023 analysis while estimates for 2024 were lowered just slightly by 0.1%. Economic growth will continue but at a slower pace.
The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.1% by the end of 2023, a smaller rise in joblessness than the previous estimate of 4.5%. (As of May, the unemployment rate was 3.7%). Unemployment is returning to normalcy impacting the labor supply and wages.
inflation: as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, will be 3.2% at the end of 2023 vs. 3.3% they previously projected. By the end of 2024, it expects inflation will be 2.5% reaching 2.1% at the end of 2025. Its 2.0% target is within reach on or after 2025 barring unforeseen circumstances.
Core inflation projections, which excludes energy and food prices, increased: the Fed now anticipates 3.9% by the end of 2023–0.3% above the March estimate. Price concerns will continue among consumers.
Based on these projections, two conclusions about nation’s monetary policy may be deduced the Fed’s report and discussion:
The Fed is cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy in for the near term (through 2025) while acknowledging uncertainty exists.
Interest rates will continue to increase but at a slower rate than 2022 making borrowing and operating costs higher and creditworthiness might also be under more pressure.
Report Two: CMS
On the same day as the Fed meeting, the actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released their projections for overall U.S. national healthcare spending for the next several years:
“CMS projects that over 2022-2031, average annual growth in NHE (5.4%) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.6%), resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031. The insured percentage of the population is projected to have reached a historic high of 92.3% in 2022 (due to high Medicaid enrollment and gains in Marketplace coverage). It is expected to remain at that rate through 2023. Given the expiration of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition on March 31, 2023 and the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations, Medicaid enrollment is projected to fall over 2023-2025, most notably in 2024, with an expected net loss in enrollment of 8 million beneficiaries. If current law provisions in the Affordable Care Act are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, the insured share of the population is projected to be 91.2%. In 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5%, similar to pre-pandemic levels.”
The report includes CMS’ assumptions for 4 major payer categories:
Medicare Part D: Several provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are expected to result in out-of-pocket savings for individuals enrolled in Medicare Part D. These provisions have notable effects on the growth rates for total out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs, which are projected to decline by 5.9% in 2024, 4.2% in 2025, and 0.2% in 2026.
Medicare: Average annual expenditure growth of 7.5% is projected for Medicare over 2022-2031. In 2022, the combination of fee-for-service beneficiaries utilizing emergent hospital care at lower rates and the reinstatement of payment rate cuts associated with the Medicare Sequester Relief Act of 2022 resulted in slower Medicare spending growth of 4.8% (down from 8.4% in 2021).
Medicaid: On average, over 2022-2031, Medicaid expenditures are projected to grow by 5.0%. With the end of the continuous enrollment condition in 2023, Medicaid enrollment is projected to decline over 2023-2025, with most of the net loss in enrollment (8 million) occurring in 2024 as states resume annual Medicaid redeterminations. Medicaid enrollment is expected to increase and average less than 1% through 2031, with average expenditure growth of 5.6% over 2025-2031.
Private Health Insurance: Over 2022-2031, private health insurance spending growth is projected to average 5.4%. Despite faster growth in private health insurance enrollment in 2022 (led by increases in Marketplace enrollment related to the American Rescue Plan Act’s subsidies), private health insurance expenditures are expected to have risen 3.0% (compared to 5.8% in 2021) due to lower utilization growth, especially for hospital services.
And for the 3 major recipient/payee categories:
Hospitals: Over 2022-2031, hospital spending growth is expected to average 5.8% annually. In 2023, faster growth in hospital utilization rates and accelerating growth in hospital prices (related to economy wide inflation and rising labor costs) are expected to lead to faster hospital spending growth of 9.3%. For 2025-2031, hospital spending trends are expected to normalize (with projected average annual growth of 6.1%) as there is a transition away from pandemic public health emergency funding impacts on spending.
