Category Archives: Economic Crisis

Why Most Voters Oppose Schools Reopening

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Asymptomatic Transmission, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, National Strategy, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Public Safety, Public Schools, Public Trust, Quarantine, School Reopening, Scientists, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/08/21/why-most-voters-oppose-schools-reopening/#2df43b5b1822

Why Most Voters Oppose Schools Reopening

Even as test rates hover around six to seven percent and tens of thousands of new Covid-19 cases are being reported daily, school districts across the country will continue with plans to resume operations in the coming weeks. The latest survey data shows, however, that most Americans oppose reopening K-12 education in their states.

Parents have reason to be concerned that sending their children to school could bring the virus into their homes, as well as spike positivity rates in their communities. From July 30th to August 13th, over 75,000 new child Covid-19 cases were reported, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. The outcome would be disastrous were even one asymptomatic carrier to attend classes in the coming weeks.

A recent survey conducted by the Financial Times-Peterson Foundation US Economic Monitor revealed that six in ten voters oppose reopening K-12 schools in their states, while as many as 81 percent urge the prioritization of health among students and faculty over the economy. Were children to get sick at school, not only would their health be endangered, but so would the health of their families. There would be no economy without healthy parents, which is why the vast majority of Americans urge the safety of American students over the state of the economy.

One of the more prudent concerns about the resumption of K-12 education is the social nature of a student’s daily life. School districts are assuring parents that they have put preventative measures in place, such as social distancing and classroom hybridization. But to assume students will have no interaction at all seems ludicrous. Children and teens have been out of the traditional school setting for over five months and they will be ready to interact with others. 

Despite the urge shared by parents and children alike to return to normal, the average voter realizes that the pandemic in the United States is far from over. Parents want their children to stay healthy for many reasons—to ensure the physical health and wellbeing of the family, to ensure the economic livelihood of the family, and to avoid the unknown long term health risks associated with Covid-19. Around 65 percent of voters believe social distancing requirements and non essential business restrictions should be in place for at least another three months—a sacrifice many are willing to make for the sake of their families and children.

Such statistics also show that people recognize there will be several more months of abnormality and want decision makers to take action accordingly, even if it means deprioritizing the economy. Families and individuals have been economically crippled by the pandemic and the US government’s lack of public assistance. The official unemployment rate still hovers around ten percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low income families are struggling and eviction rates are sure to spike as rent moratoriums expire. These families have enough to worry about without the added pressure of sending their children back to school at this time.

The reopening of K-12 school districts in the coming weeks presents medical and economic challenges for families in the pandemic era, especially those already disadvantaged or experiencing hardship. Societal immunity is a long way off; as thirty five percent of voters said they would not be likely to get a COVID-19 vaccine were one approved and available by the end of the year, meaning children of those thirty five percent would also be unlikely to get vaccinated. With the inability to ensure the health and safety of students and the unknown economic future to come, schools are better off staying online for the time being.

 

 

 

 

The Science Behind Campus Coronavirus Outbreaks

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Asymptomatic Transmission, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, National Strategy, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Public Safety, Public Schools, Public Trust, Quarantine, Respect, Responsibility, School Reopening, Scientists, Social Distancing, Virtual Work, Virtual Workforce • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/21/the-science-of-campus-outbreaks/#4c5704ae6893

LSU frat parties become coronavirus 'superspreader events ...

Colleges And Universities Reverting To Online Instruction

On August 17, seven days after the start of in-person classes, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill announced that, due to a dramatic increase in Covid-19 on campus, all undergraduate classes would be held online for the remainder of the fall. Ithaca College and Michigan State pulled the plug on August 18. Two days later, N.C. State joined the club. More may follow. (The Chronicle of Higher Education maintains a live update feed.) In fact, only a minority of colleges and universities are still attempting fall instruction fully or primarily in person (about 25% at this writing).

Only time will tell if these rapid course changes were warranted and, of course, the answer may not be the same everywhere. Each institution is unique with respect to size, culture, infrastructure to provide online learning, and ability to cope with transmission.

What We Know About Infectious Diseases On College Campuses

In thinking about Covid-19 transmission on campus, it may be useful to know something about the science of epidemics among college students in general. There is a small scientific literature on disease outbreaks on campus. Campuses are special for several reasons. News photos of students lounging on green quads, engaged in late night study groups, or partying into the wee hours reminds us that if college is known for anything other than studying and college sports, it might be the unique gregariousness that attaches to what many people call the “college experience.”

Although outbreaks of infectious diseases on college campuses are routinely reported, there is little evidence that they are more explosive than in the general population. Outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases like measles, mumps, and whooping cough occur with some regularity and are typically contained through isolation and other public health measures. But, no study has been done to systematically examine how the campus environment differs from community-based transmission. 

