Category Archives: Employee Pay Cuts

Jay Powell warns US recovery could take until end of 2021

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Fed Makes Second Emergency Rate Cut to Zero Due To Coronavirus ...

Fed chair says economy may not fully bounce back until virus vaccine is available.

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has warned that a full US economic recovery may take until the end of next year and require the development of a Covid-19 vaccine.

“For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident. And that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine,” Mr Powell told CBS News on Sunday. A full revival would happen, he said, but “it may take a while . . . it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don’t know”.

He added: “Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year.”

Mr Powell told CBS it was likely there would be a “couple more months” of net job losses, with the unemployment rate climbing to as high as 20-25 per cent. But he said it was “good news” that the “overwhelming” majority of those claiming unemployment benefits report themselves as having been laid off temporarily, meaning they are expecting to go back to their old jobs.

Oil prices and stocks in Asia rose on Monday despite the gloomy outlook. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, climbed 4.4 per cent to take it above $30 a barrel for the first time in two months. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 3.6 per cent to $33.67 a barrel. Japan’s Topix was up 0.4 per cent and China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks added 0.6 per cent.

Donald Trump, US president, said last week that he hoped to have a vaccine ready by the end of 2020. But public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Rick Bright, the recently ousted head of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, have warned that the process is likely to take longer.

Dr Fauci, a high-profile member of Mr Trump’s coronavirus task force, has said he expects the search for a vaccine to take at least a year to 18 months. But Dr Bright has said that was too optimistic.

Some world leaders have also raised doubts about the immediate prospects for a vaccine. Giuseppe Conte, prime minister of Italy, said at the weekend that his country could “not afford” to wait for a vaccine, while Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, warned that a vaccine “might not come to fruition” at all.

Mr Powell said that while lawmakers had “done a great deal and done it very quickly”, Congress and the Fed may need to do more “to avoid longer-run damage to the economy”.

The Fed chair said fiscal policies that “help businesses avoid avoidable insolvencies and that do the same for individuals” would position the US economy for a strong recovery post-crisis.

Mr Powell also reiterated his position against using negative interest rates, something Mr Trump has called for. The Fed chair told CBS that the Federal Open Market Committee had eschewed negative interest rates after the last financial crisis in favour of “other tools” such as forward guidance and quantitative easing.

The US Congress has already approved nearly $3tn of economic relief measures intended to support struggling businesses and individuals, but there is growing consensus in Washington that more fiscal stimulus will be needed — even if Democrats and Republicans are divided over how to dole out federal funds.

Late on Friday, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives passed Nancy Pelosi’s plan for $3tn in new stimulus spending.

Mr Trump has repeatedly called for the next stimulus to include a cut to payroll taxes — deductions for entitlements such as social security and Medicare. Last week, Larry Kudlow, the top White House economic adviser, suggested that lower corporate taxes and looser business regulation should be part of any future relief package.

The Trump administration has taken a more bullish stance on the US economic recovery than Mr Powell, with White House officials repeatedly insisting that the economy will bounce back before the end of the year.

Mr Powell told CBS it was a “reasonable expectation that there will be growth in the second half of the year” but “we won’t get back to where we were by the end of the year”.

 

 

 

 

 

Fed’s Powell warns unemployment could reach Depression-level 25 percent

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/powell-unemployment-depression-25-percent-264500

Fed's Powell warns unemployment could reach Depression-level 25 ...

The Fed chief expressed hope that the economy would come out of recession in the second half of the year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Sunday warned that the nation’s unemployment rate could soar to 25 percent during the worst of the coronavirus crisis, though he said the economy should recover more quickly than during the Great Depression, when joblessness last reached those levels.

“Those numbers sound about right for what the peak may be,” Powell said on CBS’ “60 Minutes” after reporter Scott Pelley asked whether unemployment could reach 20 percent or even 25 percent.

His remarks came just days after the central bank released a survey showing that one in five American workers lost their jobs in March — including almost 40 percent of those in lower-income households.

