For a Wall Street Lifeline, UnitedHealth Is Throwing Brokers Overboard

In a concession to Wall Street investors, starting this summer, UnitedHealth will stop paying commissions to agents and brokers for some new enrollees in nearly 200 UnitedHealthcare Medicare Advantage plans across 39 markets.

And it’s happening not because UnitedHealth can’t afford to pay. As we’ve published previously, the company reported $9.1 billion in profits during the first quarter of 2025 — up from $7.9 billion the year before. But that wasn’t enough to satisfy Wall Street, which punished UnitedHealth with the steepest one-day stock drop in 26 years — a $110 billion free fall in market value — after the company revised its full-year profit guidance downward.

Why the drop? 

Because UnitedHealth admitted it may not squeeze quite as much profit from taxpayers this year as expected — mainly due to unexpectedly high care utilization from some of the new Medicare Advantage enrollees it brought on during the last open enrollment period. Particularly enrollees who, as then-CEO Andrew Witty described, came from other insurers exiting the market and hadn’t been properly coded. Yawn.

For Now, Brokers Are UNH’s Patsy

This recent commission cut is less about operational efficiency and more about damage control. UnitedHealth is signaling to investors that it’s willing to shrink its Medicare Advantage footprint — at least temporarily — if that helps preserve profit margins. And Wall Street analysts are eating it up, seeing it as a way to slow the flow of high-cost members and stabilize earnings, according to BarChart.

Off Wall Street, the move has already come under fire. As the National Association of Benefits and Insurance Professionals put it, UnitedHealth is “cutting off the very people best equipped to help” seniors — especially low-income and rural enrollees who depend on brokers to explain their options.

While we would warn seniors against enrolling in a Medicare Advantage plan in the first place – without brokers, many beneficiaries will be left to fend for themselves in a system that’s already infamously confusing, expensive and deadly.

A Strategic Retreat Disguised as a Cost-Containment Strategy

The problem is the perverse incentive structure UnitedHealth and other insurers helped build — one that rewards risk-coding gamesmanship more than it rewards delivering care. For years, the company thrived by maximizing revenue through “coding intensity” and by acquiring everything from doctors’ offices to behavioral health firms to control more of the health care ecosystem.

Now, UnitedHealth is responding the way Wall Street expects: by slashing anything that isn’t bolted down – including brokers.

So here we are: 

UnitedHealth is still wildly profitable, still drawing billions from taxpayer-funded programs like Medicare and Medicaid — and now it’s cutting out the professionals who presumably help seniors navigate a convoluted health care system. All this, mind you, to appease jittery investors. And despite UnitedHealth’s current wobbly share price, analysts expect it to rebound, especially with a continuation of share buybacks on the horizon.

During the first quarter of this year alone, the company bought back $3 billion worth of its own shares. Over the past year, buybacks totaled more than $12 billion. When you factor in dividends, the company said it “returned” more than $16 billion to shareholders in 2024. That’s how you keep investors at least partially satisfied.

The GOP Still Lacks a Clear Plan for Health Care

he House GOP’s emerging megabill includes significant changes to health care, some of which are long overdue, such as tighter restrictions on the provider taxes which states use to shift Medicaid costs onto the federal budget. But the legislation’s effect on the number of uninsured individuals is likely to get the most attention. Projections showing there will be a sizeable increase are causing internal divisions and creating political risks.

The basic problem for the party remains as it was in 2017 during the failed attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which is that there is no agreement among its leaders on an overall direction to guide the changes they advance. It is probably too late to develop such a plan for this year’s legislative debate, but it remains necessary if GOP officeholders ever want to have more lasting influence on the workings of the overall system.

The Democratic party has long rallied around an organizing principle for the changes it seeks. The ultimate goal is a universal public utility model with everyone covered. There are differences among leading party members over the specific routes to this destination but not on the direction of travel. The party wants to strongly regulate the entire sector, including insurance and the providers of services, and most especially with respect to the prices they charge. The suppliers would be entirely dependent on government-set rates for their revenue. In return, they would get paid just enough to stay open and face less pressure to compete based on efficiency. A single-payer plan is consistent with the party’s goals, but so too would be an extension of Medicare’s fees to the commercial market.

Republicans have nothing similar to rally around. In the megabill, the goal is to slow the growth of public subsidization of insurance enrollment and promote work, with the savings devoted to a lower level of taxation. It is a fiscal exercise and not a plan to reform American health care.