Influenza is a particularly interesting case because, like Covid-19, it is a respiratory disease transmitted directly through close contact and also has a short incubation period. The basic reproduction number (R0) is a measure of the explosiveness of an epidemic, with anything over R0 = 1 indicating the possibility of sustained transmission.

In 2014, CDC and academic scientists compiled a list of all estimates of R0 for influenza. While most estimates for the 2009 pandemic were between 1 and 2, estimates from some schools (not necessarily colleges or universities) were noticeably higher (2.3 for a school in Japan and 3.3 for a school in the United States), although other cases (Iran and the United Kingdom) were similar to the rest of the population.

Perhaps more importantly, a study in Pullman, Washington (home to Washington State University) estimated R0 of the 2009 pandemic flu to be around 6, which is two to four times larger than most other estimates. So there is some evidence that campus contagions may be more prone to outbreak than other places.

Since Covid-19 is typically much less severe in young adults than in older adults, another question that seems particularly important now is whether transmission among students remains primarily within the student population or readily spreads to the rest of the community. 

In a measles outbreak at a university in China, the fraction of staff who were infected was not statistically different from the fraction of students. The total number of staff infected — three — was small, however, and it seems unlikely that this is the usual pattern.

A study of the 2009 influenza pandemic at the University of Delaware found that the risk of infection for people older than 30 was roughly half the risk of those that were 18 to 29.

An even more interesting aspect of the University of Delaware study is the association with student activities. Reports of influenza-like illness among students at a nearby emergency health center remained stable for almost a month after spring break. But cases increased almost five-fold following “Greek week”. In the final analysis, belonging to a fraternity or sorority doubled a student’s chances of being infected.

What’s Happening Now

This is concerning now as cases of Covid-19 are rising among college students nationwide. College leaders such as Penn State president Eric Barron, University of Kansas chancellor Douglas Girod, and University of Tennessee chancellor Donde Plowman have reproached students, especially fraternities and sororities, for ignoring guidance to avoid large gatherings.

Yesterday, J. Michael Haynie, Vice Chancellor for Strategic Initiatives and Innovation publicly excoriated students at Syracuse University for “selfishly jeopardizing” the possibility of in-person instruction this fall. “Make no mistake,” he wrote, “there was not a single student who gathered on the Quad last night who did not know and understand that it was wrong to do so.”

The science of Covid-19 tells us that students are vulnerable, just like everyone else. Although the evidence is somewhat thin, what there is points only in one direction: because of their specific social structure, college campuses are especially prone to outbreaks of infectious diseases. As in the rest of society, the only way to slow down the Covid-19 pandemic on college campuses is to reduce the rate of infectious contacts. There is too much value in the college experience to reduce it to partying, and it should not be squandered altogether for the sake of the party experience.

 

 

 

 

Sutter posts $857M loss in H1 on investment, operational declines

Posted on by • Posted in Antitrust, Cash, Cash Management, Cash Reserves, Coronavirus, Credit Quality, Credit Ratings, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Lawsuit Settlement, Liquidity, Market Outlook, Market Trends, Market Uncertainty, Net Income, Nonoperating Income, Operating Expense Reduction, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, Pandemic, The CARES Act • Leave a comment

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/sutter-posts-857m-loss-in-h1-on-investment-operational-declines/583910/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202020-08-21%20Healthcare%20Dive%20%5Bissue:29231%5D&utm_term=Healthcare%20Dive

California's Sutter Health reaps rewards from investments in ...

Dive Brief:

  • Sutter Health had a staggering loss of $857 million in the first half of the year as the Northern California health was bruised by the pandemic. That’s almost a $1.4 billion drop in income compared to the first half of last year, a plummet Sutter management largely blamed on investment and operational losses in its latest financial filing posted Thursday.
  • The virus shuttered operations for a period of time, driving Sutter’s revenue down 8% to $6.1 billion during the first half of the year. Expenses climbed nearly 2%, contributing to an operating loss of $557 million.
  • Still, the nonprofit noted it did experience a significant rebound in its investments in the second quarter after weathering the devastating effects of the first quarter.

Dive Insight:

Sutter joins other major nonprofit health systems in posting net losses for the first half of the year despite receiving hundreds of millions in federal grants to help offset headwinds brought on by the pandemic.

Recently, both Renton, Washington-based Providence and Arizona-based Banner Health posted losses for the first half of the year — $538 million and $267 million, respectively. Dampened revenue and downturns in investments contributed to their losses.

The federal government has funneled billions of dollars to providers across the country in an attempt to help them weather the downturn in patient volumes. Sutter noted in its filing that it’s received $400 million in federal relief funds so far, though that wasn’t enough to push the health system back into the black. Sutter operates 29 hospitals and enjoys a large presence in Northern California.

