Category Archives: Economy

Iowa tells workers to return to their jobs or lose unemployment benefits, despite warnings that reopening could lead to a 2nd wave of infections

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https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-tells-workers-return-to-work-or-lose-unemployment-benefits-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR3OghoKRKsPt9JVz4TIsn_Qv5im_ZPaCmzPenmsEFgJR80YXbFJ2QWrxpE

Iowa tells workers to return to work or lose unemployment benefits ...

  • Iowa is preparing to partially reopen 77 counties on Friday.
  • The state said furloughed employees who refuse to return to work that they would lose their unemployment benefits — and Gov. Kim Reynolds said it could disqualify them from future unemployment benefits.
  • However, a group of experts advised the governor last week not to loosen restrictions and said the state has not reached its peak of infections and deaths.

As Iowa prepares to partially reopen on Friday, the state has told furloughed workers that they will lose their unemployment benefits if they refuse to return to work.

The Des Moines Register reported that businesses like restaurants, bars, retail stores, and fitness centers would be allowed to reopen at half capacity starting on May 1. Gov. Kim Reynolds said the 77 reopening counties either have no cases or are on a downward trend.

Iowa Workforce Development, a state agency that provides employment services for individual workers, said an employee’s refusal return to work out of fear would be considered a “voluntary quit” — which would mean they could no longer receive unemployment benefits. The announcement applies to workers across the state.

Ryan West, the deputy director of Iowa Workforce Development, told Radio Iowa that there were some exceptions, such as workers diagnosed with COVID-19.

The Iowa Workforce Development website prompts employers to fill out what it calls a Job Offer Decline Form for employees who refuse to return to work. The governor has said that opting not to go back to work could disqualify employees from future unemployment benefits.

Business Insider’s Andy Kiersz reported that 232,913 Iowans filed for unemployment between March 15 and April 18, which is 13.5% of the state’s labor force.

Last week, seven epidemiology and biostatistics professors from the University of Iowa advised the governor not to loosen social-distancing restrictions, KWWL reported. They wrote a research paper for the governor after they were commissioned by the Iowa Department of Public Health.

“We observe a huge range of possible outcomes, from relatively low fatalities to catastrophic loss of life,” the paper said.

The scientists said there was still “considerable uncertainty” over how many deaths the state may eventually have; the projections range from 150 to over 10,000 deaths.

“We have found evidence of a slowdown in infection and mortality rates due to social distancing policies, but not that a peak has been reached,” the paper said. The professors said that did not mean measures should be eased: “Therefore, prevention measures should remain in place. Without such measures being continued, a second wave of infections is likely.”

 

 

 

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Passes 1 Million–A Third Of All Cases Globally

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/04/28/us-coronavirus-cases-passes-1-million–a-third-of-all-cases-globally/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailydozen&cdlcid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#5526ebe370a5

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Passes 1 Million--A Third Of All Cases Globally

TOPLINE

Confirmed cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus passed 1 million in the United States Tuesday, making up a third of all global cases, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

KEY FACTS

Of the 1,002,498 Americans who have been confirmed to have contracted the disease, 57,266 have died while 112,315 have recovered.

The new milestone comes as some states announce plans for reopening, something President Trump has been adamantly pushing for as 26 million Americans lose their jobs during the pandemic.

New York, the epicenter of the outbreak with 295,106 cases, saw its hospital admittance number drop below 1,000 for the first time in a month on Monday, with Governor Andrew Cuomo detailing a plan to start easing stay-at-home restrictions in parts of the state starting as early as May 15.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, however, with the state’s 24,604 cases, has drawn criticism from health officials and even Trump for allowing businesses like restaurants, hair salons and gyms to reopen before seeing a sustained reduction in cases.

Around 5.6 million people, or about 1.7% of the population, have been tested for the coronavirus, but researchers at Harvard Global Health Institute report that the country will need to perform 3.5 million tests per week at minimum before reopening.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease doctor, warned Tuesday during an interview that “it’s inevitable that we will have a return of the virus,” and that states reopening prematurely could cause “a rebound to get us right back in the same boat that we were in a few weeks ago.”

BIG NUMBER

87%. That’s how many Americans support current social distancing restrictions, or even want stronger measures in place, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey conducted from April 16-20.

KEY BACKGROUND

The U.S. reached 500,000 cases on April 10 and 100,000 on March 27. The model prefered by the federal government increased the projected death count from the coronavirus for the second time in a week on Tuesday, now projecting 74,000 total deaths from the virus.

TANGENT

Germany has been a leader in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus, but after easing some lockdown restrictions this past week, the country saw an uptick in infection rate.

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 brings largest quarterly GDP drop since last recession

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Recession, Social Distancing, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance • Leave a comment

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/covid-19-brings-largest-quarterly-gdp-drop-since-last-recession.html?utm_medium=email

GDP sinks 4.8% in the first quarter, biggest drop since 2008 and ...