It also leaves the party exposed to criticism. If the federal government pulls back support without bringing down total costs, then someone else has to pay for the care provided to patients, or else some care might have to be curtailed. Predictably, as analyses emerge showing the GOP bill will produce these effects, the political blowback has been building.

The alternative to a public utility model is a system that is disciplined by market incentives instead of regulations but which still embraces population-wide insurance enrollment. The megabill includes important improvements to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) that point in this direction, but they are too marginal to substantially alter incentives in the entire sector.

Republicans should consider what can be done to bring down costs across-the-board so that all purchasers get financial relief. There are several targets available.

  • Stronger Price Competition.
  • The first Trump administration pushed for transparent pricing in health care, which was an important step. However, for the market to work, consumers need to be far more engaged and incentivized to opt for lower-priced options. To promote stronger competition, the federal government should require providers of high-volume services to disclose their prices based on standardized bundles, and then also require insurers to let consumers migrate to lower-priced suppliers and keep the savings.
  • Competitive Bidding.
  • In Medicare and Medicaid, there is too much reliance on regulated rates and not enough on competitive bidding. Both programs should use bidding to establish the rates that the government will pay for services whenever that is a possibility. For instance, Medicare could require competitive bidding for high-volume services such as laboratory testing and imaging, and then use the submitted prices to build a preferred network of providers. Further, competitive bidding should be used to set rates for Medicare Advantage plans and, in time, to establish a level playing field of competition with the traditional program. Some of the savings from these reforms could be used to provide catastrophic insurance protection as a feature of the entire program, and not just in MA.
  • More Enrollment in Job-Based Insurance.
  • Republicans should drop their ambivalence toward insurance enrollment. The balance of the empirical evidence backs the importance of staying in coverage to a person’s health status. Moreover, the public does not want large numbers of uninsured again. To lessen the burden on Medicaid and to promote work, Republicans should look to help low-wage workers secure employer-sponsored insurance (ESI). Redirecting a portion of the tax subsidy for this insurance from high-wage to low-wage workers could induce some individuals out of Medicaid and Affordable Care Act plans and into ESI.

The GOP is right that surging costs for Medicare and Medicaid are a fiscal threat, but if their solutions push more financial risk onto individual consumers and patients, the backlash might hasten changes that Democrats have long sought.

Medicare Advantage Is Ripe for an Overhaul 

As the Senate eyes alternative or additional cost-saving provisions to those included in the House-passed reconciliation bill, some Republicans are considering reforms to Medicare. That is a promising development because overhauling Medicare Advantage could lower federal costs in ways that even many Democrats have advocated (although it is certain the overall bill will receive no Democratic support due to myriad other provisions).

Medicare Advantage, or MA, is Medicare’s private insurance option.

Beneficiaries can get their coverage through these plans in lieu of the traditional, government-managed program. Medicare pays MA sponsors a per-person monthly fee, which they use in turn to pay providers for the services their enrollees need. Enrollment in MA surged after Congress amended the payment formula in 2003. According to the 2024 Medicare trustees report, in the last decade alone, MA enrollment increased from 16 million people in 2014, or 30 percent of total enrollment, to 34 million people in 2024, or one out of every two program beneficiaries.

MA is growing because the plans usually offer more generous coverage than the traditional program without charging substantially higher premiums. In fact, many MA enrollees get free prescription drug coverage and much lower cost-sharing for hospital and physician services. They also sometimes get limited dental and vision care protection. MA enrollees usually do not pay for Medigap insurance, which can be expensive.

Critics argue MA plans can offer added benefits only because they are overpaid – a contention credible research confirms, including as conducted by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC). At the same time, other data shows MA plans are often more efficient at delivering services than the traditional program because the plans scrutinize claims more carefully. High MA enrollment is also associated with positive spillover effects in the traditional program.

MA reforms should incentivize efficiency and high-quality care without needlessly overpaying the plans. The Senate should pull together a reform plan that gradually restructures the MA market so that it operates more efficiently and with lower costs for taxpayers. The following general principles should guide what is developed.