Sutter reported fewer admissions and emergency room visits in the second quarter compared to the prior-year period, down about 10% and 19%, respectively.

The pandemic was quick to wreak havoc on Sutter’s finances during the first quarter, in which the system reported an operating loss of $236 million and a net loss of almost $1.1 billion.

The coronavirus is also serving as a drag on its ratings. In April, two of the three big ratings agencies downgraded Sutter Health’s rating.

In part, Moody’s attributed the downgrade to Sutter’s weaker profitability profile. In its rationale, Moody’s said, “Following a second year of weaker results, margins in 2020 are likely to remain under pressure due to COVID-19 related disruptions, ongoing performance challenges at some of Sutter’s facilities, and continued reimbursement pressure.”

Also weighing on Moody’s rating is the $575 million settlement expected to be paid this year to resolve antitrust issues. Last year, the health system averted a trial over antitrust concerns after agreeing to a settlement with California regulators. Sutter agreed it would end any contracts that require all of its facilities to be in-network or none of them and cap out-of-network charges, among other stipulations.

 

 

 

 

Revenues and volumes have fallen ‘off a cliff’ hospital executives tell American Hospital Association

Posted on by • Posted in American Hospital Association (AHA), American Medical Association (AMA), American Nurses Association, Cash, Cash Management, Coronavirus, Deferred Healthcare, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Elective Procedures, Elective Surgery, Emergency Care, Health System, Hospital, Hospital Industry, Liquidity, Net Income, Nonoperating Income, Operating Expense Reduction, Operating Expenses, Operating Income, Operating Margin, Operating Performance, Operating Revenue, The CARES Act • Leave a comment

https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/aha-releases-case-studies-us-hospitals-and-health-systems-highlighting-financial-challenges

Revenues and volumes have fallen 'off a cliff' hospital executives ...

Eight health systems in AHA case study are asking Congress for more relief funding.

The American Hospital Association has released eight case studies from hospitals and health systems across the country that highlight how systems of different shapes and sizes are reacting to the financial challenges posed by COVID-19.

The case studies include Kindred Healthcare and TIRR Memorial Hermann in Houston; AdventHealth Central Florida Division in Orlando, Florida; the Loretto Hospital in Chicago; Kittitas Valley Healthcare in Ellensburg, Washington; Washington Regional Medical Center in Fayetteville, Arkansas; Banner Health in Phoenix; UR Medicine Thompson Health in Canandaigua, New York; and the Queen’s Health Systems and the Queen’s Medical Center in Honolulu.

Across the board, every case study revealed that hospitals and health systems are asking Congress for more relief funding.

“We are begging for more assistance and more help because we can’t keep moving forward,” said Michael Stapleton, the president and CEO of UR Medicine Thompson Health in New York.

WHAT’S THE IMPACT?

In Texas, the state with the third most COVID-19 cases, Kindred Healthcare and TIRR Memorial Hermann have begun to rely on inpatient rehabilitation facilities and long-term acute care hospitals to treat COVID-19-positive and medically complex recovering COVID-19 patients.

“In particular, as communities and hospitals struggled to meet ICU capacity needs, these hospitals stepped forward to take care of COVID-19-positive patients and others to help provide beds for more COVID-19-positive patients,” the case study said.

However, even with assistance from local facilities, post-acute care providers have incurred increased costs to prepare for and treat COVID-19-positive patients and complex post-COVID-19 patients.

“When you look at lost revenue and volumes, and the additional costs of ramping up to prepare for COVID-19, whether it’s personal protective equipment, respiratory systems, medications or facility infrastructure changes, there are significant dollars associated with that,” said Jerry Ashworth, the senior vice president and CEO at TIRR Memorial Hermann.

AdventHealth in Florida has taken financial hits from declining elective procedures and purchasing personal protective equipment. The company says it has lost $263 million since the start of the pandemic and has spent $254 million sourcing PPE.

“Florida is in the middle of the crisis,” said Todd Goodman, division chief financial officer of AdventHealth. “Our current COVID numbers are four times higher than the peak that we had back in April. We are bringing in higher-priced nurses and staff from other parts of the nation, because of a rapid increase in inpatient census. We are in a different place today than we were even six weeks ago.”

COVID-19 has disproportionately affected communities of color across the country, but especially in Chicago, where 30% of the population is Black. Forty-six percent of all COVID-19 cases and 57% of all deaths are Black people.

Despite having 70% of its admissions being related to COVID-19, the Loretto Hospital in Chicago has not received any funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act hot spot distribution.