Gross domestic product in the U.S. fell 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the biggest drop the nation’s economy has seen since the last recession in 2008, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The downturn reflects how shutdowns of businesses and schools and social distancing, which started in the final three weeks of the first quarter, affected the U.S. economy. According to The Journal, many economists believe the U.S. is now in a recession, as layoffs and declines across industries hit unprecedented levels.

With the economy largely shut down in April, economists are expecting a bigger drop-off in economic activity in the second quarter of this year. A few states have started to slowly reopen their economies, but many still have social-distancing restrictions in place that extend through May.

 

 

 

 

Healthcare CFOs weigh-in on the challenges ahead

Posted on by • Posted in Capital Budget, Cash, Cash Reserves, Cash-Flow Improvements, CFO, Change, Change Management, Communication, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Cost Management, Cost Reduction, Crisis, Crisis Management, Cybersecurity, Economic Crisis, Economy, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Leadership, Leadership Cares, Leadership Flexibility, Mergers & Acquisitions, Net Income, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Quarantine, Recession, Remote Work, Sick Leave, Social Distancing, Supply Chain, Telemedicine, Uncertainty, Worker Protection • Leave a comment

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/pwc-covid-19-cfo-pulse-survey.html

What CFOs think about the economic impact of COVID-19

How finance leaders see a return to work

Business perspectives on what it will take to shift from crisis mode are solidifying. US finance leaders are focused on shoring up financial positions, as US businesses head into a period of even more operational complexity while they orchestrate a safe return to the workplace. Back-to-work playbooks put workforce health first, as companies set course for a phased-in return to the workplace that will not be uniform across the US or internationally, findings from the survey show. Returning employees and customers are going to experience a work environment that will differ in marked ways as a result. Another change likely to endure post-crisis is the strong role corporate leaders have taken within their communities, placing a renewed emphasis on environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts going forward.

The actions CFOs are taking show how US businesses continue to adjust to very difficult current conditions with an eye toward an evolving post-COVID world. The level of concern related to the crisis is holding steady. It is high but stabilizing, with 72% of respondents reporting that COVID-19 has the potential for “significant impact” to their business operations vs. 74% two weeks ago.

Key findings

Back-to-work playbooks reshape how jobs performed
49% say remote work is here to stay for some roles, as companies plan to alternate crews and reconfigure worksites.

Protecting people top of mind
77% plan to change safety measures like testing, while 50% expect higher demand for enhanced sick leave and other policy protections.

Substantive impacts expected in 2020 results
Half of all respondents (53%) are projecting a decline of at least 10% in company revenue and/or profit this year.

Cost pressures intensify
A third (32%) expect layoffs to occur, as CFOs continue to target costs, while 70% consider deferring or canceling planned investments.

Economic events shaping CFO response last week

This survey, our fourth since emergency lockdowns took effect in the US, reflects the views of 305 US finance leaders during the week of April 20. It was a week when oil futures traded below $0 as energy markets confronted downshifting global demand, Congress replenished emergency funding of $480 billion for small firms and healthcare systems, and everyone heard the call to get ready to go back to work as the US and Europe firmed up plans to ease quarantines.

Post-crisis world taking shape in plans to reboot the workplace

Health and safety are top priorities for leaders as they prepare to bring people back to on-site work. More than three-quarters (77%) are putting new safety measures in place, while others are taking steps to promote physical distancing, such as reconfiguring workspaces (65%). Findings also show where the virus may have longer-lasting impact on ways of working. Half (49%) of companies say they’re planning to make remote work a permanent option for roles that allow. That’s even higher (60%) among financial services organizations.

Takeaways

Among the small percentage of companies that are beginning to bring people back, returning to work will not mean a return to normal. Companies should consider how to help frontline managers lead with empathy, to communicate transparently and make decisions quickly so employees understand where they stand, have access to the resources available to them, and can share feedback to ensure they feel safe and get what they need. Tools such as workforce location tracking and contact tracing can help support employees with suspected or confirmed infections, while also helping to identify the level of risk exposure. Companies looking to make remote work a permanent option will need to enable leaders to manage a blended workforce of on-site and remote workers during the next 12 to 18 months.

Given that many people may be wary of returning to on-site work, there’s an opportunity for companies to create more targeted benefits to help make the transition easier. Paid sick leaves and worker protections, help with childcare, private transportation to and from work, or other benefits could help employees who may need extra flexibility or who want additional support as they prepare to come back.

Forecasting substantive impacts on 2020 performance

A majority of respondents (80%) continue to expect a decline in revenues and/or profits in 2020. Projections by sector vary, with consumer markets likely the hardest hit: one-third (32%) of CFOs expect a 25% or greater decline in revenues and/or profits this year, compared to 24% of respondents in all sectors.