  • Competitive Bidding.
  • MA plans submit bids under the current formula, but Medicare’s payment is a combination of those bids and benchmarks that are set administratively. The Senate should amend the formula to rely strictly on bidding, with a transition to prevent abrupt changes in what is offered to enrollees. The payment could be based on the average bid weighted by enrollment. The new system could be phased in over five years by gradually increasing its influence on the formula (20 percent in year one, going up to 100 percent in year five, for instance).
  • Standardized Benefits.
  • Competitive bidding should be combined with standardization of the coverage MA plans are offering. Without such rules, it is difficult for individual beneficiaries to compare their options on an apples-to-apples basis. The Senate should require CMS to develop a standard MA offering that is comparable in value to the traditional benefit (it may be necessary to add catastrophic protection to the traditional program to ensure the competition is fair). MA plans would then submit their bids based on this standardized offering, and all Medicare beneficiaries would have the option of opting for such coverage. Further, the Senate should direct CMS to develop a small number of standardized supplemental benefits that could be purchased by beneficiaries with additional premium payments. These offerings could focus on the most popular add-ons in the MA market.
  • Risk Adjustment.
  • There are many criticisms of the current system of providing payment adjustments to MA plans based on the varied health risks of their enrollees. The current system has several flaws that might be addressed, but the basic problem is too much reliance on the data submitted by the plans which can lead directly to higher revenue. That design of course invites abuse. The Senate should put into law a requirement that CMA is to determine a final annual risk score for the plans based on submitted information, and any needed refinements by the government to ensure the fairest possible comparisons across plans.
  • ACOs as MA Plans. 
  • The Medicare program would benefit from robust provider-driven MA plans that can effectively compete with the insurer-led MA offerings now dominating the market. CMS should work with interested Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) on building out functions they would need to become viable alternatives in the MA insurance market.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the House bill will increase deficits by $3.0 trillion over ten years when net interest is in the calculation. Medicare reforms could help the Senate produce a more fiscally responsible bill. If an MA bidding system led to a reduction in payments comparable to a 10 percent cut (which is realistic based on MedPAC’s research), the savings over a decade would be close to $500 billion.

Hospital purchasing still buffeted by trade winds

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/18/hospital-purchasing-tariffs-trump-ppe

Tariffs and supply chain uncertainty are playing havoc with hospitals’ purchasing plans, especially for lower-margin products like gloves, gowns and syringes.

Why it matters: 

The uncertainty is in some cases delaying spending decisions, including capital improvements, as health system administrators wait to see the effect of increased duties and whether manufacturers win exemptions from the Trump administration.

What they’re saying: 

“Hospitals are definitely feeling a pinch,” Mark Hendrickson, director of Premier’s supply chain policy, told Axios. “We’ve never seen tariffs for this long a period of time for this broad a portfolio of products in basically all of our lifetimes.”

  • “It’s really an uncertain enough environment that we’re cautioning members from panic buying and buying ahead,” he added. “We don’t want to drive artificial shortages of products that could be avoided.”

The big picture: 

The health care supply chain is already hard enough to navigate, with certain sterile injectable drugs and other essentials regularly going into shortage.

  • But President Trump’s existing and threatened tariffs are scrambling the calculus for health systems and the group purchasing organizations they contract with, as they seek a steady supply of what they need and identify possible new sources.
  • “Everyone in the supply chain, from hospitals to suppliers to manufacturers, is grappling with how to plan thoughtfully and proceed in a way that doesn’t either under- or over-correct for the potential impacts of these tariffs,” Akin Demehin, the American Hospital Association’s vice president of quality and patient safety policy, told Axios.

Between the lines: 

So far, there haven’t been clear price hikes or shortages.

  • But certain types of products are being watched more closely, starting with low-cost, high-volume items often imported from China such as PPE and disposable medical devices.
  • “Are there going to be instances where those low margin products are just not worth manufacturing anymore?,” Hendrickson said.

U.S. manufacturing of protective gear picked up during the pandemic, to alleviate foreign supply chain disruptions. But some of those sources dried up with the end of mask mandates and other public health measures, when hospitals went back to buying from overseas.

  • The hospital association is particularly concerned about critical minerals and derivatives used in medical imaging, radioactive drugs and other applications, which could be subject to sectoral levies imposed in the interests of national security.
  • Last month, the AHA sent a letter to the Trump administration calling for medical exemptions.

The bottom line: 

“We haven’t seen the bottom fall out,” Hendrickson said. “I’m hoping we don’t.”

Tariffs drive health plan premium hikes

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/18/tariffs-health-insurance-premium-hikes

Health insurers are starting to notify states that tariffs will drive up the premiums they plan to charge individual and small group market enrollees next year.

Why it matters: 

The Trump administration’s trade policy is adding another layer of uncertainty for health costs as Congress considers Medicaid cuts and is expected to sunset enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act coverage.

  • “There are sort of a perfect storm of factors that are driving prices up,” said Sabrina Corlette, research professor at Georgetown’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms.