The Fed chief expressed hope that the economy would come out of recession in the second half of the year, but cautioned that a second outbreak of the coronavirus could derail that path.

“This economy will recover,” he said. “We’ll get through this. It may take a while. … It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don’t know.”

The central bank has taken extraordinary measures to rescue the economy since the pandemic began sweeping through the country — slashing interest rates to zero, rolling out trillions of dollars in lending programs for financial markets, and taking the unprecedented step of bailing out state and city governments.

“There’s really no limit to what we can do with these lending programs,” Powell said. “There’s a lot more we can do to support the economy, and we’re committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to.”

He said the economy stands a good chance of bouncing back more quickly than in the 1930s.

“When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed,” Powell said. “Here, our financial system is strong.”

But he took the opportunity to again warn that Congress will need to spend more to prevent long-lasting damage, even after U.S. lawmakers have shelled out trillions of dollars for American businesses and consumers.

The most important policy objectives should be to “keep workers in their homes, keep them paying their bills,” he said. “Keep families solvent so that when this comes, we come out the other end of this, we’re in a position to have a strong recovery.”

 

 

 

 

Cartoon – 100% Tax Cut Today

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Recruiting. Talent Management | HENRY KOTULA

If the White House is struggling, how will ordinary businesses fare? 

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Emergency Preparedness, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Job, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing • 1 Comment

https://mailchi.mp/f4f55b3dcfb3/the-weekly-gist-may-15-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

The RAOI Advisory Opinion: A Transformative Moment or a Bump in ...

In a week that saw reopening activity pick up across the country, drawing even more attention to the need for sufficient testing to give employers and workers confidence in returning to work, a new study from researchers at New York University (NYU) suggested that a widely-hailed rapid testing machine from Abbott Labs may be unreliable.

The Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 test produced false negatives a third of the time using nasopharyngeal swabs, and 48 percent of the time with less-invasive “dry nasal swabs”, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review. The five-minute, point-of-care test received emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in late March and has been touted as a “great test” by President Trump, whose White House relies on it to test the President and those around him.

On Thursday, the FDA issued a warning about the potential for false negative results using the Abbott test. The company disputes the findings and sent a list of questions to the NYU researchers for clarification. Meanwhile, two White House staffers—an aide to the President and the Vice President’s press secretary—tested positive for coronavirus, causing the White House to mandate masks for all employees starting this week.

The uncertainty around test results, and the ensuing concern about safety at the White House, provides a foretaste of the difficult road ahead for thousands of employers nationwide as stay-at-home orders are lifted, and companies consider when and how to reopen workplaces.

If the White House is struggling, how will ordinary businesses fare?

US coronavirus update: 1.46M cases, 87K+ confirmed deaths, 10.2M total tests conducted.

 

 

 

 

Quantifying the massive blow to hospital volumes

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Cash, Cash Reserves, Cash-Flow Improvements, Coronavirus, Credit Quality, Credit Ratings, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Economy Reopening, Elective Procedures, Elective Surgery, Emergency Preparedness, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Essential Health Benefits, Financially Distressed, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, High Deductible Health Plans, High Drug Prices, High Premiums, High Prices, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Out of Pocket Expenses, Pandemic, Preexisting Conditions, Surprise Bills, Uncompensated Care, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/f4f55b3dcfb3/the-weekly-gist-may-15-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

Even after hearing dozens of reports from health systems about how steep their COVID-related volume losses have been, we were still floored by this analysis from healthcare analytics firm Strata Decision Technology, documenting a 55 percent drop in patients seeking hospital care across the country.

The report, which analyzed data from 228 hospitals in 51 health systems across 40 states, found that no clinical service line was immune from steep volume losses. The graphic below shows volume loss by service line in March-April 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, ophthalmology, gynecology, ortho/spine and ENT—all specialties with a high portion of elective cases, and heavily dependent on procedures—saw volume declines of greater than 70 percent. But even obstetrics and neonatology (which we expected to be “pandemic proof”) and infectious disease (which we thought might be busier in the throes of COVID-19) saw losses of 20-30 percent.