Takeaways

Outlooks for financial results have held relatively steady in the survey over the last month, and are probably indicative of actual impact. Companies have had the time to evaluate the effects. CFO projections for declining revenue and profits coincide with a widening realization that the US economy is in recession. Since mid-March, jobless claims have soared past 26 million, and Congress passed relief packages of $2.5 trillion. CFOs are evaluating a wide range of scenarios that cover the health situation, the shape of the economic recovery, the spillover into the financial markets, and the resulting impacts on their business. This crisis is setting a new benchmark standard for “unknowable.”

Cost pressures intensifying

CFOs are considering additional ways to scale back on planned investment and/or other fixed costs amid volatility in demand. A third (32%) expect layoffs to occur in the next month, up from 26% two weeks ago. Protecting cash and liquidity positions is paramount. Financial impacts of COVID-19, including effects on liquidity and capital resources, remain the top concern of CFOs (71%). Over half (56%) say they are changing company financing plans, up from 46% two weeks ago.

Among other actions, 43% plan to adjust guidance, which is consistent with responses two weeks ago. This figure will likely increase as companies go through the earnings season over the next two to three weeks. Separately, 91% of respondents are planning to include a discussion of COVID-19 in external reporting. Depending on the type of company, this can mean inclusion in financial statements and/or in risk factors and MD&A results of operations, earnings release or MD&A liquidity sections.

Takeaways

Many CFOs have focused on how they can manage their cash pressures to ride out the crisis. Common approaches have included stop-gap measures, such as hiring freezes and tightening controls on discretionary costs to put an end to travel and events, or the use of contractors. Findings show that these types of cost actions are likely to continue, and they remain at the top of the CFO agenda.

Of those who say they’re considering deferring or canceling planned investments, 80% are considering facilities and general capital expenditures. At the same time, investment programs in areas that are considered important to future growth — including digital transformations, customer experience, or cybersecurity and privacy — are less likely to be targeted. CFOs will increasingly look for ways to prioritize costs in these areas, as businesses grow more confident in recovery prospects — even though current demand is subdued.

Priorities to de-risk supply chains

As companies continue to wade through mitigation efforts and start to think about recovery, many are planning changes to make their supply chains more resilient. Findings show CFOs prioritizing specific actions: 56% cite developing alternate options for sourcing, and 54% say better understanding the financial and operational health of their suppliers.

Takeaways

Findings confirm an emphasis on de-risking supply chains, as companies prioritize the health and reliability of their supplier base among changes they’re planning as a result of COVID-19. In particular, there is a focus on managing risk around supply elements, such as reducing structural vulnerability with other sourcing options.

Some companies are starting to invest in creating data-backed profiles of their supplier base so they know where and when to look for second sources. Others are increasing communication with suppliers to better understand financial health. For many, conducting deeper financial and health reviews of suppliers will become a regular part of their business reviews. Physical supply chain relocations will likely happen only as a last resort, given the costs involved. However, automation of certain elements of the supply chain — to eliminate time-consuming manual tracking efforts and check tariff structures, for example — will likely become more common as companies seek better data to make more informed decisions.

Strategies yet to change, but tech likely to drive M&A

The impact of the outbreak on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategies remains mixed. While 40% of respondents say their company’s M&A strategy is not being affected by COVID-19, compared with 34% two weeks ago, one in five say it’s too difficult to assess what changes, if any, will need to be made to strategy. CFOs within the technology, media and telecommunications industry stand out in particular. They are less likely to report decreasing appetite for M&A due to COVID-19, compared with peers in other sectors, and 55% say the crisis hasn’t changed their M&A strategy.

Takeaways

These findings highlight the fundamental strengths of the tech sector and suggest it will be among those driving M&A in the months ahead.  Tech giants, in particular, have large cash reserves. Moreover, demand for some tech products and services is strong as businesses return to work — 40% of CFOs say they will accelerate automation and new ways of working as they transition back. Additionally, technologies such as drones, artificial intelligence and robotics, will likely enjoy wider adoption in the post-COVID-19 environment. This leaves tech better-positioned to weather the pandemic’s economic fallout and to execute on inorganic growth strategies. M&A is likely to recover faster than the US economy, with tech among the cash and capital-rich sectors leading the charge. PwC studies show that a combination of factors has been driving a decoupling of deals from the broader economy.

Business recovery timeframes have extended

Organizations are realizing the business recovery from the impacts of the virus will take longer. The March measures of manufacturing and services activities show sharp drops. Demand is not only declining, it’s shifting. Moreover, even as some US states start to reopen, difficulties in setting up testing could keep some states in a holding pattern. As a result, for CFOs, the time required to return to “business as usual” the moment that COVID-19 ends continues to lengthen. Currently, 48% believe it will take at least three months to return to normal, up from 39% two weeks ago.

Takeaways

As reality sets in and companies understand the true impacts to their operations, CFO perceptions of the length of time to business recovery has extended. According to our analysis of how companies gauge their response to the crisis in PwC’s COVID-19 Navigator diagnostic tool, the expected impact of COVID-19 on businesses globally remains high, with consumer markets and manufacturing the most susceptible among industries. Put another way, businesses that are less reliant on a large, complex supply chain to deliver products, or are able to work relatively effectively while remote, are also likely to be among the least exposed.