“Our COVID-19 unit is full and has been for the last three months; we’re now at 296 COVID-19 patients [on July 16] and yet we’ve not received any of the COVID-19 high impact ‘hot spot’ payments,” said George Miller, the president and CEO of the Loretto Hospital. “We got the Small Business Administration loan to help keep our team members employed.”

Kittitas Valley Healthcare in Washington was among the first in the country to feel the impact of COVID-19. The rural delivery system and its critical access hospital postponed elective surgeries and many other nonessential services in response.

“Our revenues and volumes fell off a cliff,” said Julie Petersen, the CEO of Kittitas Valley Healthcare. “Our orthopedics programs, our GI [gastrointestinal] programs and cataract surgeries evaporated.”

Now, the hospital is off its original 2020 net revenue projections by $8.4 million.

After seeing a 12% rise in COVID-19 cases over a two-week period in Fayetteville, Arkansas, the Washington Regional Medical Center had 96% of its 40 intensive care unit beds occupied, a 20-bed COVID-19 ICU was completely full, and 298 of the facility’s 315 adult beds were occupied.

Taking care of these patients put the health system in a financial crisis. Its net patient revenue declined by $14 million in April. It furloughed 350 of its 3,300 employees and reduced the hours of 360 full-time workers, according to Larry Shackelford, the president and CEO of Washington Regional Medical Center.

On July 12, Banner Health in Arizona had more than 1,500 inpatients who either tested COVID-positive or are suspected of having COVID-19, representing 45% of the COVID-19 inpatient hospitalizations in the state, according to Dr. Marjorie Bessel, the chief clinical officer at Banner Health.

Banner expects operating losses of $500 million for 2020, compared to its initial expectations, with expected revenue losses approaching $1 billion for the year, according to the case study.

By mid-March, New York had 15 times more COVID-19 cases than any other state, according to the case study. Like the rest of the state, UR Medicine Thompson Health shut down many of its services, resulting in “insurmountable” financial losses and staff furloughs.

“Our first projection was a $17 million loss through the year-end,” Stapleton said. “We lost half of March, all of April and half of May. The hospital has received only $3.1 million from the CARES Act tranche payments.”

Although the Queen’s Health Systems and the Queen’s Medical Center in Hawaii are starting to reschedule appointments, surgeries and procedures that had been delayed by COVID-19, patients aren’t coming back as anticipated.

“Even with the pent-up demand for elective procedures, minimally invasive and even short-stay procedures are still down by about 18%. We are seeing our in-person clinic visits down by about 14%, and the emergency department (ED) is the one that surprised us the most – down by 38%,” said Jason Chang, president of the Queen’s Medical Center and chief operating officer of the Queen’s Health Systems and the Queen’s Medical Center.

The systems lost $127 million between March and May, according to Chang. He says the projected losses are about $60 million for 2021, but could reach $300 million if Hawaii experiences a second wave of COVID-19.

THE LARGER TREND

The AHA has cited $323 billion in losses industry-wide due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with U.S. hospitals anticipating about $120 billion in losses from July to December alone.

It was joined by the American Nurses Association and the American Medical Association to ask Congress to provide additional funding to the original $100 billion from the CARES Act. In a letter sent in July, the organizations asked for “at least an additional $100 billion to the emergency relief fund to provide direct funding to front line health care personnel and providers, including nurses, doctors, hospitals and health systems, to continue to respond to this pandemic.”

 

 

 

 

Millions of U.S. jobs to be lost for years, IRS projections show

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Chronic Care Management, Chronic Conditions, Chronic Diseases, Deferred Healthcare, Economic Crisis, Economic Recovery, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Essential Health Benefits, Health Insurance Coverage Adequacy, High Deductible Health Plans, High Drug Prices, High Premiums, High Prices, Job, Job Loss, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Out of Pocket Expenses, Preexisting Conditions, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured • Leave a comment

https://www.accountingtoday.com/articles/millions-of-u-s-jobs-to-be-lost-for-years-irs-projections-show?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202020-08-21%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:29224%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive

Millions of US Jobs to Be Lost for Years After Covid, IRS ...

The Internal Revenue Service projects that lower levels of employment in the U.S. could persist for years, showcasing the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

The IRS forecasts there will be about 229.4 million employee-classified jobs in 2021 — about 37.2 million fewer than it had estimated last year, before the virus hit, according to updated data released Thursday. The statistics are an estimate of how many of the W-2 tax forms that are used to track employee wages and withholding the agency will receive.

Lower rates of W-2 filings are seen persisting through at least 2027, with about 15.9 million fewer forms filed that year compared with prior estimates. That’s the last year for which the agency has published figures comparing assumptions prior to the pandemic and incorporating the virus’s effects.