Looking at specific procedures, complex elective surgeries like spinal fusion and hip and knee replacements were almost completely obliterated. Precipitous declines in encounters for chronic diseases like coronary heart disease and diabetes (down 75 and 67 percent, respectively) and cancer screenings (a 55 percent decline in breast health and a 37 percent decline in cancer care overall) point to the likelihood of worrisome disease exacerbations, and a future full of more complex patients.

The volume losses, plus a 114 percent rise in uninsured patients, led to average two-week losses of $26.5M per health system across the study’s cohort. Strata will continue to track and publish volume changes, but this early snapshot paints a bleak picture of staggering financial hits, and “lost” patient care that will carry lasting ramifications for the health of communities nationwide.

 

 

 

 

Putting a pillar of the community in jeopardy

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Cash, Cash Reserves, Community, Community Hospital, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy, Economy Reopening, Elective Procedures, Elective Surgery, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Financially Distressed, Health Policy, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Leadership, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://mailchi.mp/f4f55b3dcfb3/the-weekly-gist-may-15-2020?e=d1e747d2d8

Pillars of the Community - New York Improv Teams

It’s easy to become numb to the numbers we’re bombarded with on a daily basis—case counts, deaths, financial losses, unemployment claims, bailout funding. An article from the Washington Post this week put a very human face on how the coronavirus crisis is playing out on the ground, profiling the experience of 115-bed Griffin Hospital in Derby, CT.

We first got to know Griffin, and its CEO Patrick Charmel, years ago in the course of work for our former employer. It’s a remarkable, fiercely independent organization—recognized as the flagship hospital of the “Planetree” patient-centered care model, and a decade-long fixture on Fortune’s list of Top 100 Best Companies to Work For. But the COVID-19 wave hit Griffin hard, as it did much of Connecticut.

With the high cost of caring for COVID patients, and lost revenue from cancelled procedures, Griffin has had to make hard decisions about furloughing and redeploying staff—incredibly difficult for a small facility that has been a pillar of the community for a century. Charmel has been able to secure some relief in the form of advance payment from Medicare, but his efforts to lobby for a share of the state’s allocation of CARES Act grant funding for hospitals proved unsuccessful, and so the future of the hospital—or at least its continued viability as an independent organization—is in jeopardy.

In the words of Griffin’s chief financial officer, “This could be devastating for us.” As the recovery begins, and questions begin to be asked about the billions of dollars of “bailouts” paid to “greedy hospitals”—an easy narrative for the media to latch onto—it’s worth remembering what’s happening to Griffin Hospital, and to hundreds of other similar organizations across the country.

Countless communities rely on these hospitals, and their survival is worth safeguarding.

 

 

 

Seven weeks into coronavirus lockdowns, Fed has a new, darker message

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/seven-weeks-coronavirus-lockdowns-fed-182614531.html

Seven weeks into coronavirus lockdowns, Fed has a new, darker ...

One Thursday morning seven weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a rare appearance on NBC’s “Today Show” to offer a reassuring message to Americans dealing with economic fallout from measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

There is “nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” Powell told viewers, while pointing out the U.S. central bank’s outsized ability to take on lending risk and provide a financial “bridge” over the temporary economic weakness the country was experiencing.

Speaking after the Fed cut interest rates to near zero and rolled out a plan to backstop credit for small- and mid-sized companies, Powell emphasized the first order of business was to get the virus under control.

“The sooner we get through this period and get the virus under control, the sooner the recovery can come,” said Powell, echoing remarks made the day before by Anthony Fauci, a top U.S. health official helping to coordinate the federal government’s response to the coronavirus crisis.

At the time, Powell said he expected economic activity would resume in the second half of the year, and maybe even enjoy a “good rebound.”

But on Wednesday, he offered a much more sober outlook.