Consumer-facing companies reconfigure physical sites as shutdowns start to lift

Companies in consumer-facing sectors continue to contend with both sides of the demand equation, as consumers sheltering in place focus single-mindedly on essential products to the exclusion of other offerings. Consumer markets (CM) CFOs are more likely to list a decrease in consumer confidence and spending as a top-three concern than they were two weeks ago (66% vs. 50%). For CM CFOs, consumer confidence trends translate almost directly to revenues, with 32% projecting an adverse impact on revenue and/or profit of at least 25% in 2020, compared with 24% of respondents across all industries.

In response, almost three-quarters of CM CFOs (73%) are considering deferring or canceling planned investments, targeting mostly general capital expenses, such as facilities. They also say technologies that can improve their understanding of changes in customer demand are a top-three priority as they plan changes to their supply chain strategies (41% vs. 30% for all sectors).

CM CFOs are planning workplace safety measures (86% vs. 77% for all sectors) and reconfiguring work sites to promote physical distancing as part of their transition back to on-site work (77% vs. 65% for all sectors). They recognize that consumers want the assurance of a safe physical environment above all else, especially because the majority of CM products and services require a physical component, despite the continuing shift to online.

Takeaways

Consumer-facing companies continue to be among the hardest hit, as the public health crisis keeps the majority of consumers confined to their homes for now. As they grapple with immediate challenges, CM companies are pulling back on capital investments. However, most are still planning to shore up their digital presence in response to accelerated online demand that could last well beyond the recovery period.

Health system pivots to new ways of working

What’s on the mind of financial leaders in the health industry? As they plan to bring more of their workforce back on-site, they are more likely than leaders in other industries to be leaning on technology to help them manage staffing uncertainties. Fifty-four percent of healthcare CFO respondents said they plan to accelerate automation and new ways of working, compared with an average of 40% across all industries.

Healthcare organizations are simultaneously solving two critical issues: uncertainty about demand and protecting their workforce. Health organization CFOs (70%) were more likely than executives from other industries (an average of 50%) to report that they expect higher demand for employee protections in the next month. Meanwhile, consumer anxiety over their own safety is driving up uncertainty about demand for healthcare and medical products. Forty-one percent of healthcare finance leaders listed tools to better understand customer demand as a top-three priority area when considering changes to their supply chain strategies, compared to 30% of financial leaders in all sectors. Fifty-one percent of healthcare finance leaders said they are making staffing changes as a result of slowed demand.

Takeaways

A survey conducted by PwC’s Health Research Institute in early April found that some consumers are delaying care and medications amid the pandemic. In this latest PwC survey of CFOs, healthcare leaders report uncertainty about how much of their business will return as the threat of the pandemic ebbs, making staffing decisions difficult.

As the nation continues to grapple with the pandemic, getting back to work is top of mind for US financial leaders overall, but this is an especially pressing issue for health leaders. They must plan for their own workforces, while dealing with an unfolding financial calamity — 81% expect their company’s revenue and/or profits to decline this year as a result of COVID-19. On par with other industries, they expect this decline, even though their organizations play central roles in addressing the human toll of the pandemic. One strategy is to use telehealth technology to virtually care for patients, thereby protecting patients and caregivers during the pandemic.

Financial firms see fewer layoffs, but slower recovery

Financial services (FS) CFOs are bracing for a longer road back to normal. About a third (35%) now think it could take six months to get back to business as usual, up sharply from 15% just two weeks ago. They’re also more optimistic about the bottom line. More than a quarter (27%) of FS survey respondents expect revenue and/or profits to fall by 10% or less. Across all industries, only 18% felt as confident.

Takeaways

Banks are playing a critical role in helping stabilize the economy, as they work on the front lines to distribute CARES Act provisions. Along with insurers and asset managers, they also rely heavily on workers with specialized technical and institutional knowledge. This may explain why FS CFOs expect fewer layoffs (15% vs. 32% overall) or furloughs (17% vs. 44% overall) over the next month. Now, they’re trying to focus on keeping workers healthy and safe.

Conversations are starting to shift toward when and how to transition back to physical offices. For some employees, work may look very different: More FS CFOs are considering making remote work a permanent option for roles that allow it (60% vs. 49% overall). To better protect their employees, they’re also looking to evaluate new tools to support workforce tracking and contact tracing (32% vs. 22% overall) as part of the return-to-work process.

Deeper insight into health of suppliers is top priority for industrial products

The industrial products (IP) sector is in full-throttle cost-cutting mode. Nearly all IP CFOs (96%) report considering cost containment measures, compared with 87% two weeks ago. Some of this comes in the form of layoffs: 49% of IP CFOs expect layoffs to occur vs. 36% two weeks ago. The longer the crisis lasts, the longer the impact on recovery times for their business. When asked how long it would take for their business to return to business as usual if the COVID-19 crisis were to end today, 15% of IP CFOs said less than one month, down from 25% two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, they’re closely examining challenged supply chains. When asked to list their top-three priority areas when planning changes to supply-chain strategies, 66% of IP CFOs identified understanding the financial and operational health of their suppliers, compared to 54% of CFOs across all industries. A majority (56%) also cited developing additional and alternate sourcing options as a priority. And the extent of the financial damage is sinking in: 65% of IP CFOs estimate 2020 revenues and/or profits will drop at least 10%.