Physicians and Clinical Services: Growth in physician and clinical services spending is projected to average 5.3% over 2022-2031. An expected deceleration in growth in 2022, to 2.4% from 5.6% in 2021, reflects slowing growth in the use of services following the pandemic-driven rebound in use in 2021. For 2025-2031, average spending growth for physician and clinical services is projected to be 5.7%, with an expectation that average Medicare spending growth (8.1%) for these services will exceed that of average Private Health Insurance growth (4.6%) partly as a result of comparatively faster growth in Medicare enrollment.
Prescription Drugs: Total expenditures for retail prescription drugs are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% over 2022-2031. For 2025-2031, total spending growth on prescription drugs is projected to average 4.8%, reflecting the net effects of key IRA provisions: Part D benefit enhancements (putting upward pressure on Medicare spending growth) and price negotiations/inflation rebates (putting downward pressure on Medicare and out-of-pocket spending growth).
Thus, CMS Actuaries believe spending for healthcare will be considerably higher than the growth of the overall economy (GDP) and inflation and become 19.6% of the total US economy in 2031. And it also projects that the economy will absorb annual spending increases for hospitals (5.8%) physician and clinical services (5.3%) and prescription drugs (4.6%).
My take:
Side-by-side, these reports present a curious projection for the U.S. economy through 2031: the overall economy will return to a slightly lower-level pre-pandemic normalcy and the healthcare industry will play a bigger role despite pushback from budget hawks preferring lower government spending and employers and consumers frustrated by high health prices today.
They also point to two obvious near-term problems:
1-The Federal Reserve pays inadequate attention to the healthcare economy. In Chairman Powell’s press conference following release of the FOMC report, there was no comment relating healthcare demand or spending to the broader economy nor a question from any of the 20 press corps relating healthcare to the overall economy. In his opening statement (below), Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed’s focus on prices and called out food, housing and transportation specifically but no mention of healthcare prices and costs which are equivalent or more stressful to household financial security:
“Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people…My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective.”
2-Congress is reticent to make substantive changes in Medicare and other healthcare programs despite its significance in the U.S. economy. It’s politically risky. In the June 2 Congressional standoff to lift the $31.4 debt ceiling, cuts to Medicare and Social Security were specifically EXCLUDED. Medicare is 12% of mandated spending in the 2022 federal budget and is expected to grow from a rate of 4.8% in 2022 to 8% in 2023—good news for investors in Medicare Advantage but concerning to consumers and employers facing higher prices as a result.
Even simplifying the Medicare program to replace its complicated Parts A, B, C, and D programs or addressing over-payments to Medicare Advantage plans (in 2022, $25 billion per MedPAC and $75 billion per USC) is politically tricky. It’s safer for elected officials to support price transparency (hospitals, drugs & insurers) and espouse replacing fee for service payments with “value” than step back and address the bigger issue: how should the health system be structured and financed to achieve lower costs and better health…not just for seniors or other groups but everyone.
These two realities contribute to the disconnect between the Fed and CMS. Looking back 20 years across 4 Presidencies, two economic downturns and the pandemic, it’s also clear the health economy’s emergence did not occur overnight as the Fed navigated its monetary policy. Consider:
National health expenditures were $1.366 trillion (13.3% of GDP) in 2000 and $4.255 billion in 2021 (18.3% of the GDP). This represents 210% increase in nominal spending and a 37.5% increase in the relative percentage of the nation’s GDP devoted to healthcare. No other sector in the economy has increased as much.
In the same period, the population increased 17% from 282 million to 334 million while per capita healthcare spending increased 166% from $4,845 to $12,914. This disproportionate disconnect between population and health spending growth is attributed by economists to escalating unit costs increases for the pills, facilities, technologies and specialty-provider services we use—their underlying cost escalation notably higher than other industries.
There were notable changes in where dollars were spent: hospitals were unchanged (from $415 billion/30.4% of total spending to $1.323 trillion/31.4% of total spending), physician services shrank (from $288.2 billion/21.1% of total spending to 664.6 billion/15.6% pf total spending), prescription drugs were unchanged (from $122.3 billion/8.95% to $378 billion/8.88% of total spending) and public health increased slightly (from $43 billion/$3.2% of total spending to $187.6 billion/4.4% of total spending).