In an interview webcast by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Powell warned of an “extended period” of weak economic growth, tied to uncertainty about how well the virus could be controlled in the United States. “There is a sense, growing sense I think, that the recovery may come more slowly than we would like,” he said.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was similarly somber when he told lawmakers earlier this week that the country was by no means in “total control” of the outbreak.

“There is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control and, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to try to get economic recovery,” Fauci said.

The pandemic has killed more than 83,000 people in the United States so far, and many epidemiological models now point to a death toll that will surpass 100,000 in a matter of weeks.

Overall new cases of the virus continue to climb as well, as states end lockdowns and reopen local economies without the widespread, uniform testing and contact tracing policies that helped stamp out initial outbreaks in South Korea and Germany.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Powell’s remarks on Wednesday mirrored warnings this week from a clutch of regional Fed presidents who outlined the country’s uncertain future.

U.S. central bank officials, and especially the Fed chief, historically choose their words carefully, to avoid alarming or exciting investors or causing swings in financial markets, making their universally dour outlook more remarkable.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the situation could lead to a new Great Depression, with millions of so-far temporary job losses becoming permanent, and businesses failing “on a grand scale.”

“We have to get better at this and get more risk-based with our health policy,” Bullard said.

The U.S. economy can return to growth in the second half of the year, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday, with more testing and contact tracing. If that happens, she said, “as some of the stay-at-home restrictions are lifted, the economy will begin to grow again in the second half of this year and unemployment will begin to move down.”

However, a more pessimistic scenario, in which a surge in infections requires businesses to shut down again or the crisis leads to more bankruptcies or instability in the banking sector, is “almost as likely,” she said.

 

 

 

 

The pandemic broke America

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Recovery, Economic Stimulus, Economy Reopening, Emergency Preparedness, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Essential Businesses, Essential Health Benefits, Essential Workers, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, National Strategy, Out of Pocket Expenses, Pandemic, Partisanship, Preexisting Conditions, Public Health, Public Safety, Social Distancing, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured • Leave a comment

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-america-broken-2baa69e4-60e6-49a5-932a-5d118441ae20.html

The coronavirus pandemic broke America - Axios

Eight weeks into this nation’s greatest crisis since World War II, we seem no closer to a national strategy to reopen the nation, rebuild the economy and defeat the coronavirus.

Why it matters: America’s ongoing cultural wars over everything have weakened our ability to respond to this pandemic. We may be our worst enemy.

  • The response is being hobbled by the same trends that have impacted so much of our lives: growing income inequality, the rise of misinformation, lack of trust in institutions, the rural/urban divide and hyper-partisanship.
  • We’re not even seeing the same threat from the virus. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to be worried about getting seriously ill, while Republicans — including the president — are more likely to think the death counts are too high.

Without even a basic agreement on the danger of the pandemic and its toll, here’s how we see the national response unfold:

  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the crown jewel of the globe’s public health infrastructure, has been sidelined, its recommendations dismissed by the White House.
  • President Trump declares the U.S. has “prevailed on testing” at a time when health experts say we still need far more daily tests before the country can reopen safely.
  • Distribution of the promising coronavirus drug remdesivir was initially botched because of miscommunication between government agencies.
  • More than two thirds of Americans say it’s unlikely they would use a cell phone-based contact tracing program established by the federal government, a key component of a testing regime to control the virus.
  • The second phase of a program to aid small businesses isn’t fully allocated because firms are either concerned about its changing rules, confused about how to access it, or find the structure won’t help them stay in business.
  • With the unemployment rate at a post-Depression record last month, and expected to go higher, there is no meaningful discussion between the parties in Congress on aid to the out-of-work.
  • States and local governments are facing billions in losses without a strategy for assistance.
  • The virus is literally inside the White House. Aides have tested positive for coronavirus, leading to quarantines for some of the nation’s top public health officials and a new daily testing regime for White House staff and reporters who enter the West Wing.
  • The No. 1 book on Amazon for a time was a book by an anti-vaxxer whose conspiracy-minded video about the pandemic spread widely across social media, leading to takedowns by platforms like YouTube and Facebook.