Takeaways

IP CFOs are signaling they’re in the thick of the crisis, as they absorb historical lows in production, with March US industrial output plunging to levels not seen since the end of WWII. Continued cost actions are still in the cards.

IP finance leaders are looking ahead to get back to business, with some already bringing workers back on-site. Some are expecting changes to the workplace. Thirty-nine percent of IP CFOs are considering making remote work a permanent option for roles that allow, and 31% are considering accelerating automation and new ways of working. While these are still early days for US producers in returning to work, bringing millions of workers back into the fold may well usher in more change management than the industry now expects.

Tech, media and telecom well-positioned to power the recovery

Technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) companies are well-positioned for recovery from the initial blow of COVID-19. As they stabilize operations in response to the crisis, the percentage of TMT CFOs anticipating revenue and/or profit declines is down 19 percentage points from two weeks ago to 65%. The data suggest that TMT companies are preparing for a future in which virtual work options gain greater acceptance over traditional office settings. TMT companies are more likely to reduce their real estate footprint as they transition back to on-site work (38% compared to 26% for all sectors), and 55% say they’re planning to make remote work permanent for positions that allow.

Of those who said they’re considering deferring or canceling planned investments, TMT companies are less likely to reduce digital transformation investments (13%) than all sectors (22%). Their increased optimism about digital investment as they strategize for the future is further borne out by the data: Two weeks ago, of those who said they were deferring or canceling planned investment, TMT was on track to reduce digital investments at the same rate as other sectors (25%).

Takeaways

The resilience of TMT companies is evident in their approach to this crisis. Bolstered by robust liquidity, the majority of companies in the sector are looking ahead to a recovery they will power by using both organic growth and M&A. In the wake of a crisis that has accelerated more widespread virtual connectivity, look for new emerging-tech-enabled business models to take shape.

Where to focus next

COVID-19 has put businesses under enormous strain to drive new ways of working. When the pandemic began, many companies put their people’s health and safety at the center of their decision-making, and they appear to be doing the same as they prepare to ramp up business. With most firms expecting to bring people back on-site in phases, leaders will need to help employees adjust to a changed environment while still managing the well-being, engagement and productivity of all workers. Purpose-led communication will continue to be critical to keep people informed, and leaders should demonstrate empathy while helping employees adjust to what will likely be an extended transition period. 

 

 

Jobless Numbers Are ‘Eye-Watering’ but Understate the Crisis

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Essential Health Benefits, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Job, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Out of Pocket Expenses, Pandemic, Preexisting Conditions, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured • Leave a comment

How the coronavirus created a U.S. unemployment crisis — in 3 graphics

With 4.4 million added last week, the five-week total passed 26 million. The struggle by states to field claims has hampered economic recovery.

Nearly a month after Washington rushed through an emergency package to aid jobless Americans, millions of laid-off workers have still not been able to apply for those benefits — let alone receive them — because of overwhelmed state unemployment systems.

Across the country, states have frantically scrambled to handle a flood of applications and apply a new set of federal rules even as more and more people line up for help. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that another 4.4 million people filed initial unemployment claims last week, bringing the five-week total to more than 26 million.

“At all levels, it’s eye-watering numbers,” Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said. Nearly one in six American workers has lost a job in recent weeks.

Delays in delivering benefits, though, are as troubling as the sheer magnitude of the figures, he said. Such problems not only create immediate hardships, but also affect the shape of the recovery when the pandemic eases.

Laid-off workers need money quickly so that they can continue to pay rent and credit card bills and buy groceries. If they can’t, Mr. Slok said, the hole that the larger economy has fallen into “gets deeper and deeper, and more difficult to crawl out of.”

Hours after the Labor Department report, the House passed a $484 billion coronavirus relief package to replenish a depleted small-business loan program and fund hospitals and testing. The Senate approved the bill earlier this week.

Even as Congress continues to provide aid, distribution has remained challenging. According to the Labor Department, only 10 states have started making payments under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which extends coverage to freelancers, self-employed workers and part-timers. Most states have not even completed the system needed to start the process.

Ohio, for example, will not start processing claims under the expanded federal eligibility criteria until May 15. Recipients whose state benefits ran out, but who can apply for extended federal benefits, will not begin to have their claims processed until May 1.

Pennsylvania opened its website for residents to file for the federal program a few days ago, but some applicants were mistakenly told that they were ineligible after filling out the forms. The state has given no timetable for when benefits might be paid.

