2022 has disproven the old trope that “healthcare is recession-proof”. With the average family deductible nearing $4,000, a significant portion of healthcare services are exposed to consumer concerns about affordability. Reflecting the impact of the recession, health systems nationwide have reported sluggish volumes, particularly for elective cases, in the second half of the year.
One COO recently shared, “We’re 15 percent off where we expected to be on elective cases…We didn’t see the usual pick-up in early fall, after summer vacation. I’m not sure if it’s related to the economy, or whether demand changed during COVID, but this decline has eroded any possibility of a positive margin for the quarter.” The recession hit just as providers mostly finished working through the backlog of cases delayed by COVID in 2020 and 2021.
To determine whether demand declines are related to the current economic environment, or signal real shifts in care patterns, health systems are looking closely to see if the usual end-of-year swell of demand for elective care materializes, as patients max out their deductibles. But even if the demand is there, some systems are worried about being able to accommodate it: “We’ve been so short-staffed for nurses and surgical techs, we’ve had to intermittently take some ORs and units offline…If we get a big December spike in elective care, I’m not sure we’ll have the staff to accommodate it.” Facing the triple threat of sky-high costs, sluggish demand, and a worsening payer environment, the ability to accommodate this demand will be critical to securing margins as providers move into 2023.
Hospitals are nearing the end of an exceptionally difficult year for finances with a slight downturn to their operating margins and smaller likelihood of ending the year in the black.
Kaufman Hall’s November “National Hospital Flash Report” — based on data from more than 900 hospitals — found hospitals’ median operating margin was -0.5 percent through October. Operating margins dropped 2 percent from September and 13 percent from October 2021.
High expenses continued to outpace revenues, particularly labor expenses. Total labor expenses are up 10 percent year to date and up 3 percent from September to October alone. Total non-labor expenses are up 5 percent year to date and held flat from September to October.
Hospitals saw a 3 percent boost in emergency department visits and 2 percent boost in operating room minutes in October, with a 2 percent increase in gross operating revenue from the month prior.
At the same time, hospitals struggled to discharge patients in October due to shortages of labor both internally and in post-acute settings, which resulted in a 3 percent increase in length of stay that did not translate to additional revenue.
Increased ED traffic could strain hospitals’ workers if staff shortages complicate or prevent patient admissions, leading to ED boarding. A dozen medical groups recently alerted President Joe Biden to ED boarding reaching a “crisis point” and becoming a public health emergency.
“Every aspect of patient care — from being admitted, to treatment, to discharge — is affected by the labor shortage and as we head into the virus season and potential new waves of COVID-19 the pressures on hospitals and their staff could mount,” Erik Swanson, senior vice president of data and analytics with Kaufman Hall, said.
In September, Kaufman Hall noted that expense pressures and volume and revenue declines could force hospitals to make “difficult decisions” about service reductions and cuts.
Hospitals saw operating margins continue to erode in October, declining 12% from September under the weight of rising labor costs, according to a national median of more than 900 health systems calculated by Kaufman Hall. It was the second consecutive monthly drop and comes as facilities are preparing for the fast-spreading omicron variant of the coronavirus.
Although expenses remained highly elevated, patient days and average length of stay fell for the first time in months in October, likely reflecting lower hospitalization rates as the pressure of treating large numbers of COVID cases began to ease, Kaufman Hall said in its latest report.
At the same time, operating room minutes rose 6.8% from September, pointing to renewed patient interest in elective procedures.
Dive Insight:
Doctors and nurses have barely caught a breath from the most recent surge in inpatient volumes driven by the delta variant. Now, hospitals face the possibility of a fresh wave of cases led by omicron.
“Performance could continue to suffer in the coming months as hospitals face sustained labor increases and the uncertainties of the emerging omicron variant,” according to the Kaufman Hall report.
The new variant has not been detected in the U.S. as of Wednesday morning, but Canada is amongthe 20 countries that have confirmed cases.
Scientists are scrambling to understand the characteristics of the omicron variant. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a White House press briefing Tuesday that omicron’s mutation profile points to “increased transmissibility and immune evasion.” But it is too soon to tell whether omicron will cause more severe disease than other COVID-19 variants, or how well current vaccines and treatments work against it, Fauci said.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times he thought existing vaccines would be less effective against omicron than earlier variants. Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and other manufacturers are already working to adapt their vaccines to combat the new threat, first reported by South African scientists on Nov. 24.
Regeneron also said its COVID-19 antibody drug, the top-selling treatment in the U.S., might be less effective against omicron. The company said it is now conducting tests to determine how the variant affects its drug.