The big picture: 

Health insurers calculate monthly premiums in advance of each year based on the expected price of goods and services and projected demand for them.

  • Tariffs announced by President Trump are expected to drive up the cost of prescription drugs, medical devices and other medical products and services. Some of that difference ultimately would be passed down to enrollees.

Where it stands: 

A handful of health insurers administering individual and small group plans have already explicitly told state regulators that tariffs are forcing plans to raise enrollee premiums more than they otherwise would next year, KFF policy analyst Matt McGough wrote in an analysis published Monday.

  • Independent Health Benefits Corporation told New York regulators in a filing last month that it plans to raise premiums for its individual market enrollees 38.4% next year.
  • About 3% of that is directly due to tariffs, based on projections of how much they’ll increase drug prices and the use of imported drugs, Frank Sava, a spokesperson for Independent Health, told Axios.
  • Similarly, UnitedHealthcare of Oregon said in a filing that nearly 3% of its planned 19.8% premium increase for small group enrollees next year is due to uncertainty around tariffs, particularly on how they’ll affect pharmaceutical prices.

Insurers “don’t have any historical precedent or data to project what this is going to mean for their business and health costs,” McGough said to Axios. “I think it really makes sense that they’re trying to hedge their bets.”

  • Insurers can’t change their premiums throughout the year. But if health plans do overshoot their premium estimates in rate filings, they have to pay enrollees back the difference in rebates.
  • While there may be a competitive advantage to keeping premiums lower, there isn’t really a way for insurers to make up for extra unplanned costs after the fact.

Yes, but: 

Some insurers indicated that while they’re keeping a close eye on tariff-related impacts, they aren’t baking them into their premium rates yet.

  • “There is uncertainty around inflation and the economy due to possible tariffs however we did [not] put anything for this in this filing,” Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Northwest’s report to Oregon reads.
  • State regulators can also push back on insurers’ premium calculations before they’re finalized, McGough noted.

What we’re watching: 

While some states have earlier deadlines, insurers have to submit their 2026 ACA marketplace plan rates to the federal regulators by July 16, and proposed rates will be posted by August 1.

  • That’s when we’ll get a better picture of how seriously tariffs are concerning health insurers.

Medicare Advantage Is Failing Its Mission. Here’s How Washington Could Finally Fix It

Bipartisan voices are calling for reforms to end waste and gaming in MA. Solutions are on the table — if policymakers choose to act.

In the first half of 2025, we have heard many leaders share their concerns with the current results of the Medicare Advantage (MA) program and the need for changes. Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, spoke multiple times about issues with upcoding in MA during his confirmation hearing. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also been vocal about the need for reform in MA, including the co-chairs of the GOP Doctors Caucus, Reps. Greg Murphy and John Joyce, and Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Most recently, CMS Deputy Administrator Stephanie Carlton spoke about these issues at the recent annual conference of the Association of Health Care Journalists in Los Angeles.

Carlton noted that the original intent of MA was “better outcomes for patients” and “better value for taxpayers,” but that the current program is not achieving those goals.

She specifically mentioned research from the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission and other groups showing that “MA is more expensive than fee-for-service”. Fee-for-service, in which health care providers are paid for each service provided to patients, is used in traditional Medicare. Carlton went on to describe the need to “course correct” the program. We wholeheartedly agree. 

Luckily, there are solutions to these issues within MA that both the executive branch and Congress can address. CMS has the authority to address upcoding, where insurers add more codes to a patient’s record to increase their reimbursement from the government, in multiple ways.

First, CMS should continue the changes to the risk-scoring system initiated under the Biden Administration, which removes codes that CMS determines are abused within the Hierarchical Condition Category system. Researchers have found that this method could largely eliminate current overpayments going to insurers, which total tens of billions of dollars a year. CMS also has the authority to increase the coding intensity adjustment, which is the factor by which risk scores are adjusted by the agency to account for greater coding intensity by MA insurers.

The coding intensity adjustment used by CMS is currently 5.9%, which is the statutory minimum. Research shows that the true coding intensity adjustment should be more than 20%; increasing it to this level would reduce Medicare spending by more than $1 trillion over 10 yearsThere are ways to achieve these savings while also promoting competition, which is why Republicans created Medicare Advantage in the first place, and not compromising quality. Finally, CMS should exclude codes added to a patient’s record from home health risk assessments (HRAs) performed by insurers. That’s because insurers have used HRAs to add codes for diagnoses that patients were never treated for, enabling them to pocket billions of taxpayer dollars. 