Reports of delays, interruptions and glitches continue to come in from workers who have been unable to get into the system, from others who filed for regular state benefits but have yet to receive them, and from applicants who say they have been unfairly turned down and unable to appeal.

Florida has paid just 17 percent of the claims filed since March 15, according to the state’s Department of Economic Opportunity.

“Speed matters” when it comes to government assistance, said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. Speed can mean the difference between a company’s survival and its failure, or between making a home mortgage payment and facing foreclosure.

There is “a race between policy and a pandemic,” Mr. Tannenbaum said, and in many places, it is clear that the response has been “very uneven.”

Using data reported by the Labor Department for March 14 to April 11, the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research group, estimated that seven in 10 applicants were receiving benefits. That left seven million other jobless workers who had filed claims but were still waiting for relief.

States manage their own unemployment insurance programs and set the level of benefits and eligibility rules. Now they are responsible for administering federal emergency benefits that provide payments for an additional 13 weeks, cover previously ineligible workers and add $600 to the regular weekly check.

So far, 44 states have begun to send the $600 supplement to jobless workers who qualified under state rules, the Labor Department said. Only two — Kentucky and Minnesota — have extended federal benefits to workers who have used up their state allotment.

With government phones and websites clogged and drop-in centers closed, legal aid lawyers around the country are fielding complaints from people who say they don’t know where else to turn.

“Our office has received thousands of calls,” said John Tirpak, a lawyer with the Unemployment Law Project, a nonprofit group in Washington.

People with disabilities and nonnative English speakers have had particular problems, he said.

Even those able to file initially say they have had trouble getting back into the system as required weekly to recertify their claims.

Colin Harris of Marysville, Wash., got a letter on March 31 from the state’s unemployment insurance office saying he was eligible for benefits after being laid off as a quality inspector at Safran Cabin, an aerospace company. He submitted claims two weeks in a row and heard nothing. When he submitted his next claim, he was told that he had been disqualified. He has tried calling more than 200 times since then, with no luck.

“And that’s still where I am right now,” he said, “unable to talk to somebody to find out what the issue is.” If he had not received a $1,200 stimulus check from the federal government, he said, he would not have been able to make his mortgage payment.

Last week’s tally of new claims was lower than each of the previous three weeks. But millions of additional claims are still expected to stream in from around the country over the next month, while hiring remains piddling.

States are frantically trying to catch up. California, which has processed 2.7 million claims over the last four weeks, opened a second call center on Monday. New York, which has deployed 3,100 people to answer the telephone, said this week that it had reduced the backlog that accumulated by April 8 to 4,305 from 275,000.

Florida had the largest increase in initial claims last week, although the state figures, unlike the national total, are not seasonally adjusted. That increase could be a sign that jobless workers finally got access to the system after delays, but it is impossible to assess how many potential applicants have still failed to get in.

The 10 states that have started making Pandemic Unemployment Assistance payments to workers who would not normally qualify under state guidelines are Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

Pain is everywhere, but it is most widespread among the most vulnerable.

In a survey that the Pew Research Center released on Tuesday, 52 percent of low-income households — below $37,500 a year for a family of three — said someone in the household had lost a job because of the coronavirus, compared with 32 percent of upper-income ones (with earnings over $112,600). Forty-two percent of families in the middle have been affected as well.

Those without a college education have taken a disproportionate hit, as have Hispanics and African-Americans, the survey found.

An outsize share of jobless claims have also been filed by women, according to an analysis from the Fuller Project, a nonprofit journalism organization that focuses on women.

Josalyn Taylor, 31, learned that she was out of a job on March 16. “I clocked in at 3 o’clock, and by 3:30 my boss called me and told me we were going to shut down for three weeks,” said Ms. Taylor, an assistant manager at Cicis Pizza in Galveston, Tex. The restaurant has yet to reopen.

Two days later, she applied for unemployment insurance, but she kept receiving a message that a claim was already active for her Social Security number and that she could not file. She has tried to clear up the matter hundreds of times — online, by phone and through the Texas Workforce Commission’s site on Facebook — with no luck.

“I used my stimulus check to pay my light bill, and I’m using that to keep groceries and stuff in the house,” said Ms. Taylor, who is five months pregnant. “But other than that, I don’t have any other income, and I’m almost out of money.”

The first wave of layoffs most heavily whacked the restaurant, travel, personal care, retail and manufacturing industries, but the damage has spread to a much broader range of sectors.

At the online job site Indeed, for example, postings for software development jobs are down nearly 30 percent from last year, while listings for finance and banking openings are down more than 40 percent.

New layoffs are expected to ease over the next couple of months, but the damage to the economy is likely to last much longer. In a matter of weeks, the shutdown has more than erased 10 years of net job gains — more than 19 million jobs.

Health and education are going to revive relatively quickly, said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock, but leisure and hospitality are going to take a lot longer.

“A lot of the people who have been furloughed won’t come back,” he said. “Companies will either close or decide not to take back those workers.”