And striking differences in sources of funding: out of pocket spending shrank from $193.6/14.2% of payments to $433 billion/10.2% % of payments; private insurance shrank from $441 billion/32.3% of payments to $1.21 trillion/28.4% of total payments; Medicare grew from $224.8 billion/16.5% of payments to $900.8 billion/21.2% of payments; Medicaid + CHIP grew from $203.4 billion/14.9% to $756.2 billion/17.8% of payments; and Veterans Health grew from $19.1 billion/1.4% of payments to $106.0 billion/2.5% of payments.
Thus, if these trends continue…
Aggregate payments to providers from government programs will play a bigger role and payments from privately insured individuals and companies will play a lesser role.
Hospital price increases will exceed price increases for physician services and prescription drugs.
Spending for healthcare will (continue to) exceed overall economic growth requiring additional funding from taxpayers, employers and consumers AND/OR increased dependence on private investments that require shareholder return AND/OR a massive restructure of the entire system to address its structure and financing.
What’s clear from these reports is the enormity of the health economy today and tomorrow, the lack of adequate attention and Congressional Action to address its sustainability and the range of unintended, negative consequences on households and every other industry if left unattended. It’s illustrative of the disconnect between the Fed and CMS: one assumes it controls the money supply while delegating to the other spending and policies independent of broader societal issues and concerns.
The health economy needs fresh attention from inside and outside the industry. Its impact includes not only the wellbeing of its workforce and services provided its users. It includes its direct impact on household financial security, community health and the economic potential of other industries who get less because healthcare gets more.
Securing the long-term sustainability of the U.S. economy and its role in world affairs cannot be appropriately addressed unless its health economy is more directly integrated and scrutinized. That might be uncomfortable for insiders but necessary for the greater good. Recognition of the disconnect between the Fed and CMS is a start!
Last Thursday, the Senate Finance Committee heard testimony from experts who offered damning testimony about hospital consolidation (excerpts below). Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) gaveled the session to order with this commentary:
“I’d like to talk about health care costs and quality. Advocates for proposed mergers often say they will bring lower health costs due to increased efficiency. Time after time, it’s simply not proven to be the case. When hospitals merge, prices go up, not down. When insurers merge, premiums go up, not down. And quality of care is not any better with this higher cost. “
Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) offered a more conciliatory assessment in his opening statement: “In exploring and addressing these problems, we have the opportunity to build on our efforts to improve medication access and affordability by taking a broader look at the health care system through a similarly bipartisan, consensus-based lens…We need to examine the drivers of consolidation, as well as its effects on care quality and costs, both for patients and taxpayers. We also need to develop focused, bipartisan and bicameral solutions that reduce out-of-pocket spending while protecting access to lifesaving services.”
Congress’ concern about consolidation in healthcare is broad-based. Pharmacy benefits managers and health insurers face similar scrutiny. Drug price control referenda have passed in several states and a federal cap was included in the Inflation Reduction Act.
The reality is this: the entire U.S. health system is on trial in the court of public opinion for ‘careless disregard for affordability’. And hospitals are seen as part of the problem justifying consolidation as a defense mechanism.
What followed in this 3-hour hearing was testimony from 3 experts critical of hospital consolidation, a Colorado community hospital CEO who opined to competition with big hospital systems and a Peterson Foundation spokesperson who offered that data access and transparency are necessary to mitigate consolidation’s downside impact.
None of their testimony was surprising. Nor were questions from the 25 members of the committee. It’s a narrative that played out in House Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means Committee hearings last month. It’s likely to continue.
Often, Congressional Hearings on healthcare issues amount to little more than political theatre. In this one, four key themes emerged:
Consolidation among hospitals has adversely impacted quality of care and affordability of healthcare. Prices have gone up without commensurate improvements in quality harming consumers.
Larger organizations use horizontal and vertical integration to strengthen their positions relative to smaller competitors. Physician employment by hospitals is concerning. Rural and safety net hospitals are impaired most.