Carlton also shared her commitment to plans recently announced by CMS to substantially increase both the pace and the scale of Risk Adjustment Data Validation (“RADV”) audits of MA plans. CMS implemented changes in 2023 to increase the scope of audits and recoupment of overpayments from insurers beginning with 2018 audits, but progress has been painstakingly slow, with CMS originally slated to begin issuing 2018 audit findings in 2026. The intensified efforts will require needed investments in technology and people. 

Another issue diluting the value of MA to taxpayers is the excessive use of supplemental benefits of questionable utility, including things like gym memberships, which serve mainly as marketing tools for insurers. The money spent on such benefits has more than doubled over the past five years. 

Congress can also take action to reform MA in meaningful ways. First, Congress should work with the HHS Secretary and CMS Administrator and provide oversight and accountability to ensure necessary changes to the risk-adjustment methods and processes, including audits and recovery of overpayments.  It is also important to ensure that insurers and their downstream vendors are compliant with applicable CMS rules and regulations, both in terms of clinical and documentation requirements and the payments they receive for these activities. 

Congress could also pass legislation to develop a new risk adjustment system that prevents gaming by insurance companies.

This system could base risk scoring on data from patient encounters with their medical providers rather than just diagnostic codes. This would ensure that patients are treated for any diagnosis used in their risk scores, to ensure that extra diagnoses are not added that patients are not being treated for. Additional scrutiny of how MA rebates are being used and a re-evaluation of permissible benefits are also needed. Further, Congress could implement a cap on out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses for traditional Medicare beneficiaries. Currently, only MA plans offer a cap on OOP expenses, which reduces competition between MA plans and traditional Medicare. Adding an OOP cap to TM would level the playing field between MA and TM, likely resulting in MA plans improving their coverage and benefits, and focusing less on upcoding and withholding care. This would improve the quality of care and competition within the Medicare and MA programs. 

Insurance companies running MA plans have created a system in which taxpayers and patients are not getting the value they pay for.

It is promising that leaders in the current administration and on both sides of the political aisle in Congress are expressing a desire to change this system for the better. There are many solutions to the issues within MA that can be enacted quickly and effectively to improve care and value for seniors and people with disabilities who are enrolled in those plans.

Protect Medicaid For American Families

Medicaid is critical to our nation’s healthcare system, providing necessary care for more than 72 million Americans – including our neighbors and friends.

Who it Affects

Medicaid covers children, seniors in nursing homes, veterans, people with long-term chronic illnesses, those with mental health issues and working families.

The program helps keep Americans healthy at all stages of life, providing healthcare to families in need — especially as the country continues to recover from record-high inflation.

The Problem

Some policymakers are considering Medicaid cuts that would undermine coverage for countless patients and threaten Americans’ access to comprehensive, 24/7 hospital care.

Medicaid covers health services for patients who otherwise wouldn’t be able to pay for care. Coverage of services is essential for hospitals, and helps ensure all Americans have access to high-quality, 24/7 care, no matter where they live. 

Who Medicaid covers

Providing Lifesaving Healthcare Services

Medicaid covers patients with complex and chronic illnesses in need of long-term care, as well as emergency services and prescription coverage.

As the nation faces a growing mental health crisis, Medicaid also ensures millions of Americans — including veterans — have access to mental healthcare and substance abuse services.

Without access to affordable mental healthcare through Medicaid, veterans often lack the long-term support they deserve, and are left to deal with complex health issues years after their service.

The Threat To Rural America

Medicaid funding cuts pose a significant threat to patients in rural areas, who are more likely to suffer from chronic illness compared to their urban counterparts and are more reliant on Medicaid services in turn.

In these areas, where primary care providers are few and far between, hospitals become even more vital sites of care — and in some cases, the only sites of care available.

Rural hospitals, already more likely to be at risk of closure, rely on Medicaid funding to stay open and to continue providing lifesaving care to their patients. Nearly 150 rural hospitals have closed or converted since 2010 alone. Further cuts to care would eliminate a lifeline for Americans across the country — with devastating consequences for rural communities.

The Solution

Cuts to Medicaid funding will create irreparable harm for our nation’s most vulnerable communities, including millions of children, veterans, those with chronic illnesses, seniors in nursing homes, and working families. Medicaid helps provide security to these Americans, keeping them healthy at every stage of life.

Congress should vote against efforts to reduce Medicaid funding and instead focus on policies that strengthen access to 24/7 care, rather than take it away.