Over the past decade, the employment landscape has shifted substantially as new types of jobs have appeared and old categories have disappeared. The U.S. economy, Mr. Rieder said, is “going to go through another period of evolution.”

 

 

 

 

Tentative steps toward recovering from a deadly pandemic

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS), Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Elective Procedures, Elective Surgery, Health Policy, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Medicare, Pandemic, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Safety Net Hospitals, Safety-Net Providers, Social Distancing, The CARES Act • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/0d4b1a52108c/the-weekly-gist-april-24-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

Baby Steps – Selah Someonetotalkto's Blog

The death toll from the novel coronavirus continued to mount this week, with more than 50,000 deaths reported in the US, and over 900,000 confirmed cases nationwide. Globally, the disease has infected more than 2.7M people and killed nearly 200,000. On Tuesday, public health officials in California announced that two people who died in Santa Clara County in early February were victims of COVID-19, making them the earliest known fatalities in the US, and altering experts’ understanding of how long the disease has been spreading in the country. New modeling from researchers at Northeastern University this week suggested that the virus may have been spreading widely in several cities by early February, but went undetected because of restrictions on testing.

National attention has remained focused on the subject of testing, as states and localities scramble to secure enough testing supplies and equipment to allow them to understand community spread and identify new cases. President Trump signed an emergency $484B relief bill on Friday that will provide $25B to ramp up testing, give additional aid to businesses forced to shutter, and send hospitals $75B in additional emergency funding.

The new money for hospitals is in addition to $100B already approved by Congress for a “provider relief fund” as part of the CARES Act. Having already distributed $30B of the initial grant money to hospitals, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) was expected to pay out an additional $20B today, this time according to a formula based on the net patient revenue of each hospital, rather than the earlier approach based on Medicare billings. The shift is expected to address concerns among children’s hospitals, safety-net providers, and others who were disadvantaged by the Medicare-based approach. It is unclear how the newly approved $75B of additional funding will be allocated.

Meanwhile, states began to plan for the reopening of their economies, with most governors taking a measured approach in coordination with neighboring states. A handful of states moved to loosen stay-at-home restrictions in advance of meeting the Trump administration’s “gating” criteria, including Florida, which reopened some beaches for recreational use, Oklahoma, and Georgia, which controversially allowed gyms, bowling alleys, hair and nail salons, and tattoo parlors to reopen on Friday.

Many states began to put in place plans to restart elective surgeries, which had been curtailed by a patchwork of differing state and local directives. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released guidelines this week to help local officials decide when and how to restart surgeries. Whether for healthcare services or other types of economic activity, states will (and should) be guided by the ability to conduct widespread testing, robust contact tracing, and isolation of those infected with the virus. Ensuring that ability will likely make the next phase of the pandemic a protracted and frustrating “dance” of fits and starts, likely to last into the summer months and beyond.

 

 

 

Cartoon – State of the Union

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Cartoon, Communication, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Emergency Preparedness, False Hope, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Leadership Culture, Leadership Decentralized, Mislead, Misleading, Mortality, Pandemic, Partisanship, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing, State of the Union • Leave a comment

iroon.com: Cartoons

 

Cartoon – Coronavirus Prevention Today

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Partisanship, Public Health, Public Safety, Scientists, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

College Signals Concern over Coronavirus Outbreak Cooks Adresses ...

70% Of Americans Want Officials To Prioritize Public Health Over Restarting Economy

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Partisanship, Public Health, Public Safety, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/04/23/70-of-americans-want-officials-to-prioritize-public-health-over-restarting-economy-trump-kemp/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news&utm_campaign=news&cdlcid=#74a9d5ce68d3

The ICU nurse who stood masked and silent at the rally to open Arizona

A wide majority of Americans are not ready to resume public life, according to a poll released Thursday by CBS News and YouGov, as governors in Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina plan to allow stay-at-home orders to expire next week.

KEY FACTS

Only 30% of people surveyed said the government’s priority should be restarting the economy; 70% said the focus should be on slowing the virus through social distancing measures.

The polling shows a partisan divide—while 91% of Democrats and 69% of Independents favor focusing on public health, 52% of Republicans say the economy should take precedence.

29% of those polled said they would feel comfortable eating at a restaurant; Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will allow certain businesses, including restaurants, to open on April 27, 2020.

A minority of respondents said they would be comfortable going to work right now (44%) and even fewer said they would attend a large entertainment or sports event (13%), but the social isolation is taking its toll—54% said they would be willing to visit their friends.

KEY BACKGROUND

Protests against stay-at-home orders have cropped up around the country in states like California and Michigan, initially with President Donald Trump’s support. Although the movement is vocal, its support is limited. Less than a quarter of the poll’s respondents said they support the protests, and only 7% think that Trump should encourage them. The president is starting to change his tune, criticizing Georgia Governor Kemp’s plan to reopen businesses at the White House briefing on Wednesday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he is coordinating with neighboring governors on how to proceed, but has not yet announced whether he will extend the state’s stay-at-home order or let it expire. Florida has had more than 28,000 cases of COVID-19, more than any other southern state. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows that Florida residents’ opinions on reopening the economy reflect those of the country: Only 22% said that the state should loosen social distancing rules at the end of the month. As a first step, DeSantis allowed localities to reopen their beaches last week, and some, notably those in Jacksonville, were crowded.