W-2s are an imperfect measure for employment, because they don’t track the actual number of people employed. A single worker with several jobs would be required to fill out a form for each position. Still, the data suggest that it could take years for the U.S. economy to make up for the contraction suffered because of COVID-19.

The revised projections also show fewer filings of 1099-INT forms through 2027. That’s the paperwork used to report interest income — and serves as a sign that low interest rates could persist.

There’s one category that is expected to rise: The IRS sees about 1.6 million more tax forms for gig workers next year compared with pre-pandemic estimates.

That boost “likely reflects assumptions with the shift to ‘work from home,’ which may be gig workers, or may just be that businesses are more willing to outsource work — or have the status of their workers be independent contractors — now that they work from home,” Mike Englund, the chief economist for Action Economics said.

 

 

 

Florida Hits 10,000 Coronavirus Deaths—The Fifth State To Reach That Mark

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economy Reopening, Evidence-based Leadership, Evidence-Based Plan, Evidence-Based Policy, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, National Strategy, Pandemic, Positivity Rate, Public Health, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Public Safety, Public Schools, Public Trust, Quarantine, School Reopening, Scientists, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/20/florida-hits-10000-coronavirus-deaths-the-fifth-state-to-reach-that-mark/#29e05eb438f3

Florida Hits 10,000 Coronavirus Deaths—The Fifth State To Reach ...

TOPLINE

Over 10,000 Floridians have now died of coronavirus, marking a grim milestone that comes weeks after the state led the record U.S. coronavirus case surge earlier this summer.

 

KEY FACTS

10,049 Florida residents have died of coronavirus, according to the state, reaching that mark after adding 117 deaths Thursday.

Florida is the fifth state in the U.S. to record over 10,000 deaths, joining New York and New Jersey, where most deaths happened during the spring coronavirus surge, along with California and Texas, where most deaths occurred during the summer.

Florida has been the nation’s recent coronavirus epicenter, but the pandemic’s spread seems to have slowed there over the past few weeks, even as deaths, which lag behind other statistics, have been at record highs in the state.

New cases have recently reached their lowest daily increases in two months, and hospitalizations have trended downward since late July.

The testing positivity rate, seen as one of the first indicators of increased coronavirus spread, dropped below 10% Thursday—the first time the state has been below that threshold since June 21, and less than half the 20.71% positivity rate the state had at its highest point on July 8.

 

BIG NUMBER

23.8%. Gov. Ron DeSantis said that’s what the positivity rate was Thursday for antibody testing at state-run drive-through sites. That number suggests a massive amount of Floridians, much higher than the record-setting confirmed case counts, were infected with coronavirus this summer.

 

SURPRISING FACT

There are five U.S. states that have over 10,000 deaths. That’s a number that only 14 countries around the world have hit, according to Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. continues to have by far the most coronavirus deaths of any country and could reach 175,000 deaths before the weekend.

 

KEY BACKGROUND

The U.S. as a whole is on a downward trend when it comes to coronavirus metrics, which seems to be influenced by large states, like Florida, having a reduction in coronavirus spread.

States like California, Texas and Florida, the nation’s three most populated, were all setting records when the U.S. had its highest confirmed coronavirus spike earlier this summer. They now seem to be pushing the country in the other direction.

 

 

 

 

South Korea Warns Covid-19 Back In ‘Full Swing’ After Week-Long Case Spike

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Clinical Testing, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Recovery, Economy Reopening, False Hope, False Narrative, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Leadership Decentralized, Mortality, National Strategy, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Public Schools, Public Trust, Quarantine, School Reopening, Scientists, Social Distancing • Leave a comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/08/20/south-korea-warns-covid-19-back-in-full-swing-after-week-long-case-spike

South Korea Warns Covid-19 Back In 'Full Swing' After Week-Long ...

TOPLINE

South Korea officials warned Thursday that the country is in a “grave situation” after Covid-19 cases rose by triple digits for a week straight, as one of the countries most hailed for its success in containing the coronavirus sees a new resurgence of the virus linked to a far-right church and anti-government protest.

 

KEY FACTS

South Korea added 288 Covid-19 cases Thursday—slightly down from 297 cases Wednesday, the highest number observed in the country since March 8.

“Consider the COVID-19 pandemic now to be in full-swing,” Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deputy director Kwon Jun-wook said, warning that the country could experience similar sustained outbreaks to the U.S. and Europe without aggressive contact tracing.

The new case spikes are largely tied to Sarang Jeil Church, which has been linked to 676 recent cases, and a large anti-government rally held in Seoul Saturday in which many church members participated.