Workplace violence costs hospitals more than $18B: report

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/05/hospital-assaults-workplace-violence-costs

Assaults against health care workers are costing hospitals upward of $18 billion a year in added security, training, workers compensation and other expenses, including treating victims, according to a new industry report.

Why it matters: 

Attacks by patients and visitors in hospitals and clinics already were a problem before the pandemic and got worse with backlash against public health measures.

  • The American Hospital Association says there’s a human toll beyond the financial burden, with burnout, staff turnover, legal concerns and negative public perceptions all plaguing health systems.

By the numbers: 

The University of Washington report for the trade group found prevention measures like active shooter training, hiring more security and reinforcing entry points and creating designated safe areas cost health systems $3.6 billion a year.

  • The cost of care for fatal and nonfatal injuries, lost productivity and replacing damaged equipment and infrastructure total about $14.6 billion a year. Health expenses for treating injuries alone account for more than $13 billion of that amount.

Between the lines: 

Violent incidents most often occur in psychiatric units, emergency departments, waiting rooms and geriatric units, with rural areas having higher prevalence than urban areas, the report found.

  • Registered nurses, nursing assistants and patient care assistants experience particularly high rates of workplace violence. A 2024 American Hospital Association poll found half of U.S. nurses reported being either verbally abused, physically assaulted or both by a patient or a patient’s family member within the previous two years.

What we’re watching: 

Congress is again considering legislation that would make assaulting hospital staff a federal crime, similar to protections for flight crews and airport workers.

Megabill Healthcare Insurance Coverage Losses

The CBO projects that 10.9 million more people would be uninsured under President Trump’s sweeping budget bill — mostly from the way it would overhaul Medicaid, including new work requirements.

Why it matters: 

That would amount to major coverage losses that are certain to fuel Democratic attacks on the measure, and put new pressure on vulnerable Republicans heading into the midterm election cycle, Peter Sullivan wrote first on Pro.

By the numbers: 

The CBO on Wednesday projected that 7.8 million more people would be uninsured due to the Medicaid changes, with the rest likely due to Affordable Care Act marketplace changes, including new barriers to signing up that are aimed at fighting fraud.

  • The estimate includes 1.4 million people without verified citizenship “or satisfactory immigration status,” a reference to undocumented immigrants that some states opt to cover with non-federal dollars in their Medicaid programs.
  • The CBO was responding to a request from congressional Democrats about the number of uninsured people stemming from the package the House passed last month.

Republicans say the changes would ensure that Medicaid is targeted at beneficiaries deserving of coverage, and that taxpayer money should not be spent on healthy adults who are choosing not to work.

  • Opponents say people who are working will be caught up in the red tape from the changes and could still lose coverage.

The CBO also said another 5.1 million would become uninsured if Congress opts to let Affordable Care Act premium tax credit subsidies expire next year.

Cost to insure a family tops $35,000

The cost to cover a family of four through workplace insurance now exceeds $35,000, nearly triple what it cost 20 years ago as annual growth in health costs have far outpaced wages.

The big picture: 

Growing pharmacy and outpatient facility costs drove most of the increase, which includes employee and employer shares, according to the 2025 Milliman Medical Index.

  • Employers have been wary of passing health cost hikes to workers in a tight labor market, but the rising demand for costly care may force a reckoning.

State of play: 

The $35,119 annual cost to cover a hypothetical family of four this year factors in drug costs, inpatient and outpatient care, and professional services, along with an “other” category that includes home health, ambulance transport, medical equipment and prosthetics.

  • A year of health care cost a family of four $12,214 in 2005, the year Milliman launched the index. The 20-year cumulative gain of 188% outpaced the 84% growth in wages over the same time.
  • Health costs have increased about 6% per year on average over the past two decades, according to Milliman, compared with an average inflation rate of 2.5% over that time.

Between the lines: 

Employers in 2025 still shoulder 58% of employee health care costs, but their share has shrunk since 2005, when it was more than 60%.

Reality check: 

Health care costs vary significantly by age, geography and pharmacy rebate arrangements.

  • Milliman calculates family cost based on a family with a 47-year-old male, 37-year-old female, and children ages 4 and under 1.
  • This was a “mathematically average” family in 2005, and Milliman continues to use that formula to keep data comparable year-to-year.
  • The firm has an online tool that allows readers to input other family configurations to see their estimated 2025 health care costs.

The analysis is based on Milliman’s proprietary research tools and analyzes commercial claims data. The family cost figure reflects nationwide average negotiated provider fees and average PPO benefit levels.