 

 

Governor Cuomo, Bloomberg Announce Unprecedented New York COVID-19 Coronavirus Contact Tracing Program

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing, Vaccination, Vaccine • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-bloomberg-announce-unprecedented-new-york-covid-19-coronavirus-contact-tracing-program/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=career&cid=5d2c97df953109375e4d8b68#129e09243cd1

Coronavirus: Why are there doubts over contact-tracing apps? - BBC ...

New York is not going to let the COVID-19 coronavirus spread without a trace. Make that multiple traces. In fact, make that many, many, many traces.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg announced the launch of a massive contact tracing program in an effort to better contain the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). How massive? How about larger-than-any-contact-tracing-effort-that’s-been-attempted-before-in-the-U.S. massive?

It is a sign of the times that Cuomo had to include a slide that said: “But we can’t be stupid.” After all, there are other people out there pushing to re-open businesses without at the same time providing a specific plan on how exactly to stop the virus when social distancing measures are relaxed.

Bloomberg Philanthropies, which was founded by Bloomberg, will contribute $10.5 million as well as technical support and assistance to the program. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health will develop an online training program and certification process for those doing the contact tracing. Vital Strategies, via its Resolve to Save Lives initiative, will advise and assist the New York State Health Department staff in developing protocols and processes to help the whole contact tracing process.

Speaking of vital strategies, “test-trace-isolate” is quite a vital strategy to try to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus so that social distancing measures can be relaxed and things can re-open, at least to some degree. Contact tracing is the “trace” part of that strategy. I’ve described previously for Forbes how to do contact tracing. When you’ve identified a person (an index case) infected with the SARS-Cov2 via testing, contact tracing is determining and locating every person that index case may have had contact with that was close enough to transmit the virus. This way you can isolate or quarantine all of those contacts as quickly as possible so that they can’t spread the virus any further. Essentially testing, tracing, and isolating or quarantining aims to contain the virus, to box it in, to give it no people to spread to, to surround it by nothing but toilet paper, fluffy pillows, Netflix videos, and whatever else people have in their houses and apartments.

Without a vaccine or specific treatment versus the SARS-Cov2, the virus could have spread much more widely without social distancing measures in place, because supplements, gargling salt water, Medieval chants or whatever bogus prevention measures have been offered weren’t going to stop the virus. Premature re-opening could send all of those efforts down the metaphorical toilet bowl. “While we start our work to re-open our economy we must ensure we are doing it in a way that does no harm and does not undo all of the work and sacrifice it has taken to get here,” said Cuomo in statement. “One of the most critical pieces of getting to a new normal is to ramp up testing, but states have a second big task – to put together an army of people to trace each person who tested positive, find out who they contacted and then isolate those people.”

Think about it. If you re-open places and relax social distancing measures, it could take only a small number of people spreading the virus to then cause another surge in COVID-19 cases. Therefore, a good contact tracing program needs to be in place to catch potentially infectious people quickly. Implementing large scale and coordinated contact tracing programs has been one way that Germany, Singapore and South Korea have been able to better control the COVID-19 coronavirus and its impact than the U.S. and U.K. have.

“We’re all eager to begin loosening restrictions on our daily lives and our economy,” said Bloomberg in a statement. “But in order to do that as safely as possible, we first have to put in place systems to identify people who may have been exposed to the virus and support them as they isolate.”

Putting appropriate systems in place before making a decision? Hear that sound? It’s the sound of science walking back into the ongoing “re-open America” conversation and saying, “what the heck have you been doing to the house while I’ve been away.” Deciding to re-open anything without first putting proper systems in place to monitor and contain the virus would be like going to a dinner party when you aren’t wearing any clothes. It would leave you quite exposed and basically put your butt on the line.

Although the program is launching immediately, it will take some time to recruit and train hundreds or perhaps thousands of tracers. Potential recruits will come from a variety of places such as the State Department of Health, various state agencies, the State University of New York (SUNY), and the City University of New York (CUNY). Henning indicated that the timeline for getting things in place will be in the order of “a number of weeks.”

This program will coordinate with contact tracing efforts in New Jersey and Connecticut. After all, this virus doesn’t respect borders or need an E-ZPass to spread to neighboring states. As Henning noted, “New York state has already been talking extensively with New Jersey and other states.”

If you live outside this tri-state area, try to pay attention to what’s going on here. After all, contact tracing will have to occur in other parts of the country as well. Otherwise, the virus can keep circulating in different parts of the country, which means that it could at any time readily spread to the rest of the U.S. After all, the virus is like a very bad house guest. It doesn’t respect boundaries. And it is unlikely to just disappear without a trace.