The other side: There’s better news at the state level. “Governors collectively have been winning widespread praise from the public for their handling of the coronavirus outbreak,” the Washington Post reports.

Between the lines: Nationwide, 71% of Americans approve of the job their governor is doing, according to the Post. For Trump, the figure is 43%.

  • And former presidents we often expect to help rally the nation in trying times are scarce.
  • George W. Bush released a video, in which his face barely appeared, calling for unity in the fight against the virus. Barack Obama was recorded in leaked remarks to former staffers calling Trump’s coronavirus response “an absolute chaotic disaster.” Trump attacked both of them on Twitter.

The bottom line: An existential threat — like war or natural disaster — usually brings people together to set a course of action in response. Somehow, we’ve let this one drive us apart.

 

 

 

 

Another 3 million Americans filed for unemployment last week

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https://www.axios.com/jobless-claims-coronavirus-3-million-460364c8-be73-437c-b99c-fa7d75aad87e.html?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Another 2.98 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Why it matters: The coronavirus is still forcing a historically high number of Americans out of work. In two months alone, more than 36 million people have filed jobless claims.

Between the lines: The pace of new applications has slowed from its peak in March, but the weekly numbers are still way higher than before businesses shuttered to contain the outbreak.

  • There are more jobless workers that haven’t been able to get their application through. State unemployment offices are racing to get through an avalanche of unemployment filings — with states like New York processing more claims in the past few months than they have in years.
  • Measuring the backlog is “like trying to measure the ocean, it’s constantly moving,” New York Labor Department commissioner Roberta Reardon said in a press call yesterday.
  • While more Americans than ever before are eligible for unemployment, including gig workers, some states are just beginning to scale up to accept those applications.

By the numbers: The total number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits — after initially applying — rose, bringing the total to a record 22.8 million.

  • A decrease in this figure would be an indication that Americans are returning back to work.

The bottom line: Goldman Sachs estimates the unemployment rate will hit 25%, matching the peak level of joblessness during the Great Depression.

 

Window of Opportunity is Closing for Coronavirus Response

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, ACA, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS), Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Economy Reopening, Emergency Preparedness, Employee Benefits, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employee Protections, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Essential Health Benefits, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, Health Policy, Hydroxychloroquine, Infection Control, Infectious Virus, Job, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Leadership Decentralized, Medicaid, Medicaid Expansion, Mortality, Out of Pocket Expenses, Pandemic, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Preexisting Conditions, Public Health, Public Safety, Quarantine, Social Distancing, Strategy National, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured, Ventilators • Leave a comment

https://www.axios.com/rick-bright-testimony-opening-statement-6817ae7a-5196-4357-b83c-d3ff96990efd.html?stream=health-care&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_healthcare

Window of opportunity – definition and meaning – Market Business News

A top vaccine doctor who was ousted from his position in April is expected to testify Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus, and that the U.S. could face the “darkest winter in modern history” if it doesn’t develop a national coordinated response, according to prepared testimony first obtained by CNN.

The big picture: Rick Bright, the former head of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), will tell Congress that leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services ignored his warnings in January, February and March about a potential shortage of medical supplies.

  • He will testify that HHS “missed early warning signals” and “forgot important pages from our pandemic playbook” early on — but that “for now, we need to focus on getting things right going forward.”
  • Bright’s testimony also reiterates claims from a whistleblower report he filed last week that alleges he was ousted over his attempts to limit the use of hydroxychloroquine — an unproven drug touted by President Trump — to treat the coronavirus.

What he’s saying: Bright will testify he urged HHS to ramp up production of
masks, respirators and medical supplies as far back as January. Those warnings were dismissed, Bright says, and he was “cut out of key high-level meetings to combat COVID-19.”

  • “I continue to believe that we must act urgently to effectively combat this deadly disease. Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities.”

Bright will call for a national strategy to combat the virus, including “tests that are accurate, rapid, easy to use, low cost, and available to everyone who needs them.”

  • “Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.”

Read Bright’s prepared statement.