Anti-trust efforts, price transparency mandates, data sharing and value-based programs have not been as effective as anticipated.
Physicians are victims of consolidation and corporatization in U.S. healthcare. They’re paid less because others are paid more.
While committee members varied widely in the intensity of their animosity toward hospitals, a consensus emerged that the hospital status quo is not working for voters and consumers.
My take:
Consolidation is part of everyday life. Last Tuesday’s bombshell announcement of the merger of the PGA Tour and the Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund caught the golfing world by surprise. Anti-trust issues and monopolistic behaviors are noticed by voters and lawmakers. Hospital consolidation is no exception festering suspicions among lawmakers and voters that the public’s good is ill-served. And studies showing that charity care among not-for-profit hospitals is lower than for-profit confuse and complicate.
As I listened to the hearing, I had questions…
Were all relevant perspectives presented?
Was the information provided by witnesses and cited in Committee member questioning accurate?
Will meaningful action result?
But having testified before Congressional Committees, I find myself dismissive of most hearings which seem heavy on political staging but light on meaningful insight. Many are little more than political theatre. Hospital consolidation seems different. There seems to be growing consensus that it’s harmful to some and costly to all.
Sadly, this hearing is the latest evidence that the good will built by hospital heroics in the pandemic is now forgotten. It’s clear hospital consolidation is an issue that faces strong and increased headwinds with evidence mounting—accurate or not– showing more harm than good.
Billionaire investor Charlie Munger has been vocal in expressing his concerns about U.S. healthcare, stating that it is “shot through with rampant waste” and has become “immoral.”
Munger says there are substantial problems that need to be addressed, including the presence of unnecessary costs and inefficiencies that plague the medical field.
Drawing a vivid analogy at a Daily Journal Annual Meeting, Munger compared the experience of a dying old person in many American hospitals to that of a carcass on the plains of Africa. He painted a bleak picture, describing how vultures, jackals, hyenas and other scavengers swarm around the helpless creature.
In an attempt to address these issues, Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon.com Inc., and JPMorgan Chase joined forces to establish Haven Healthcare a venture that despite their combined efforts failed to achieve its objectives.
Some startups have seen success where they failed. iRemedy, for example, is a startup using artificial intelligence (AI) technology, that offers a solution to the healthcare system’s challenges through its large procurement marketplace. Its platform streamlines the supply chain, enabling faster and more affordable access to lifesaving supplies for doctors, hospitals and healthcare providers.
Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., criticized the high costs and inefficiencies in medical care as both expensive and wrong. In a CNBC interview, he went on to claim that some medical providers artificially prolong death to increase their profits.
With over 35 years of experience as board chairman of Good Samaritan Hospital in Los Angeles, Munger expressed his belief that certain healthcare practices are absurd.
“A lot of the medical care we do deliver is wrong — so expensive and wrong. It’s ridiculous,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
In 2018, Munger predicted that when Democrats gain control of all three branches of government, there will be a push for a single-payer healthcare system. He highlighted the need for a complete change forced by the government because of the severity of the issues in the current system. He suggested that a universal healthcare system with an opt-out option would be a reasonable solution.
Warren Buffett, Munger’s longtime investing partner, shares similar concerns regarding healthcare spending, referring to it as a “tapeworm on the economic system.” Buffett believes the private sector can make substantial contributions to cost-reduction efforts.
A recent investigation conducted by Kaiser Health News-NPR shed light on the alarming reality of medical debt in the United States. The study reveals that over 100 million Americans are burdened with medical debt, placing a significant financial strain on their lives. Further analysis of the data reveals that approximately one-fourth of American adults carrying this debt owe more than $5,000.
What makes this issue even more concerning is the fact that it is not primarily driven by a lack of insurance coverage. Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people grappling with medical debt are not uninsured. Instead, it is the problem of being underinsured that is prevalent.
Many people have health insurance plans that do not offer sufficient coverage, leaving them vulnerable to high out-of-pocket expenses and accumulating medical debt.
HENRY KOTULA 