The outbreak is the second time a church has been linked to a large outbreak in the country—5,200 cases in February and March were linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus—but officials warn this one has the potential to be worse, and the New York Times notes anti-government sentiment among the church’s members may make efforts to contain the virus more difficult.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in has shut down churches in the country in response to the new outbreak, sparking a broader controversy as conservatives accuse the government of infringing on religious freedoms.

South Korea has been hailed for its effective response to the coronavirus, and was previously able to curb the Shincheonji church outbreak through widespread testing, self-isolation orders and contact tracing.

 

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“We are standing on the cusp of the nationwide outbreak,” Kwon said at a briefing Thursday. “The wider capital region should brace for a massive wave of the outbreak.”

 

BIG NUMBER

16,346: The total number of Covid-19 cases in South Korea since the start of the pandemic, as reported by Johns Hopkins University.

 

KEY BACKGROUND

South Korea is one of many countries to see a worrying resurgence of Covid-19 in recent weeks, as Europe and countries that had successfully contained the virus see new spikes.

Spain and Italy posted new Covid-19 case number highs Wednesday, while France reported Wednesday that it had recorded new Covid-19 cases at the highest rate since May.

Germany reported its highest case count since April on Thursday, with 1,707 new cases.

Outside of Europe, India experienced its highest daily total yet of new Covid-19 cases Thursday—69,672 cases, also the fourth highest daily total reported globally—while Japan reported that more than a third of its 59,213 cases have been recorded since the start of August alone.

New Zealand, one of the countries that had most successfully contained the virus, went back into lockdown last week after seeing Covid-19 spread through community transmission for the first time in 102 days; the outbreak has so far resulted in 80 new cases.

 

 

 

 

New unemployment claims top 1 million. Again.

Posted on by • Posted in 2020 Election Issues, Coronavirus, Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, Economic Stimulus, Employee Furlough, Employee Hiring Freeze, Employee Layoffs, Employee Pay Cuts, Employer-Based Health Insurance, Essential Health Benefits, Evidence-based Leadership, Evidence-Based Plan, Evidence-Based Policy, False Hope, False Narrative, Infection Control, Infection Control Plan, Infectious Virus, Job, Job Loss, Job Market, Job Search, Job Security, Leadership Decentralized, Mixed Message, Mortality, National Strategy, Pandemic, Public Health, Public Opinion, Public Perception, Public Safety, Public Schools, Quarantine, School Reopening, Scientists, Social Distancing, Underinsured, Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Uninsured, Wishful Thinking • Leave a comment

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/20/august-unemployment-claims/?wpmk=1&wpisrc=al_business__alert-economy&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert&pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJjb29raWVuYW1lIjoid3BfY3J0aWQiLCJpc3MiOiJDYXJ0YSIsImNvb2tpZXZhbHVlIjoiNWI2M2EzNDJhZGU0ZTI3Nzk1NTBjYTFiIiwidGFnIjoid3BfbmV3c19hbGVydF9yZXZlcmUiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vYnVzaW5lc3MvMjAyMC8wOC8yMC9hdWd1c3QtdW5lbXBsb3ltZW50LWNsYWltcy8_d3Btaz0xJndwaXNyYz1hbF9idXNpbmVzc19fYWxlcnQtZWNvbm9teSZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWFsZXJ0JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXdwX25ld3NfYWxlcnRfcmV2ZXJlJmxvY2F0aW9uPWFsZXJ0In0.ns8VggWJk95qb-c_2926acWIaHxyFIBXSRn76O7Lrf0

The number of people applying for the first time for unemployment insurance ticked up last week to 1.1 million, from 970,000 the week before, a sign that job losses continue to plague the labor market five months into the coronavirus pandemic.

The weekly jobless claims had sunk slowly in recent months but have remained well above historical highs, averaging about 1.18 million a week for the last four weeks. Economists had predicted last week’s figure to approach the numbers from the previous week, which had fallen below 1 million for the first time in about five months.

Instead, the initial claims and new claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the program available to gig and self-employed workers, both went up. About 543,000 new claims were filed for PUA for the week that ended on Aug. 15, up from 488,000 the week before.

“The fact that the claims are so high this far into the crisis is concerning,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at the job site Indeed. “Yet the depths of the damage remain to be seen. I would definitely call it a canary raising alarms in the economic coal mine.”

Data shows the number of job postings slowly recovering in recent weeks, compared with postings from the year prior. However, last week, postings took a turn for the worse. They had been running about 18 percent below normal and fell to 20.3 percent below normal last week.

“The longer we go into this crisis, the longer people that have been temporarily laid off may not get called back,” Konkel said. “Businesses can only ride out this crisis for so long.”

More than 28 million people were receiving some form of unemployment benefits as of Aug. 1, the most recent week for that statistic, about equal to the previous week.