The median hospital operating margin, not including federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act funding, was down 31.5% in October, compared to pre-pandemic levels in the same month of 2019, according to Kaufman Hall’s snapshot. Hospitals in the West, South and Midwest that were hardest hit by the delta variant saw year-over-year margin declines.
Total labor expenses rose nearly 3% from September to October, 12.6% compared to October 2020 and 14.8% compared to October 2019, Kaufman Hall said. Full-time equivalents per adjusted occupied bed decreased 4.5% versus 2020 and 4% versus 2019, suggesting higher salaries due to nationwide labor shortages, rather than increased staffing levels, are driving up labor expenses.
Total non-labor expenses, however, decreased 1% in October from September for supplies, drugs and purchased services, following months of increases.
“Broader economic trends such as U.S. labor shortages are adding to the extreme pressures of the pandemic. Hospitals face greater uncertainties in the coming months as a result, as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations appear to once again be on the upswing before many have even had a chance to recover from the last surge,” Erik Swanson, a senior vice president of data and analytics at Kaufman Hall said.
Tenet and its subsidiary USPI have entered into a $1.2 billion deal to acquire ambulatory surgery center operator SurgCenter Development, expanding on a previous $1.1 billion cash deal inked with SCD last year.
Under the new deal announced Monday, Tenet will acquire SCD’s ownership interests in 92 ambulatory surgery centers and other support services in 21 states.
In addition to the acquisition, USPI and SCD plan to enter into a five-year partnership and development agreement in which SCD will help facilitate “continuity and support for SCD’s facilities and physician partners.” USPI will also have exclusivity on developing new projects with SCD during the five-year agreement.
Dive Insight:
Despite being a legacy hospital operator, Tenet’s outpatient surgery business is key to its long-term strategy.
After the latest deal closes, USPI will operate 440 surgery centers in 35 states, Tenet said Tuesday. The acquisition will boost USPI’s footprint in existing markets, such as Florida where it already operates 47 centers and will gain an additional 15. USPI will also enter new markets, such as Michigan, with a sizable footprint at the outset, executives said Tuesday.
The deal includes 65 mature centers and 27 that have opened in the past year or will soon open and start performing their first cases. Tenet may also spend an additional $250 million to acquire equity interests from physician owners.
Tenet leaders touted SCD’s service line mix, pointing out that a significant portion of the cases performed by these centers are for musculoskeletal care, which includes total joint and spine procedures.
The deal is expected to generate $175 million in EBITDA during the first year, executives said.
SVB Leerink analysts characterized the deal as savvy and said it will reshape the company’s earnings towards a “faster growing, higher margin, and improved capital return profile.”
Heading into 2021, Tenet had expected a greater share of its earnings power to come from its outpatient surgery business. This deal accelerates that aim over the long-term.
In 2014, Tenet’s ambulatory surgery business accounted for just 5% of the company’s overall earnings. Prior to this latest deal, Tenet expected the unit to account for 42% of its overall earnings in 2021.
This latest announcement follows Tenet’s deal in October with Compass Surgical Partners to acquire its ownership and management interests in nine ambulatory surgery centers located in Florida, North Carolina and Texas for an undisclosed sum.
For the past three years, Kaufman Hall has surveyed hospitals and health systems on their performance improvement and cost transformation efforts. This year, these efforts met an historic challenge with the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pandemic’s impacts have been severe. Entire service lines were shut down as state governments required or strongly encouraged suspension of elective and non-emergency procedures, in part to conserve critical resources—including personal protective equipment—in the early days of the pandemic. Supply chains were disrupted, with organizations that had come to rely on “just in time” inventory practices scrambling to secure the resources needed to ensure the safety of patients and frontline clinical staff. The healthcare workforce came under incredible pressure, confronting a crisis that threatened to overwhelm the health system’s capacity to treat patients.
In a year unlike any other, our annual survey moved away from the questions of earlier years. We have focused on the impacts of COVID-19 on hospital and health system performance. Then, through interviews with survey respondents on the front line of the battle with COVID-19, we have sought to understand how health system leaders are seeking to find a path forward amid uncertainty that will likely stretch through 2021, if not beyond.
Key findings from this year’s report include the following:
Financial viability. Approximately three fourths of survey respondents are either extremely (22%) or moderately (52%) concerned about the financial viability of their organization in the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment.
Operating margins. One third of our respondents saw year-over-year operating margin declines in excess of 100% from Q2 2019 to Q2 2020.
Volumes. Volumes in most service areas are recovering slowly. In only one area—oncology—have a majority of our respondents seen volumes return to more than 90% of pre-pandemic levels.
Expenses. A majority of survey respondents have seen their greatest percentage expense increase in the costs of supplying personal protective equipment. Nursing staff labor is in second place, cited by 34% of respondents as their most significant area of expense increase.
Healthcare workforce. Three fourths of survey respondents have increased monitoring and resources to address staff burnout and mental health concerns.
Telehealth. More than half of our respondents have seen the number of telehealth visits at their organization increase by more than 100% since the pandemic began. Payment disparities between telehealth and in-person visits are seen as the greatest obstacle to more widespread adoption of telehealth.
Competition. Approximately one third of survey respondents believe the pandemic has affected competitive dynamics in their market by making consumers more likely to seek care at retail-based clinics.
Here are nine hospitals and health systems with strong operational metrics and solid financial positions, according to reports from Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings.
1. St. Louis-based Ascension has an “AA+” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The system has a strong financial profile and a significant presence in several key markets, Fitch said. The credit rating agency expects Ascension will continue to produce healthy operating margins.
2. Phoenix-based Banner Health has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch and S&P. Banner’s financial profile is strong, even taking into consideration the market volatility that occurred in the first quarter of this year, Fitch said. The credit rating agency expects the system to continue to improve operating margins and to generate cash flow sufficient to sustain strong key financial metrics.
3. Cincinnati-based Bon Secours Mercy Health has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The health system has a good payer mix, a leading position in several of its markets and adequate margins to support its growth, Fitch said. The credit rating agency expects the system to maintain strong operating profitability.
4. Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia has an “Aa2” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s and an “AA” rating and stable outlook with S&P. The hospital has a strong market position and healthy liquidity, Moody’s said. The credit rating agency expects CHOP’s market position and brand equity will support its recovery from disruption caused by COVID-19.
5. Milwaukee-based Children’s Wisconsin has an “Aa3” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s and an “AA” rating and stable outlook with S&P. The health system has strong cash flow margins, Moody’s said. The credit rating agency expects the health system’s financial performance to remain solid, given its commanding market presence and demand for services.
6. Philadelphia-based Main Line Health has an “AA” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The credit rating agency expects the system’s operations to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic and for it to resume its track record of strong operating cash flow margins.
7. Midland-based MidMichigan Health has an “AA-” rating and stable outlook with Fitch. The system has generated healthy operational levels through fiscal year 2020, and Fitch expects it to continue generating strong cash flow.
8. Columbus, Ohio-based Nationwide Children’s Hospital has an “Aa2” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s. The system has a strong market position in pediatric services in Columbus and the broad central Ohio region, and its advanced research capabilities will support volume recovery from disruption caused by COVID-19, Moody’s said. The credit rating agency expects Nationwide Children’s margins to remain strong and for cost management initiatives and volume recovery to drive improvements.
9. Chicago-based Northwestern Memorial HealthCare has an “Aa2” rating and stable outlook with Moody’s. The health system had strong pre-COVID margins and liquidity, Moody’s said. The credit rating agency expects the system to maintain strong operating cash flow margins.
Dubai is proud to introduce its impressive fleet of the “world’s largest ambulances,” or “Mercedes-Benz large-capacity ambulances” which were created to give rapid medical assistance in the event of major emergencies with large numbers of causalities. These new emergency vehicles offer a fully-equipped, mobile clinic with an intensive-care unit and an operating room.
Equipped with an X-ray unit and ultrasonic equipment for further evaluation, each super ambulance bus carries 12,000 liters of oxygen, which ensures a dependable supply for up to three days. With the press of a button, oxygen masks fall from special holders, and the oxygen flow to each mask can be individually controlled.
They’re also equipped with an ECG and an InSpectra shock monitor, which monitors the oxygen saturation in tissue-matter and warns doctors of the onset of shock minutes before it occurs. This unit can also detect and monitor internal bleeding. If an emergency caesarian birth is needed, essential obstetrical instruments, including an incubator, are on board.
Seattle Children’s Hospital has filed a lawsuit to block the release of health department records regarding mold at its facility, according to court documents cited by King 5.
The hospital’s legal team filed an amended complaint in an attempt to block the release of state and county health records.
Documents previously released to the media through a public records request revealed a nearly 20-year history of Aspergillus mold in the air handling system of the hospital’s operating rooms.
Most recently, an infant at Seattle Children’s Hospital died Feb. 12 after she developed a mold-related infection acquired at the facility, the seventh mold-related death since 2001.
The health records sought by the media are “confidential and sensitive,” Adrian Urquhart Winder, attorney for Seattle Children’s, said, according to King 5. The attorney cited a state law that says records produced for quality improvement purposes cannot be publicly disclosed.
On Jan. 10, Mark Del Beccaro, MD, former CMO and senior vice president of Seattle Children’s Hospital, resigned, according to a hospital spokesperson. King 5 could not reach Dr. Del Beccaro for comment.
HENRY KOTULA 