Job loss from the pandemic remains a singular crisis, without comparison in modern times. The country’s unemployment rate, last calculated in July, was 10.2 percent, and economists have warned that it could go up in August as the virus continues to alter life around the country.

The extra $600 in unemployment benefits that many workers credit with keeping them afloat expired at the end of July. And funds from the $660 billion PPP program, which gave grants and loans to companies to keep workers on payroll, have been running out for many recipients.

Companies announcing layoffs in recent days include Wieland Copper Products, in North Carolina, a Mohegan Sun casino in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Amsterdam Printing & Litho, a printing company in Upstate, N.Y., and Ohio sales and marketing company Maritz. School districts and local governments are also beginning to experience deep cuts: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) warned last week that as many as 22,000 city workers faced possible layoffs in the fall.

 

 

 

 

Fearing a ‘Twindemic,’ Health Experts Push Urgently for Flu Shots

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Fearing a 'Twindemic,' Health Experts Push Urgently for Flu Shots ...

There’s no vaccine for Covid-19, but there’s one for influenza. With the season’s first doses now shipping, officials are struggling over how to get people to take it.

As public health officials look to fall and winter, the specter of a new surge of Covid-19 gives them chills. But there is a scenario they dread even more: a severe flu season, resulting in a “twindemic.”

Even a mild flu season could stagger hospitals already coping with Covid-19 cases. And though officials don’t know yet what degree of severity to anticipate this year, they are worried large numbers of people could forgo flu shots, increasing the risk of widespread outbreaks.

The concern about a twindemic is so great that officials around the world are pushing the flu shot even before it becomes available in clinics and doctors’ offices. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been talking it up, urging corporate leaders to figure out ways to inoculate employees. The C.D.C. usually purchases 500,000 doses for uninsured adults but this year ordered an additional 9.3 million doses.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been imploring people to get the flu shot, “so that you could at least blunt the effect of one of those two potential respiratory infections.”

In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been waging his own pro flu-shot campaign. Last month, he labeled people who oppose flu vaccines “nuts” and announced the country’s largest ever rollout of the shots. In April, one of the few reasons Australia allowed citizens to break the country’s strict lockdown was to venture out for their flu shots.

The flu vaccine is rarely mandated in the U.S. except by some health care facilities and nursery schools, but this month the statewide University of California system announced that because of the pandemic, it is requiring all 230,000 employees and 280,000 students to get the flu vaccine by November 1.

A life-threatening respiratory illness that crowds emergency rooms and intensive care units, flu shares symptoms with Covid-19: fever, headache, cough, sore throat, muscle aches and fatigue. Flu can leave patients vulnerable to a harsher attack of Covid-19, doctors believe, and that coming down with both viruses at once could be disastrous.

The 2019-20 flu season in the United States was mild, according to the C.D.C. But a mild flu season still takes a toll. In preliminary estimates, the C.D.C. says that cases ranged from 39 million to 56 million, resulting in up to 740,000 hospitalizations and from 24,000 to 62,000 flu-related deaths.

According to the C.D.C., flu season occurs in the fall and winter, peaking from December to February, and so was nearing its end as the pandemic began to flare in the United States in March.

But now, fighting flu proactively during the continuing pandemic presents significant challenges: not only how to administer the shot safely and readily, but also how to prompt people to get a shot that a majority of Americans have typically distrusted, dismissed and skipped.

With many places where the flu shot is administered en masse now inaccessible — including offices and plants that offered it free to employees on site and school health clinics — officials have been reaching out to local health departments, health care providers and corporations to arrange distribution. From now through Oct. 31, publicity campaigns will blast through social media, billboards, television and radio. Because the shot will be more difficult to access this year, people are being told to get it as soon as possible, although immunity does wane. There will be flu shot tents with heaters in parking lots and pop-up clinics in empty school buildings.

Because of the efforts, vaccine makers are projecting that a record 98 million flu shots will be given this year in the United States, about 15 percent more than doses ordered last year. The Kaiser Permanente health care system will be flooding more than 12 million of its members with flu shot reminders via postcard, email, text and phone calls.

Pharmacies and even supermarkets are expected to play a bigger role than they have in previous years. As of this week, Walgreens and CVS will have flu shots available. Walgreens will be hosting additional off-site flu vaccine clinics in community centers and churches. To reduce contact time, CVS is allowing patients to fill out paperwork digitally.

In New York City, which averages about 2,000 flu-related deaths a year, the health department has been reaching out to hundreds of independent pharmacies to administer the shots, because they are often located in outer-borough neighborhoods where the coronavirus has been rampaging. The health department has a detailed online flu vaccine locator.

“Access is a problem for all adult vaccines,” said L. J. Tan, chief strategy officer for the Immunization Action Coalition, a nonprofit group that works to increase vaccination rates, who was an early promoter of the term twindemic. “Adults may think, If I can get the flu shot easily, I might consider it.”

But as difficult as getting the flu shot to people safely will be, perhaps harder still will be persuading them to actually get it. In the 2018-19 flu season in the United States, only 45.3 percent of adults over 18 got the vaccine, with rates for those ages 18 to 50 considerably lower.

Skepticism to this vaccine runs high, particularly in communities of color because of longstanding distrust and discrimination in public health. A 2017 study in the journal Vaccine noted that, compared with white people, “African Americans were more likely to report barriers to vaccination, were more hesitant about vaccines in general and the flu vaccine specifically, more likely to believe in conspiracy theories and use naturalism as an alternative to getting vaccinated.”

Across all demographic groups, perhaps the most striking reason given for avoiding the flu vaccine is that people do not see it as efficacious as, say, the measles vaccine.

Indeed, it is a good vaccine but not a great one. It must be repeated annually. Immunity takes up to two weeks to kick in. But its efficacy also depends on how accurately infectious disease centers worldwide forecast which strains are expected to circulate in the coming year. And then those strains can mutate.

Although the flu shot confers immunity at all ages over six months, it can be less complete in people over 65. Depending on many factors, the shot’s effectiveness in a given year can range from 40 to 60 percent.

“But a vaccine not given won’t protect anyone,” said Dr. Jane R. Zucker, assistant commissioner for the Bureau of Immunization at the New York City Health Department, which has been hosting webinars for providers about how to have conversations about the flu shot with hesitant patients.

As health officials note, should a vaccinated person contract the flu, the severity will almost certainly be reduced, hospitalization rarely necessary. Especially with Covid-19 raging, public officials reason, those odds look pretty good.

Another reason people give for not getting the shot is they think it makes them sick.

“People who say ‘I’ll never get it because it gives me the flu’ have not had the flu and don’t know what it is,” said Patsy Stinchfield, senior director of infection prevention at Children’s Minnesota.

“What you’re feeling is your body’s immune response to the virus’s antigens,” said Ms. Stinchfield, a member of the C.D.C.’s influenza work group. “You may feel flu-ish. And that’s a good thing. It’s your body’s way of saying, ‘I am ready for the flu, and I won’t get as sick if I get the real one.’”

Public campaigns will describe the shot as a critical weapon during the pandemic. “Hopefully people will say, ‘There’s no Covid vaccine so I can’t control that, but I do have access to the flu vaccine and I can get that,’” Ms. Stinchfield said. “It gives you a little power to protect yourself.”

Other campaigns will emphasize familial and community responsibility.

Usually, flu vaccine compliance rates among people ages 18 to 49 are low. Vermont’s, for example, is only about 27 percent.

Christine Finley, the state’s immunization program manager, believes that rates will improve because of the pandemic’s stay-at-home households. “People are more aware that the risks they take can negatively impact others,” she said. “They’re often taking care of young children and older parents.”

If any example could prove instructive about protective behavior and flu vaccines during the coronavirus epidemic, it could well be Australia.

Australia’s flu vaccine rate tends to be modest, but this year demand was high. The government’s rollout of the shot began earlier than usual for the June-through-August winter because the coronavirus pandemic was exploding. Though the government had also issued strict no-entry limits among many states and territories and bans on international travel, the flu shot was one of the few reasons people could emerge from lockdown.

The prevalent strain circulating in the country is Type A, the most common and virulent form of flu, said Dr. Kelly L. Moore, a public health expert at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.

According to the C.D.C., Type A is the most likely to circulate globally. It mutates readily, particularly as it jumps between animals and humans.

“There are two strains of Type A influenza in the vaccine,” Dr. Moore said, “and so the very best way to protect yourself is to get the shot.”

Reported cases of flu in Australia have dropped 99 percent compared with 2019.

“Australia’s milder-than-usual flu season is likely the result of a number of factors — strong flu vaccination uptake, social distancing, but also severely decreased movement of people,” said Dr. Jonathan Anderson, a spokesman for Seqirus, a supplier of flu vaccine.

But though American public health authorities usually look to Australia’s flu season as a predictive, Australians say this year it’s not a reliable indicator.

“This situation is of no comfort as these measures do not apply to the United States where the populace has never been effectively physical distancing,” nor have the country’s entry restrictions been as onerous, said Dr. Paul Van Buynder, a public health professor at Griffith University in Queensland, Australia.

All that Americans can do is get vaccinated against flu, he added, because circulation of the coronavirus remains high.

“It is likely they will have a significant influenza season this northern winter,” he said.